JIMMY THE GREEK SAYS

[jimmythegreek]

(17) USC -16.5 over Washington (bought half):
Washington (2-2 0-1) will be visiting familiar territory this evening as they take on 17th ranked USC (3-1 1-1) this evening setting up a reunion with former Huskies coach Steve Sarkisan at the LA Memorial Coliseum. Sarkisian was Washington's coach from 2009-13 before returning to Los Angeles, where he was an assistant for the Trojans before landing the head job with the Huskies. After a convincing 42-14 win at Arizona St followed by the bye week, it's early enough that if USC can win out could be given another chance to play on NYE. At the very worst they would still no doubt capture a high bowl ranking if they fail to make the final four playoffs. The Trojans raced out to a 35-0 halftime lead against the Sun Devils and never looked back behind the arm of Cody Kessler who completed 19/33 for 375 yards and 5 TD with just 1 INT. JuJu Shuster was the biggest beneficiary catching 5 passes for 103 yards and 2 TD. Chris Hawkins returned a 94 yard fumble to paydirt and the USC defense forced 5 turnovers in all including 4 ASU fumbles. Meanwhile the Huskies are also coming off a bye but 2 weeks ago were edged by #23 California 30-24 in Seattle. Jared Goff completed 24/30 for 342 yards with 2 TD and 1 INT. Kenny Lawler (7-112) and Bryce Treggs (8-73) each caught TD passes from Goff, and Matt Anderson converted all 3 of his field goal attempts. The Cal defense forced 6 turnovers in all and held Washington to just 259 yards of total offense. Jake Browning was limited to just 17/28 for 152 yards passing and 2 INT.

Kessler (89/122 1297 15 TD 1 INT) continues to be held in the Heisman discussion by putting up some really impressive numbers that might sit just fine with NFL scouts. Smith Schuster (27-537 6 TD) has been Kessler's top target and has a bright future ahead in just his sophomore season., Steven Mitchell Jr (4-66 1 TD) had by far his best game of the season against the Sun Devils and is Kessler's second option when Schuster is put into double coverage. USC only runs the ball about 30% of the time, but when they do have a refreshing duo of Ronald Jones II (30-241 8.1 2 TD) and Tre Madden (37-213 5.8 4 TD) that coupled with a methodical but quick offense can gain yardage in bunches while pounding opponents front seven into the ground leaning on convincing leads late. The defense will also get a much needed boost when Kevon Seymour returns in order to add veteran leadership to the secondary. Veteran linemen such as Delvon Simmons, Antwaun Woods, and Claude Pelon upped their game as well after being exposed by Ben Hogan in the 10 point loss to Stanford last month. 

Browning (76/117 996 5 TD 4 INT) had a game similar to the opener against Boise, but the Huskies defense kept them in losing by just a field goal and were against the likes of Ryan Finley, not Brett Rypien. Top target Dwayne Washington (17-223 2 TD) was limited to just 3 catches for 19 yards in the loss to Cal. Joshua Perkins (13-167) and Jaydon Mickens (13-121) have not found the end zone yet and only 3 other receivers have caught TD passes. Myles Gaskin (39-209 5.4 3 TD) is the primary back but was just limited to 16 yards against the Golden Bears. Overall UW is just 97th in the country in total offense including averaging only 108 yards on the ground. USC has had some difficulty stopping PAC-12 rushing attacks this season, conceding nearly 200 yards on the ground to every opponent except for Idaho. The Huskies may look to exploit that weakness in order to ease the pressure on Browning. Kessler will need to be wary of cornerback Kevin King who has three interceptions this season and budding star Sidney Jones who is coming into his own as a sophomore.

If the Trojans can get off to a quick start and use Kessler to expose UW in the open field, the Huskies are in trouble especially if they fall behind early. While they are efficient on offense, they don't pose the same urgency when it comes to tempo and athleticism. Browning has pretty good accuracy and arm strength, but is not capable of putting up similar numbers especially if this becomes a toe to toe shoot out. USC learned their lesson a couple of weeks back taking Stanford's Hogan and company lightly, so look for a more complete effort similar to that against ASU last week en route to a convincing victory at home. 

I'll have a second play on Saturday.

[vegaseagles]

thanks jimmy

[The X]

Like it. GL Jimmy.

