Guest boatboatboat Posted October 19, 2014 Report Share Posted October 19, 2014 LAS VEGAS -- It's funny how one play can change your fortunes (or lack thereof). I'm referring, of course, to Geno Smith throwing that ill-advised pick-six this past Sunday to take the New York Jets from a spread-covering 7-point deficit to a 14-point non-covering 31-17 loss to Denver. I had already put an "L" next to my picks on Pittsburgh plus-1.5 against Cleveland and Tampa Bay plus-3 against Baltimore, but I was confident Carolina plus-7 would hold, as the Panthers were never trailing Cincinnati by more than the spread. I felt even better when Carolina took a 7-point lead in the third quarter. All I needed to salvage a 2-2 record in the early games was for New York to hold on, and then let the San Diego-Oakland game decide if I would win and get back to .500 overall. Well, we all saw what happened. I needed the Raiders just to keep from a disastrous day. Although the Jets' non-cover was a bad beat and those certainly stink, I believe, in the long run, the good and the bad even out (though it often doesn't feel that way). If you put yourself on the right side more often than not, you can overcome those setbacks and come out ahead. At least that's the goal. Let's see if we can turn things around this week, as we look at the Week 7 weekend card and see the public perception on each game, how the wiseguys are viewing the matchups and my take on each game (or at least my lean, for those playing in pools in which you pick every game). As always, I don't expect anyone to follow my picks blindly, so join us in the comments section to say which games you disagree with (or agree with), and maybe we can isolate the strongest plays on the board. Last week: 2-3 ATS | 2014 season record: 18-20 ATS (47.4 percent) Streak for the Cash: I'm no longer eligible to play ESPN.com's Streak for the Cash contest, but they've asked me to suggest some plays. This is different from picking games against the spread -- they mostly have you pick games straight up, and the games are closer to pick 'em -- but it's all about win percentages/odds, so I'll tackle those at the end of the column. Note: The listed spread for each game is from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as of Thursday night (Westgate is the new owner of the LVH Hotel, which was formerly known at the Hilton, but the SuperBook name lives on). The public consensus pick percentages are from ESPN PickCenter, also as of Thursday night. [h=3]Matchup: Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts[/h] Spread: Colts -3 (-120) Public consensus pick: 84 percent picked Colts Public perception: Indy has rebounded from its 0-2 start to win and cover four in a row, and the Andrew Luck bandwagon is filling up. Cincy bettors who laid the points against Carolina and lost when the game ended in a tie this past week are probably backing off on them this time. Wiseguys' view: There should be plenty of sharps on both sides of this one. Those who like the Colts were happy to lay the 3, while those preferring the Bengals are waiting for plus-3.5 (and those popped up Thursday night at the South Point and Boyd Gaming/Coast Casinos books in Vegas). Tuley's Take: I'm with those waiting for the hook. Indy is playing great, but Cincinnati is still one of the best all-around teams, and a tie against a solid Carolina team doesn't diminish that. The Bengals' offense has been productive even with A.J. Green out, as Mohamed Sanu (11 catches for 120 yards this past week and a touchdown in each of the past two games) has picked up the slack. In a shootout, I trust the Cincy D more to get a stop. The pick: Bengals. [h=3]Matchup: Tennessee Titans at Washington Redskins[/h] Spread: Redskins -5.5 Public consensus pick: 63 percent picked Redskins Public perception: The public support for Washington here is a little unusual because they've let down bettors the past two weeks in losing ATS on a late Seattle field goal and then a very late Arizona pick-six. However, Tennessee isn't much of a public team. Wiseguys' view: I haven't heard many people talking about this game. I wouldn't be surprised if it's the lowest handle game of the weekend. Tuley's Take: I don't have a strong opinion on this game. I'm listing Tennessee as my pool play just because I think the line shouldn't be this high (more like 