NFL GREEK INSIDER WEEK 3

[jimmythegreek]

Houston PK at NYG:

After owning the league's worst record last season, Houston (2-0) already has a chance to surpass it's win total from 2013 (2-14). The same however, could not be said for the NY Giants (0-2) who are headed for a second straight 0-6 start if they do not find themselves on both sides of the ball. Last week the Texans forced 4 turnovers and Arian Foster (55-241 4.4 1 TD) ran for 138 of Houston's 188 rushing yards. Houston went on to obliterate Oakland 30-14 in a contest that was never close from the opening kickoff. The winless Giants committed 4 turnovers, were held to 81 yards rushing and showed no rhythm throughout on offense as Arizona beat big blue 25-14. The win improved the Cards to 2-0 overall.

 

The Texans own the second highest turnover margin at +5 second behind Carolina (+6). Ryan Fitzpatrick (28/41 345 3 TD) has found new life after coming off a series of mediocre stints for a long time at Buffalo and last season with Tennessee. The 10 year veteran had just 139 yards passing in the win over the Raiders, but threw 2 TD passes. A one yard toss to DE JJ Watt opened the scoring and later a 15 yard strike to DeAndre Hopkins (7-111 2 TD) proved to be the game winner. Andre Johnson (12-167) has yet to catch a scoring pass but has been a key factor thus far and should see more success against one of the league's more vulnerable secondaries. Foster has the ability to gain yards in bunches on long successful drives as evident by his seasonal and career ypc, and that may take some of the pressure off of Fitzpatrick.

 

Eli Manning (44/72 440 3 TD 4 INT) is off to yet another rough start in an offense that has mustered just 28 points in 2 losses. The 2 time Super Bowl Champion threw for 279 yards and 2 scores in the loss to the Cards but was also again picked off twice. The play in the special teams has also looked shaky with no big breakthroughs on kick or punt returns. Ted Ginn Jr. returned a punt 71 yards to paydirt that gave Arizona the lead for good and extinguished any kind of rally in week 2. Victor Cruz (7-72) is pleading for Manning to throw him the ball but a scheme of double coverage combined with several drops has not generated any type of flow nor chemistry. Larry Donnell (12-137 1 TD) has uncharacteristically been Manning's top target while Rashard Jennings (34-110 3.2 1 TD) has also gotten a chunk of the throws (8-950 his way in the flat. Cruz seems these days to be drawing more attention to himself rather than the game plan, much to the dismay of the fans looking for a more fluid tempo in the passing game.

 

Fitzpatrick could find success against a Giants secondary that was expected to be a strength of the team, but ranks just 21st in passing yards allowed. Big blue did record 4 sacks last week of Drew Henson, but crumpled under pressure to make a big play in the decisive frame. Foster's speed up the middle behind the Houston offensive line could favor over the presence of Jason Pierre Paul. The Giants have not yet forced a turnover so it will be important for Jameel McCLain to put pressure on Fitzpatrick. Simultaneously, the combination of utility man Watt and Jared Crick could force Manning to make quick decisions in and out of the pocket with a 3 DL defensive scheme more often than not.

 

While it might be only week 3, mistakes and failing to capitalize on drives continues to cost the Giants opportunities on offense and a disadvantage in time of possession. Manning's accuracy has been deflated by the receiving corp not being on the same page. If the Giants cannot stop Foster, Fitzpatrick will successfully mix up the pass and run especially if megatron can finally get going. Lay the short number here.

[jimmythegreek]

ndianapolis -7 over Jacksonville (bought half):

It's been over 2 years since Indianapolis (0-2) has experienced back to back losses under head coach Chuck Pagano. Dropping their first 2 games by a combined total of 10 points, Andrew Luck and company will look to notch their first when the Colts visit Jacksonville (0-2) who comes off a 31 point rout last week at Washington. In week 2 last Monday night Indianapolis blew a 13 point lead to Philadelphia, the team Jacksonville lost to in their opener, only to see Codey Parkey kick a game winning field goal as time expired.

 

Luck (55-87 542 5 TD 3 INT) got an unexpected big boost from the usually much maligned running game last week. Trent Richardson (27-99 3.7) gained 79 yards on 21 carries (3.8) after failing to make an impact in the opener against Denver. Ahmad Bradshaw (16-85 5.3) caught 6 passes for 70 yards but Philly's defense eventually clamped down man to man forcing Luck to go mostly underneath. Reggie Wayne (12-126) was held to just 3 catches, and TY Hilton (11-106) suffered a groin injury making him questionable tomorrow. Former Giant Hakeem Nicks (6-32 1 TD) has also not made much of an impact and is also limited due to an illness. Jacksonville's secondary has been demoralized over the first 2 weeks and Luck has a chance to revitalize the passing game with a more balanced and through attack.