[jimmythegreek]

(5) Baylor -44 over Kansas:
So while results continue to become harder to swallow on a weekend by weekend basis with sincere apologies, glaring in the distance is a blowout line featuring Baylor (4-0 1-0) taking on Kansas (0-4 0-1) from Memorial Stadium in Lawrence. If you thought this Baylor offense was scary with Bryce Petty leading the way, you might be sadly mistaken when it comes to Seth Russell and a balanced running attack in the spotlight. Russell completed 15/23 for 286 yards and 4 TD with one INT while running for 2 more scores in a 63-35 terrorizing of Texas Tech last week. Shock Linwood ran for a career high 221 yards on 20 carries (11.1) and 2 TD, including a 79 yard scamper to open the scoring well within the opening minute. The junior gained the fourth-most rushing yards in school history. His previous high was 187 against these same Red Raiders in 2013. Russell tallied 81 yards on 12 keepers (6.8) himself and Zack Austin caught 8 passes for 110 yards and a 55 yard TD reception. The Bears defense forced 5 turnovers despite barely outgaining the Red Raiders 680-636. Patrick Mahomes completed 32/50 for 415 yards with 3 TD and 2 INT, but Texas Tech was on the short end of a ground game resulting in just 106 net rushing yards to Baylor's 368. Meanwhile Kansas remained winless this season by coming off a 38-13 loss at Iowa St. Mike Warren torched a weak front seven by gaining 175 yards on 18 carries (9.7) with 2 TD. Sam Richardson passed for 269 yards on 27/37 with 2 TD and 2 INT, with one of those picks returned 83 yards to paydirt by Marcquis Roberts. The Jayhawks were held to just 288 yards and one offensive TD throughout.

Russell (65/103 1281 19 TD 5 INT) leads the nation's top ranked Baylor offense with his team averaging nearly 64 points per contest, so it's no wonder that he's clearly in the Heisman discussion. Some decision making at times is ill-advised by the junior, but fortunately none of his picks have come with the final result in doubt. Led by top target Corey Coleman (24-570 11 TD) , who caught 7 passes for 110 yards and 3 scores last week, Baylor uses a quick mix of no huddle rush up to the line and pound it down opposing defense's throats at a breakneck pace. Opposing secondaries might not want to blink when it comes to Jay Lee (17-375 4 TD) who is Russell's other favorite playmaker. Linwood (62-584 9.4 6 TD) is only 5'9", but has blistering speed out of the backfield that provides plenty of real estate to break for huge gains behind a stout offensive line. Johnny Jefferson (35-274 7.8 3 TD) is a versatile secondary upback and Russell (22-172 7.8 3 TD) makes good decisions out of the pocket not afraid to take a hit when calling his own number when scrambling. Baylor could easily see over 800 total yards in this game if they so choose. You might argue that Baylor has a joke of a schedule, but while Baylor's pass defense is relatively soft, the elixir for an overmatched undermanned Kansas team is to not try to score toe to toe with the Bears. 

Ryan Willis will make his first start for Kansas tomorrow, replacing Montell Cozart who suffered a shoulder sprain against Iowa St. Willis was 8 of 16 for 100 yards last week. The Jayhawks pass offense is not actually too bad but have only recorded 2 passing TD thus far. Tre' Parmalee (15-242 1 TD) caught Kansas' only offensive TD last week and finished with 5 catches for 81 yards. Keaun Kiner (70-341 4.9 5 TD) is virtually the one who carries the bulk for the Kansas ground game, which averages only 145 yards per contest. The Jayhawks can only hope to contain Russell and company by progressing methodically on their quest to move the ball successfully. They cannot afford to make mistakes with the only hope of staying close is to keep Baylor's explosive offense off the field. Kansas has 6 takeaways so far this season, but opened as a huge disappointment with a 41-38 loss to FCS South Dakota St. 

Barring injury or some divine intervention, Baylor can probably pick the score. The Bears will likely roll up close to 50 points before halftime, and before too long Art Briles will keep the scoreboard rolling until Kansas yells uncle. The Jayhawks have lost seven straight and 12 of 13 dating back to Charlie Weis' final season. There have been some bright spots, but Kansas' offense as a whole has not been good. The Jayhawks rank below average with 391.3 yards per game despite only having played one FBS team with a winning record. Most of the nation will safely be able to tune into the 3:30 EST games across the country which are mercifully more challenging on the schedule compared to the bludgeoning the poor Jayhawks are about to encounter. I just can't pass this one up. Best of luck however you play!

[vegaseagles]

usc  laid  down