NFL GREEK INSIDER WEEK 6

[jimmythegreek]

San Diego -7 over Oakland:

AFC West leading San Diego (4-1) is looking to extend on it's longest winning streak since 2009 despite overcoming injuries and using a team effort to fill voids namely at RB at C respectively. Philip Rivers and company travel north to take on Oakland (0-4) who is still looking for their first win making their debut under interim head coach Tony Sparano. Though the offense has been short-handed, San Diego has outscored opponents 116-45 during the winning streak. They rank sixth with 29.0 points and ninth with 389.0 yards per game since Week 2.

 

Philip Rivers (116/1651443 12 TD 2 INT) is off to one of the best starts of his career and last week tore up a Jets secondary completing 71% of his passes for 288 yards and 3 TD with just 1 INT in a 31-0 blanking of gang green. Rivers found at least 5 receivers with at least 3 catches and got plenty of protection from his offensive line along with 114 yards on 19 carries from Brandon Oliver (6.0) plus a score. Rivers has looked completely calm under center achieving his 4th straight start with a passer rating of 125 or better. Oliver came up big on a day when the Chargers lost yet another running back. Donald Brown (59-126 2.1) was knocked out of the game with a concussion in the first half. The Chargers already have lost Danny Woodhead for the season with a broken lower right leg and Ryan Mathews indefinitely with a sprained right knee. Eddie Royal (20-276 4 TD) and Antonio Gates (21-275 5 TD) remain Rivers' top 2 targets accounting for 75% of the scoring in the receiving core.

 

With Oakland coming off a bye, they were completely dominated in London a couple of weeks back losing to Miami 38-14. Rookie Derek Carr (84/133 734 4 TD 4 INT) sprained his MCL but used the bye week in good timing and looks to be ready to go working hard to rehabilitate from his injury. Sparano has made it clear on several occasions that Carr must step up his game if the Raiders expect to get off the schneid. That would make one wonder if he reserves to make a switch to Matt McGloin in games they are playing well enough to compete and perhaps win.One achilles heel thus far for Oakland has been he lack of a ground game, as Darrin McFadden (45-135 3.4 1 TD) ha accounted for the only score. James Jones (21-272 2 TD) and Andre Holmes (11-148 1 TD) are Carr's top targets, but truth be told have more balance than advertised in the receiving core with Mychal Rivera (12-83) and using McFadden in the flat. Oakland has yet to score more than 14 points in a game this season, something Sparano will try to turn around in his second stint as an NFL head coach. He previously guided the Miami Dolphins to a record of 29-32 in nearly four full seasons. He took over in 2008 after the Dolphins were 1-15 in 2007 and led Miami to a mark of 11-5 with a surprising AFC East title.

 

San Diego's defense comes in ranked third with just 290.8 yards allowed per game and is yielding a league-low 12.6 points per game. The club has not allowed a second-half point in the past two games and has not allowed a point in the fourth quarter since Week 1. The Raiders struggling offense sits dead last in scoring (12.8 PPG) as well as in total yards and rushing offense. Oakland is racking up just 61.5 yards per game on the ground, putting even more pressure on Carr. While Oakland ranks fourth in the NFL in pass defense at 207.0 yards allowed per game -- getting three takeaways that included an interception by cornerback T.J. Carrie -- the unit is yielding nearly 160 yards per game on the ground and has also come up with just four sacks from four different players.

 

Oakland will come into this contest more motivated in week 6 rather than over its first 4 games under the recently fired Dennis Allen. However against San Diego's well oiled unit, it's going to take balance on both sides of the ball than just sheer motivation in order to salvage their first win. The Chargers passing game behind Rivers is uniquely balanced and with the versatility of Oliver should coast to their 5th straight victory staying atop the AFC West.

[jimmythegreek]

Baltimore -3 over Tampa Bay (bought half):

Last week the Ravens (3-2) ran into some problems moving the ball at a consistent clip losing a toughly fought 20-13 battle at Indianapolis. Baltimore generated just 287 total yards and amassed just 15 attempts on the ground despite averaging about 6 yards per carry. Tampa Bay (1-4) seemed to be in position to pull off their second consecutive upset before New Orleans stormed back to win 37-31 in OT. Khiry Robinson scored on an 18 yard scamper with 9:30 remaining in the extra session erasing an 11 point deficit over the final quarter and a half.