4, according the NFL Vegas Rankings, but no big difference in this range) and to align myself against the majority of other pool players. The pick: Pass (pool play: Titans). [h=3]Matchup: Miami Dolphins at Chicago Bears[/h] Spread: Bears -3 (-120) Public consensus pick: 75 percent picked Bears Public perception: Like the Indy-Cincy game, this looks like another case in which the public is going to back the favorite (which is usually the case overall, as 11 of the 13 Sunday games have the public on the favorite) and push it off the key number of 3, to 3.5. That will probably level off the pick percentages. Wiseguys' view: Again, the sharps will take the best number on the side they like. Tuley's Take: Chicago hasn't protected its home turf this season, as they lost the opener to Buffalo and then lost as underdogs against Green Bay in Week 4. Of course, Miami's only "away" win was in London. The pick: Pass (pool play: Dolphins, especially if you get plus-3.5). [h=3]Matchup: Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars[/h] Spread: Browns -5.5 Public consensus pick: 76 percent picked Browns Public perception: Cleveland is 3-1-1 ATS, and the push was when they opened as road 'dogs at Tennessee in Week 5, and the majority of their backers cashed when they rallied to win 29-28. The Browns earned more supporters with the past week's 31-10 rout of Pittsburgh. Wiseguys' view: Jacksonville was thisclose to dropping to 0-6 ATS, until the Jaguars rallied late to cover as 4-point 'dogs in 16-14 loss at Tennessee the past week. Still, most sharps will be on the Jags and fading the late move on Cleveland. Tuley's Take: I've been on Jacksonville several times this year, and of course, when I passed last week, they covered. This line is inflated with the Browns exceeding expectations, so I'm counting on the Jaguars to keep it close and hopefully lose a close game (or perhaps get their first SU victory -- is that asking too much?). The pick: Jaguars. [h=3]Matchup: Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams[/h] Spread: Seahawks -7 (EVEN) Public consensus pick: 90 percent picked Seahawks Public perception: Don't look now, but if the proverbial playoffs started today, the Seahawks would be staying home (of course, at 3-2 they've played one fewer game than the 4-2 Packers and 49ers for the last wild-card spot, but it's still surprising). Regardless, the public is overwhelmingly on them this week, despite their being on the road. Wiseguys' view: Sharps usually like backing St. Louis coach Jeff Fisher as an underdog, but we'll see if they jump in this week after the Rams fell short as home 'dogs against San Francisco on Monday night. Seattle will be one of the sports books' biggest teaser liabilities this week. Tuley's Take: Early Monday night, with St. Louis up 14-0, I was kicking myself for passing on the 'dog, but I was relieved in the end. I have to pass here, too, as the Seahawks can do the same thing and pull away late. Seattle is also one of those teams that has bounced back well from losses, having gone 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS after their past six setbacks. The pick: Pass (pool play: Seahawks). [h=3]Matchup: Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers[/h] Spread: Packers -7 Public consensus pick: 55 percent picked Panthers Public perception: Here's the first game on the betting board for which the public sides with the underdog, though not by much. The pick percentages would certainly flip if the line goes to 6.5 and probably by a wider margin with Green Bay still much more of a public team. Wiseguys' view: The sharps who like Carolina as a 7-point road underdog for the second straight week are also snapping up the plus-7s, but there also will be plenty of wiseguys waiting to lay under a TD with the Pack at home (note: With Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay is 28-15-2 ATS as home chalk). Tuley's Take: Green Bay is indeed tough at home, but Carolina showed it could go into hostile territory and get a win (well, an ATS win and a SU tie), and they're now 9-2 ATS as road 'dogs since the start of 2012. The pick: Panthers. [h=3]Matchup: Atlanta Falcons at Baltimore Ravens[/h] Spread: Ravens -7 (EVEN) Public consensus pick: 63 percent picked Ravens Public perception: Baltimore's only SU loss the past five weeks was at Indy, so the