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Very Soft Prop at Bookmaker for Baseball Game


Timely Hitting
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At the risk of sounding like a Gyno clone, I bring this thread to the forum. Let's see if anyone here gambles actually and can move a $250 limited prop play.

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[TD][Ticket #: 187523516] STRAIGHT BET[/TD]

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[TD=class: cms_table_dateCell]10/16/2014 @ 05:05 PM[/TD]

[TD=class: cms_table_idCell]MU[/TD]

[TD=class: cms_table_pickCell][18182] NO +145

(YES vrs NO) (STL CARDINALS vrs SFO GIANTS: Will Matt Adams (STL) record a hit?) [/TD]

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Matt Adams has a career BA against lefties of .197 in 193 career AB's. He didn't hit lefties in the minors either.

 

Today he faces one of the more stout lefties in the game, Bumgarner, who is very difficult on fellow lefties (224 BA against). Not that this matters, but he has 3 previous AB's against Bumgarner and has 2 k's, zero hits.

 

Adams has been dangerous in the playoffs, meaning it wouldn't surprise me to see the Giants match-up lefty v lefty against him if he gets a late game AB and Bumgarner is out of the game. No should be the favorite in this wager, not the dog. +145 is a great number.

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Let me clarify:

 

He is a 190 hitter vs lefties this year, but when facing a stout lefty like Bumgarner I think it's safe to assume that average to be closer to 170. Bumgarner holds lefties to a BAA roughly 25 points lower than the league average.

 

Assuming Adams experiences the same amount of regression vs Bumgarner as other lefties do, a BAA of 170 isn't that far fetched. That puts the No at about 47.4% against assuming 4 AB's; three is a possibility, and more of a possibility than five AB's, but the impact isn't that significant. So "NO" should be a slight dog of +105 or so. Certainly not +145.

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Let me clarify:

 

He is a 190 hitter vs lefties this year, but when facing a stout lefty like Bumgarner I think it's safe to assume that average to be closer to 170. Bumgarner holds lefties to a BAA roughly 25 points lower than the league average.

 

Assuming Adams experiences the same amount of regression vs Bumgarner as other lefties do, a BAA of 170 isn't that far fetched. That puts the No at about 47.4% against assuming 4 AB's; three is a possibility, and more of a possibility than five AB's, but the impact isn't that significant. So "NO" should be a slight dog of +105 or so. Certainly not +145.

 

 

your math is off. you're assuming that a .170 batting average means he will get a hit 17% of his plate appearances (appears that you took .83 x .83 x .83 x .83 = .47). unless you really think he will average 4 at-bats, i think he will average around 4 plate appearances and maybe 3.7 at bats which makes your bet even better. under the assumption that he is going to hit .170 which i don't agree with.

 

so far in 8 postseason games, adams only has 27 official at bats (vs plate appearances, because of walks/sacrifices). but he still has hits in 5 games out of 8

 

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your math is off. you're assuming that a .170 batting average means he will get a hit 17% of his plate appearances (appears that you took .83 x .83 x .83 x .83 = .47). unless you really think he will average 4 at-bats, i think he will average around 4 plate appearances and maybe 3.7 at bats which makes your bet even better. under the assumption that he is going to hit .170 which i don't agree with.

 

so far in 8 postseason games, adams only has 27 official at bats (vs plate appearances, because of walks/sacrifices). but he still has hits in 5 games out of 8

 

Mike, the math is based solely on the fact that Adams is a dreadful hitter against lefties (190 this year in 183 AB's). Bumgarner, on average, holds lefties to a lower BAA than an average lefty starter by roughly 25 points. Putting Adams as worse than 190, when 190 is vs all lefties not just elite ones like Bumgarner, isn't too far fetched.

 

I understand that he is unlikely to average 4 AB's but accounting for walks in this situation is pointless as a walk has no impact on the yes angle of this wager (a walk is as good as an out, so I'm worried about AB's not plate appearances), I also understand the math I used for example was very basic but going much further into it simply confuses people. If I can show value at basic .81 (190 BA) assuming 4 AB's then there is value at the true number as you noted. That was the point. It could obviously be broken down much further.

 

BigDaddy try reading the entire thread before chiming in; sometimes when posting initially I exaggerate my point to get it across, but will always correct:

 

"So "NO" should be a slight dog of +105 or so. Certainly not +145."

 

Adam's postseason performance prior is irrelevant, his performance against lefties throughout his career is very relevant.

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your math is off. you're assuming that a .170 batting average means he will get a hit 17% of his plate appearances (appears that you took .83 x .83 x .83 x .83 = .47). unless you really think he will average 4 at-bats, i think he will average around 4 plate appearances and maybe 3.7 at bats which makes your bet even better. under the assumption that he is going to hit .170 which i don't agree with.

 

so far in 8 postseason games, adams only has 27 official at bats (vs plate appearances, because of walks/sacrifices). but he still has hits in 5 games out of 8

 

Using his BB rate against all pitchers, not just lefties, and assuming 4 plate appearances for the game the amount of AB's he would be expected to take would be 3.81 so your 3.7 was a solid estimate. At 3.81 AB's, the odds are even better than at the basic 190*4AB's.

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Using his basic walk rate, Adams can expect about 3.81 AB's in tonight's game.

 

.81 raised to the 3.81 power is roughly 45% which would be +122.

 

.83 raised to the 3.81 power is roughly 49.1% which would be a true line of +103.

 

That's Adams hitting 190 and 170.

 

The line was +145 so I the line actually maintained value all the way to Adams hitting 210 which is well over his career average vs lefties. +145 would be 40.7% and 40.7% would be .79 to the 3.81.

 

Good luck to whatever anyone chooses. I don't look for prop edges too often but this one stuck out to me and the further I break it down the better it looks IMO.

 

Bigdaddy, wasn't a shot at you by the way. Just pointing out what you might have missed.

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At least I have the dog and over I guess; had that prop for more though, double popped the max.... Sorry guys, not one to run from a losing wager so will take the heat here.

 

I stand by the math behind the wager, but sometimes it just doesn't work out. My bad, and sorry to anyone that tailed. I'm usually the first to chime in on a loser but Mike beat me today. That SOB ha.

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