 

Joe Flacco (119/191 1290 7 TD 3 INT) struggled a bit in week 5 completing 22/38 for 235 yards and an INT. Flacco was picked off by Vontae Davis in the third quarter, which resulted in an Indianapolis touchdown. The Colts also sacked him 5 times, held him out of the end zone and forced a passer rating on defense of just 65. Steve Smith (30-463 3 TD) caught 5 passes for just 34 yards following a season best 7 catches for 140 yards and 2 scores against Carolina. Owen Daniels (19-183 2 TD) is Flacco's second target and has plenty of size to turn receptions into big gains as evident of his 70 yards on 5 catches against the Colts. Justin Forsett (50-297 5.90 is one of the more versatile backs and receivers on the club especially since the release of Ray Rice. The 7 year vet is second on the Ravens with 23 catches for 118 yards and makes for a targeted screen slot receiver in the flat. Lorenzo Taliaferro (38-167 4.4 2 TD) could also be a key in assisting sustaining long drives primarily being the 3rd down back and focused on in the red zone.

 

Looks like Lovie Smith is going back to Mike Glennon (57/98 672 5 TD) 2 INT) as the starter after filling in over the last two games for Josh McGown (43/68 410 2 TD 4 INT) who remains sidelined with a thumb injury. Vincent Jackson (21-278 2 TD) has started all 5 games thus far despite playing through a rib injury. Mike Evans (17-203 1 TD) will also return after sitting out week 5 with a groin pull. Bobby Rainey (47-220 4.7 1 TD) is the featured back who shows his versatility (16-139 1 TD) in the receiving core as well as in the running game evident of his 9 yard TD run against the Saints. Doug Martin (37-95 2.5 1 TD) however looks to be more of a desperation situation due to not being on the same page with the coaching staff limiting his production.

 

This is a big game for the Ravens, who need to prove they can win on the road. Baltimore, particularly its defense, was impressive in defeat last week, keeping the Colts offense in check. The Ravens shouldn't be concerned about a lack of intensity in an out-of-conference game, based on the fact that they are coming off a loss. The Bucs, meanwhile, inspire little faith at home and are dealing with some significant injuries. The Ravens have the better QB, the better D, and intangibles on defense as well as special teams.

 

The Ravens started their year in controversy with the whole Ray Rice suspension and it continued until they were force to drop the running back. Now the team has finally gotten the chance to just play football. After a 42 point slaughtering against Atlanta several weeks back, one wonders which Bucs team will show up after pulling off an improbable upset in Pittsburgh and nearly following it up in New Orleans again last week.

[jimmythegreek]

Denver -9 over NYJ (bought half):

Peyton Manning continues to shatter all-time passing records on the road to a future Hall of Fame inductee, and while the road to another AFC West title could figure a little more challenging, there should be little doubt the 3-1 Broncos will have difficulty etting by in week 6. With a game at hand after already exercising their bye, last season's Super Bowl runners up travel across the nation taking on the NY Jets (1-4). Gang green's season has taken a disastrous turn for the worst since the off the field antics of Geno Smith have put head coach Rex Ryan's job in jeopardy.

 

Manning (105/158 1293 12 TD 3 INT) cracked the 500 TD passing milestone last week in a 41-20 ambush of Arizona. He finished 31/47 for 476 yards with 4 TD and an uncharacteristic 2 INTs. The 38 year old 17 year veteran has put the onus of responsibility on Ronnie Hillman to step up his game. With Montee Ball (55-172 3.1 1 TD) out on Sunday due to a groin injury, Hillman (17-66 3.9) will serve as the featured back with CJ Anderson (11-55 5.0) to get some reps as well. Manning continues to spread completions all over the field in piece-meal style to Emmanuel Sanders (32-435) who despite not finding the end zone as of yet caught 7 passes for 101 yards against the Cardinals. Demaryius Thomas (21-367 3 TD) set a franchise record with 226 receiving yards last week, silencing his critics and fantasy owners in dominating fashion. Let's not forget about Julius Thomas (20-226 7 TD) who leads the club in receiving TDs, but was fined about $8,300 for an illegal chop block against Calais Campbell that caused a grade 2 MCL sprain.

