BG's posted MLB plays at peeps in 2012 crushed the closing line. His posted plays at Betting Talk in 2013 were ~0ev according to close (they won some 35 units in 150 plays though) he mentioned changes in the offshore market made him less concerned with that (prior to the season). And yes there were some major changes (pinny credit going away, limits going from 30 to 10k).
His line value this year has been worse(slightly -ev vs pinny close), over way more plays than his last few posted seasons combined. So what happened? I don't know. He mentioned his past posting always being just a handful of his plays while his tout service has given out everything. I also do know that his plays are all modeled, so something clearly went wrong there. There was a point early in the season when i was still betting them that some random factors that are all luck were all just running absurdly bad (like think 20 blown saves for vs 0 against), but once you get to -65 units in 600 plays (into 10c lines) you kind of have to assume you've lost your edge.
The thing about Modeling is that it's just as much art as it is science. Sports change over time, the gambling markets change over night (due to legal issues). I've made a number of models over the years that properly back tested (most people do not properly back test) show a profit, that going forward don't win. I don't know anyone that does this though that isn't constantly looking to improve their models.
I'm curious what you think happened in NBA, this clown on BT keeps saying all the syndicates got killed on nba totals last year -- but 2.5+ moves from pinny open to close ran pretty well.