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Newsletter tracking (through 9/21/15)

CKO 11* (0-3)
CKO 10* (6-3-1)
CKO totals (5-2)

Marc Lawrence NCAA
5* (3-0)
4* (2-1)
3* (2-1)
Upset GOW (2-1)
Betcha Didn't Know (4-0)
Awesome Angle (3-1)
Incredible Stat (0-3)

Marc Lawrence NFL
5* (2-0)
4* (1-1)
3* (1-1)

Pointwise NCAA
1* (2-4) 
2* (1-2)
3* (1-2)
4* (3-3)
5* (3-3)

Pointwise NFL
3* (0-2)
4* (2-1-1)
5* (3-1)

PowerSweep NCAA
4* (1-2)
3* (1-5)
2* (4-3)
Underdog P.O.W. (2-1)
Technical P.O.W. (2-1)
Revenge P.O.W. (0-3)
Situational P.O.W. (2-1)

PowerSweep NFL
4* (1-1)
3* (1-1)
2* (1-1)
NFL System Play (1-1)

Sports Reporter
NCAA Best Bets (2-6)
NFL Best Bets (4-0)

Nelly's Green Sheet ***too bad we didn't get this one this week
NCAA (7-7, including 1-1 on 5* plays)
NFL (5-0)

PowerPlays
NCAA 4.5* (8-2)
NFL 4* (1-1)
NFL 3.5* (1-1) 

Winning Points (this past week is the first time we've gotten it this season)
NCAA Best Bets (1-1)
NFL Best Bets (2-0)

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Playbook 5* Best Bet

Denver over DETROIT by 13

The Gary Kubiak transition is paying off in spades for the Broncos
this season. They not only bring a spotless 2-0 record into tonight’s
contest, they also sport the 2nd ranked defense in the league. In
addition, Denver is an impressive 6-1 SUATS in games after playing
on Thursday, including 5-0 SUATS when taking on an opponent off a
SU loss. For all that, the Lions – who are allowing 104 YPG more than
they are gaining this season – have gone just 1-5 ATS of late against
opposition off a SU underdog win in its last game. Digging deeper,
our learned database informs us that Sunday night home dogs in the
NFL are 7-16 ATS when facing an undefeated opponent, including
3-11 ATS in games in which the home dog sports a losing record. And
if that’s not enough, Marc’s weekly column in this week’s USA TODAY
SPORTS WEEKLY points to The Clincher: Since 2000, teams with
new head coaches in the NFL are 16-3-1 ATS in Game Three off
back-to-back wins in their previous two games.

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Nelly's


COLLEGE KEY SELECTIONS
**********************************************************************
RATING 5 SAN JOSE STATE (-3½) over Fresno State
RATING 4 MASSACHUSETTS (+27½) over Notre Dame
RATING 3 APPALACHIAN STATE (-7½) over Old Dominion
RATING 2 BOWLING GREEN (PK) over Purdue
RATING 2 ARKANSAS STATE (+8) over Toledo
RATING 1 ILLINOIS (-6½) over Middle Tennessee State
RATING 1 NORTH TEXAS (+25½) over Iowa

NFL KEY SELECTIONS
**********************************************************************
RATING 5 CAROLINA (-3) over New Orleans
RATING 4 BUFFALO (+3) over Miami
RATING 3 PITTSBURGH (-1) over St. Louis
RATING 2 BALTIMORE (-2½) over Cincinnati
RATING 1 SAN FRANCISCO (+6) over Arizona

‘OVER’/’UNDER’s OF THE WEEK
NCAA: ‘OVER’ Florida International at Louisiana Tech
These teams combined to score only 30 points in the last meeting in 2013 but both
offenses have made great strides in that time. In four Conference USA home games
last season the Bulldogs posted over 54 points per game. FIU’s low scoring opener
could keep the totals in check for a few more weeks.
NCAA: ‘UNDER’ Middle Tennessee State at Illinois
With the Blue Raiders posting 73 points on their own last week and Illinois allowing 48
points this total might be bumped higher than it should be. MTSU only won once on
the road last season and Illinois held two of Conference USA’s best offensive teams
below their season averages last season.
NFL: ‘OVER 44’ Atlanta at Dallas
Tony Romo being out puts a big dent in this total as the last two Cowboys games have
been priced in the 50s. Atlanta is 2-0 but the defense has not shown huge signs of
improvement considering what the two offenses that the Falcons have faced did in
their other games. In 20 of the last 25 at home Dallas has allowed at least 20 points.
NFL: ‘UNDER 44½’ Buffalo at Miami
This series has been very low scoring in Miami in recent years and the Dolphins now
have just 37 points through two weeks. The Buffalo defense that has very high
expectations this season should bounce back and most of the points for the Bills came
late in the game. Neither team has hit 30 in the last three years in this series.
SYSTEM OF THE WEEK
NCAA: Downgraded to Dog
PLAY ON: Any NCAA underdog that lost S/U in the
previous game and has failed ATS in back-to-back games
as a home favorite in both instances.
60-38, 61.2% since 1994
PLAY ON: Arkansas
Tighten It: If the team is dogged by fewer than 10 points
36-20, 64.3% since 1994 – Fits: Arkansas
NFL: Disrespected Perfect Start
PLAY ON: Any 2-0 NFL home underdog in Game 3.
12-5, 70.6% since 1984
PLAY ON: Dallas Cowboys (Jets could also apply w/ win Monday)
Tighten It: If the team’s last win came as an underdog.
8-3, 72.7% since 1984 – Fits: Dallas Cowboys (Jets could also apply)
ANNUAL PSP SELECTIONS
REVENGE SPOT: Cincinnati over Memphis - QB injury?
ROAD TRIP: Northwestern over Ball State - still lean to Northwestern
HISTORICALLY SPEAKING: Wake Forest over Indiana - QB injury?
LOOK-AHEAD: Texas Tech over TCU - prefer to pass
LETDOWN: Central Florida over South Carolina - still lean to UCF
WEEKLY OVERREACTION
PLAY ON MINNESOTA: The Gophers barely beat Kent State last week with a
10-7 result but it was a flat effort coming off big games the first two weeks. Ohio is a good
team but they don’t rate two touchdowns superior to Kent as this week’s line suggests.
MISLEADING FINAL OF THE WEEK
PLAY ON TEXAS SAN ANTONIO: The Roadrunners lost by 55 last week but
they were out-gained by fewer than 200 yards as seven turnovers played a big role. UTSA
played right with Arizona and Kansas State in the first two weeks before running out of gas.
TRENDS OF THE WEEK
NCAA: Florida is 16-7-1 vs. Tennessee since 1991

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