Elko's NFL tips

[Elko]

Here’s my Turkey day present for ya cunts. I put them here away from the chitty crowd as I know the real cappers hang here and we'll get less bone-headed comments from the chitties talking about their dicks, and/or whatever other dumb shit happens to cross their pea-brains.

 

This mostly a wrap-up of of comments I've posted around TGF but compiled in one place with a few added observations to fill in some holes.  I'd appreciate any comments and would love it if you've got some decent contributions to actually help out folks trying to handicap the NFL, i.e. no dumb-assed chitty shit.

 

​Let see how long we can keep a serious dialog going before some chitty rears up and makes a dumb-assed comment.

 

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The ever-changing nature of NFL rules and coach/team "fads" make it the NFL the hardest sport on the planet to handicap, especially sides.

 

A misconception is the NFL has gotten harder to beat.  I doubt that as the Mean Squared Error of the sides line vs actual game differences has not changed that much in 25 years.  Actually, it has gone up a bit perhaps.  The NFL is hard to beat but not impossible.

 

The items listed below should help you better the odds.

 

The NFL Season:

 

The NFL changes from week to week like no other sport. I contend there are at least 6 different periods and each requires a differing mind-set:

 

- week 1

- weeks 2 thru 5, usually the easiest period to 'cap, but sometimes "mis-season form" can come in as soon as week 3

- weeks 6 to American Thanksgiving week -1 (this is "mis"-season form, hardest period, IMO)

- ThanksG to wk 15 is relatively easier as a team's form is easier to see and the market is still scrambled by "mis"-season attitude.

- wk16-17  gotta watch out for teams who have really quit or have absolutely nothing to play for.

- playoffs. Relatively easy to ‘cap.  Trends (see below) works here as well.

 

Injuries:

 

Like many other sports, the market tends to overreact to injuries, especially to QBs, but tends to overlook injuries to other keys players such as:

 

- Centers, they handle the ball every play 

- Punters, injury to these guys can mean shortened punts, poorer placed punts.  

- Kickers, extra points are now a bit harder since kicks are from the 15 yd line, and FGs are always important.

- Defensive signal caller.  Who these guys are require research on your part, but typically the middle line backer.

 

QBs require the most analysis.  You should notice a change in the totals line whenever a QB is swapped (usually drops).  Your research should focus on whether the change really makes a difference and if an over play is valid.  A good management team can makeup for a change in QB, and with the market usually moving against the team with a changed QB, value can frequently be found.

 

Injuries to running backs and receivers are usually opportunities to bet with the team that has the injured player as market tends to overreact to these overrated players.

 

Trends:

 

Keep a log of 4 ATS categories over a season:

 

- Home Favs

- Home Dogs

- Away Favs

- Away Dogs

 

The market tends to shade toward overs and favorites.  That means value can be found in unders and dogs, home dogs especially.

 

A 4 week moving average of these trends can be very useful.  Be careful when betting against these trends, especially home teams.  Also a year-to-date log can be useful.

 

A 4 wk moving average of total yards/points for each team tells you the efficient teams, and can show opportunities.

 

Weather:

 

Rain tends to help the home team and tends to help the over as the market thinks rain creates sloppy play and depresses scoring.  However, it is sometimes very hard to predict rain during a game.

 

High winds tends to help the home team as they typically know the stadium wind patterns.  Very high winds tend to screw up both teams and helps unders.

 

Forecast snow is usually an over play and the market tends to remember the “white-out” snow games of poor scoring.

 

High humidity and high temps is usually an aid to southern teams as they are used to it.  However, if the temps are too high, it tends to wash out both teams and lessen differences.

 

Cold games are tough on warm teams, especially if they haven’t played in a cold game for a while.  Market seems to know this one though, so it is not that automatic.

 

Grade your plays:

 

Forensic examination of past plays are important to see if your selection/modeling is on track.  BTW, absolutely critical in NFL where chaotic plays (TOs/blocked kicks/missed Field Goals) cover about 30-40% of scoring variance.

 

Grade every one of you selection results into 5 categories:

 

- loss, variance in game caused loss

= loss, variance not an issue

- unclear, could have gone either way, which usually captures those close games.

= win, variance not an issue

- win, variance helped win

 

Two categories marked “=” are the key.  Win category must be larger than loss box to show an advantage.  The win ratio here is key.  If you are not +win% here, back down on amounts bet.

 

How good can you be?:

 

The NFL is the world’s hardest market to beat.  Nobody beats the NFL consistently year-in, year-out 60%+ of the time  especially in sides and usually in totals.  World class cappers can get to 57-58% but rarely higher.  With good selection you can get to 53-55%.

 

So, if you are considering buying picks from someone who says they can beat the NFL 60% of the time or higher, they are flat out lying to you.  If they really can achieve such figures, why sell them when they can take the market to the cleaners?

 

Given the fact that you probably won’t get much better than 55% with excellent methods, you need to line shop.  Make sure you have at least 3 outs and always compare lines.  Betting unders, and dogs, usually you can wait until later in the week.  If you like the fav or over, try to bet early.  Never bet against steam.  A steaming play means someone smarter than you knows something and in the long term you’ll lose.

[Big Bear]

good stuff.

[Sharp Square]

Well done !