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Can winning players make the house money if they bet a LOT and win just a little?


The Seer
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Here is a winner from a 2012 NFL contest but notice that @ -110, he bet 37,650 and therefore, paid 3,765.00 in vig while taking home only a $659.00 profit. Stated with 5,000. [TABLE=class: cms_table_yiv160303495std cms_table_yiv160303495results]

[TR]

[TD]BERNIEVEGAS (77-67-7)[/TD]

[TD=class: cms_table_yiv160303495textright]5,659[/TD]

[TD=class: cms_table_yiv160303495textright]37,650[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

 

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The contest was @ -110. I posted this here because it was joked about at EOG. No one has ever answered the question: did Bernnie make the book money? I get no a lot.

 

gotta find ways to avoid paying the -110 with multiple outs and betting home dogs and props

Seer, you still coachin football?

 

No. I am 67 now with back troubles My osteopathic doctor is Dr. (Win) Lyle who works on Tiger football players. He looks like he is 35. He was an Auburn kicker about 1981.

 

 

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I think it comes back to the old question "Who pays Vig"

 

 

Who cares? You must shop for the best line as that is a direct payout to the book. -110 is ~4.5%, with any decent shopping or getting in earlier you can drop a 1% or so off that which will add to your long term bottom line.

 

The argument of who pays is forum bullshit.

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...why not post something useful?

 

OK. Here is something useful.

1 If Auburn convers games 1 and 2, it is common for the line to get so high that Tiger bettors lose ATS in game 3. First noticed this in 2006 vs LSU. Week three is also when the opponents get serious too. K-State this year.

2 Super Bowl champs get too much chalk opening day. Take Packers +5.

3 Amazon.com sells a package of 300 razors for $29.95 Great for the locker room or other place they are disposed of in one use.

4 More than a pea size glob of toothpaste is a waste like washing your hair twice like bottle instructions.

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Think about this from the books point of view -- they believe every line will hit either way 50% of the time. This means that they are making 10% off of every bet placed (assuming long term equal action). They want as many bets as possible since the 10% is guaranteed.

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OK, the average punter is NOT hitting 50% wins (remember if you are betting against a -110 line, you need to be hitting ~52.5% to break even). Joe Six-pack is betting overs and favorites and getting shorn to the tune of 47-48% wins long term, that's an extra 2-3 % for the book's hold due to these poor schmucks. When you talk to the guys behind the teller stations (I talked to one guy who claimed to do this), they want to see at least a 5% hold, with 6 & 7% possible when conventions are in town. They get down to 3%, heads roll. This is the big reason they limit or ban sharp bettors...as they see them as being a direct threat to their jobs.

 

Now, I'd love to hear from someone in the know as verification to this...not from the usual yappy clowns.

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This contest was 2011-2012. About 15 players were above par. out of 133 starters. I put it in an NFL thread.

 

 

dude, the SEAHAWKS won the Hyperbowl...

 

...what century are you living in?

The Packer line has moved to +6. Put some on the ML at +177 too. You had me going for a while there. Packers open vs Seahawks

 

September 04, 2014

 

20:30 ET

461

Green Bay Packers

 

+177

 

+6 (-115)

 

o45 (-110)

 

 

462

Seattle Seahawks

 

-220

 

-6 (-105)

 

u45 (-110)

 

 

 

 

 

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  • 5 years later...

books could care less about equal action on both sides

 

its true lines move toward the actual winner but never enough to cover the juice

 

the vig on a -110 -110 normal bet is >4% but books make the 6 7 8 9 % holds with parlays, teasers and futures, futures are a huge money maker

 

circa just posted NFL champ futures with a 16% hold

 

think of this banks give you 1 2 % to hold your money, Circa holds your money and charges you 16% and that is cheap compared to others

 

even action on both sides does not exist, books have a side  on nearly every market they take bets on

 

books need the exact same thing we need 

1 tons of volume to overcome or minimize variance

2 and the line value of the VIG  (+EV) to win long term

 

I mentioned lines move toward the actual winner let me explain a bit

 

say a book posts a game at simple math +100 and +100 50-50 

 

now when the game closes it moves to -105 and +105

 

the -105 team or the team where the line moves their way WINS more, this is fact, there is data to support that

 

now the problem is overall it never has moved enough to cover the huge vig, so chasing lines that move toward a team is NOT profitable but technically if you did you would lose less

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