 

Geno Smith (86/148 949 4 TD 6 INT) gets the call once again despite receiving he second half hook in favorite of Michael Vick in week 5 who didn't fare anywhere better. Smith could get nothing going on offense for the Jets, completing just 4/12 for 27 yards and an INT as the Jets managed just 180 yards of total offense. Jeremy Kerley (19 168 1 TD) has been one of the few bright spots considering Eric Decker (14-204 2 TD) has put up adequate numbers in the Jets dire situation. Chris Ivory (59-318 5.4 2 TD) has been methodically successful when he's called on, but the Jets have become one dimensional falling behind which adds reluctancy to Smith's will to make plays in games on the verge of blowout on the short side.

 

The Jets have a weak secondary, so Manning and Co. need to attack it all day long. On the other side of the ball, the Broncos need to pressure Smith and force him into some mistakes. Smith is playing with little confidence right now, so making him even more uncomfortable than he is qualifies as a must. Manning could effectively establish the run as the Jets front seven and corners don't have the speed nor stamina to contain the Broncos from moving the chains on quick engineered successful drives. The Jets only hope to keep Denver's offense off the field is for Smith to not make mistakes while efficiently running the ball and playing a faster game. The likes of Aqib Talib, T.J. Ward and DeMarcus Ware has helped Denver flourish especially building on one of their more complete performances against Arizona last week. Danny Trevathan has been sidelined all year with a tibia fracture that he suffered back in August. He was Denver's leading tackler (129 combined stops) and one of the league's better 4-3 linebackers a season ago. Trevathan's ability to hold his own in pass coverage may also allow Del Rio to utilize more linebacker coverage against tight ends and running backs.

 

While you could name your score here, this could be another situation where the discrepancy of talent on the field could be so expanded, that Ryan could once again give Smith the hook in favor of Vick. However, while he continues to show confidence int he second year starter, don't be surprised if he changes his tune going forward with any hopes of making the postseason a virtual impossibility.

[jimmythegreek]

Jacksonville/Tennessee over 42.5:

After witnessing one of the more disappointing losses in franchise history, Tennessee (1-4) is out to move forward with hopes of returning to the win column against winless Jacksonville (0-5), who have blown a couple of convincing first half leads themselves thus far. The Titans led by 25 points late in the second quarter last Sunday before Cleveland scored 26 unanswered to win 29-28. The Titans' stunning collapse was a franchise record -and also the largest blown lead by a home team in NFL history.

 

The Titans rank 29th in scoring (17.6 points per game), 23rd in total defense (374.2 yards per game) and have been among the league's most undisciplined teams with 55 penalties. Ken Wisenhunt has all but confirmed that Charlie Whitehurst (25/44 371 3 TD 1 INT) will start for the injured Jake Locker (65/112 764 4 TD 4 INT) who suffered a thumb injury last week. Tennessee has an efficient one two punch in the receiving core led by Delanie Walker (26-364 3 TD) and Kendall Wright (25-223 3 TD). Although Walker caught just 4 passes for 47 yards last week he should see more significant time in the huddle while more involved in the passing game. Wright scored 2 TDs and finished with 6 catches for 47 yards against the Browns. Shonn Greene (44-190 4.3 1 TD) leads a balanced ground game although he is listed as doubtful for week 6 against the Jags. That means Bishop Sankey (32-150 4.7 1 TD) will be the featured back against a Jaguars rushing defense that allows almost 128 yards per contest.

 

Blake Bortles (65/97 668 3 TD 6 INT) seems to start off promising only to be victimized by a lack of experience and a letdown by the defense as the outcome wears on. Also not helping the situation is an inefficient running game that has registered just 1 rushing TD by Toby Gerhart (48-123 2.6 1 TD) all season. Denard Robinson (23-72 3.1) has big play ability even in short slots and in the return game, but Bortles success in the passing game is key in how efficient the offense can succeed. Allen Hurns (16-280 3 TD) and Allen Robinson (22-243) are Bortles' top targets, but the Jaguars also have their share of injuries including Marqise Lee and Cecil Shorts both suffering from hamstring injuries.

 

Jacksonville could keep this game close considering Tennessee's lapses on defense which has indicated their record is a lot better than their 1-4 shows. Whitehurst for the Titans has been relatively efficient and can also make plays with his feet out of the pocket. I have this line capped at around 45-46, given the fact that Tennessee could just as much pull away with a signature TD if Jacksonville is trying to rally in the waining moments, or it goes toe to toe and either decided by a fg or the last team holding the ball.

Best of luck to all in week 6.

 

YTD 12-7-1 .625

[markinsac]

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