 

The Jaguars may have suffered a continuation hangover from week 1 after allowing 34 second half points to Philly. Chad Henne (38/71 459 3 TD 1 INT) has been relatively mediocre but has taken care of the ball for the most part. However the lack of running game has made it tough for the Jags to go beyond one dimension. The Jaguars have just 89 total rushing yards and can't fall behind too quickly like last week otherwise there will be less protection and more snap decisions for Henne. Allen Hurns (6-123 2 TD) must find a rhythm in the passing game that was efficient in week 1. Marcedes Lewis (8-106 1 TD) is the other of Henne's top targets, but is on IR designated to return. Toby Gerhart (25-50 2.0) has to be more of a factor if Jacksonville hopes to hang in. The trouble for the Jags as well is that Marqise Lee is out (hamstring), and starting WR Cecil Shorts III (hamstring) may finally see his first action Sunday.

 

The Colts need to get their pass rush going this week. Bjoern Werner, Jonathan Newsome, and others need to get pressure on Henne. While it's hard to imagine the pass rush being a bigger concern than it already is, that's exactly what will happen even against the more weaker opponents. Coming off a game where Henne was sacked 10 times, Colts fans have to think that they're due to rack up some sacks, but with the Jaguars going against such an anemic pass rush, the success may come down to how efficient Henne is with his receivers. The achilles heel of the Jaguars defense is the inability to cover fade and corner routes against opposing receivers. If Luck doesn't create turnovers, the matchups could be rather one-sided throughout.

[jimmythegreek]

New England -14 over Oakland (bought half):

New England (1-1) got back on track against Minnesota last week, but their passing offense at times still seems to struggle failing to perform fluidly like a well-oiled machine in years past. They may have much more success tomorrow in their home opener against Oakland (0-2) who never really had a chance in a 30-14 week 2 loss to Houston. Tom Brady's 78.8 passer rating is lowest in the league. While his counterpart Derek Carr is still learning, the rest of this matchup on paper could easily follow the script on the field.

 

Despite 292 total yards against the Vikings, who were without Adrian Peterson, the Patriots scored 30 unanswered from late in the first quarter. Brady (43/77 398 2 TD) threw for just 150 yards last week thus still remains efficient with an adequate receiving core. Julian Edelman (12-176 1 TD) and Rob Gronkowski (8-72 1 TD) remain the catalysts for Brady, but Danny Amendola and Kembrell Tompkins have thus far been invisible. Brady has a formidable backfield in Stevan Ridley (33-122 3.7 1 TD) and Shane Vereen (13-76 5.8 1 TD) and could utilize the ground game more often if Oakland can't counter New England's up tempo offense. Brady should endure more success against the vulnerable Raiders defense in the secondary and the front seven which is clearly undersized up front.

 

Carr (47/74 414 3 TD 2 INT) enjoyed most of his success last week with the outcome already decided. The rookie from Fresno St threw for 267 yards and a score was also picked off twice after a respectable debut against the Jets. James Jones (12-146 2 TD) caught 9 passes for 112 yards and a TD, but Mychal Rivera (8-62)was held in check. Carr also scrambled for 58 yards on 4 carries (14.5) , but Darren McFadden (16-52 3.3 1 TD) doesn't seem to have that trademark burst of speed out of the backfield like in years' past. Heck, Maurice Jones Drew (9-11 1.2) has not been a factor and is questionable with a hand injury. Carr and company need to develop confidence and veteran leadership around his offense, but it's equally important that the defense doesn't dig him a hole early.

 

This is a year when you can’t expect much from Oakland. They have a decent amount of rebuilding to do on offense and need a lot of help in stopping the run on defense. This is a team that is solid against the pass (2nd), but they cannot stop the run (32nd). Safety Tyvon Branch leads the team with a total of 19 tackles, while linebacker Sio Moore is second with 18. The New England secondary has improved a lot since last season. The squad has a total of five interceptions. The defense has also made seven sacks. LB Jerod Mayo has notched two sacks and 19 tackles total, while LB Dont’a Hightower, who also has two sacks, has posted nine tackles. Overall, this is a tough defense that can shut down opponents.

 

Brady and company simply have too many weapons for Oakland on offense to keep pace and on defense to overcome. Throw in the strong home field advantage and the Patriots offense just might feed off of the fans in breakout fashion. The Raiders are ranked a dismal 31st in total yards and rushing yards while also ranking 23rd in passing and just 29th in scoring (14.0 ppg). Two TD's seems like a walk in the park, so we'll just sugarcoat the inevitable and give the Pats a distinct advantage in their home opener at Gillette Stadium.

[jimmythegreek]

Also playing Washington/Philadelphia over 52

 

Best of luck to all in week 3!

 

YTD 6-2 .750

[wrigley]

Thanks Jimmy 6-2 thats $$$$

[jeffksu]

Good luck JtG..