public is starting to ride the Ravens. Atlanta has lost three straight since that 56-14 blowout of Tampa Bay. Wiseguys' view: The books with Falcons plus-7 flat (minus-110 for both sides) saw those snapped up by sharps on the 'dog. Books that have gone to 6.5 have seen both sharp and square Baltimore money at that number. Tuley's Take: ESPN Insider's NFL Vegas Rankings, which I'm part of on Tuesdays, have Atlanta as a value play at plus-7, and I concur. I'm projecting a shootout, and though I think the Falcons can keep this close and even win outright, the back door should be wide open if they trail late. The pick: Falcons. [h=3]Matchup: Minnesota Vikings at Buffalo Bills[/h] Spread: Bills -5.5 Public consensus pick: 74 percent picked Bills Public perception: Buffalo has its supporters, but the lopsided public action here is at least as much about people fading Minnesota, which has been dominated in losses to Green Bay and Detroit. Wiseguys' view: The Bills continue to get support from sharps, even after losing on them against New England the past week. Still, this might challenge Tennessee-Washington as the lowest handle of the weekend. Tuley's Take: I can't make a case for Minnesota, with the way the Vikings have played the past two weeks. I've been having people ask me for over/under plays, and here's a game in which I like the under, 42.5, as it looks like it could be similar to the Buffalo-Detroit game, in which the Bills ground out a win (Buffalo is 5-1 with the under, too). The pick: Pass (pool play: Bills). [h=3]Matchup: New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions[/h] Spread: Lions -2.5 (-120) Public consensus pick: 61 percent picked Saints Public perception: The public sure loves the Saints. New Orleans has been burning bettors so far this season, at 1-4 ATS, and they're 3-10 ATS in their past 13 road games, but their supporters haven't lost faith. Wiseguys' view: Plenty of sharps on both sides here. Those on Detroit have to love its top-ranked defense (only 270.7 yards allowed per game), which is allowing just 11 points a game the past four weeks. Tuley's Take: I'm on the other public 'dog (spoiler alert for the Monday night game below) and also with the public on Carolina, but I can't back the Saints away from home, especially as the Lions are at least as good as the Falcons, Browns and Cowboys -- all of whom have already beat the Saints away from the Superdome. The pick: Pass (pool play: Lions, especially laying the 2.5). [h=3][/h] [h=3]Matchup: Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers[/h] Spread: Chargers -4 Public consensus pick: 51 percent picked Chargers Public perception: Action is pretty split at PickCenter now, though other bet-tracking sites had much higher percentages on Kansas City at higher numbers, as this line opened at San Diego minus-5.5 at most books. Most people also remember K.C. coach Andy Reid is usually great after a bye week (13-5 ATS dating back to his days in Philly). Wiseguys' view: Sharps were on the Chiefs early, as well, to drive the number down. San Diego failed to cover for the first time the past week, in a win over Oakland, but the Chargers remain tied for tops in the league at 5-1 ATS, and minus-4 will look like a bargain for some. Tuley's Take: Even though I've been high on the Chargers all year, I was happy to fade them last week in a letdown spot, but I'm not about to do that this week, as they won't be looking past the Chiefs. The pick: Pass (pool play: Chargers). [h=3]Matchup: New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys[/h] Spread: Cowboys -6.5 Public consensus pick: 70 percent picked Cowboys Public perception: Dallas is America's Team again, after they went into Seattle and beat the defending champs. The G-Men let down a lot of bettors in their 27-0 loss at Philly this past Sunday night. Wiseguys' view: There's sure to be a lot of sharps who jump in on New York at plus-7 or higher. Despite the loss at Philly, Eli Manning & Co. are usually tough road warriors and are 19-10-2 ATS as divisional road 'dogs the past 10 years. Still, Dallas will be a huge teaser liability for the books. Tuley's Take: The advance line at the Westgate this past week was Dallas minus-3.5, and now it's approaching 7 (in fact, as of late Thursday night, the Golden Nugget in downtown Vegas and some offshore books had already hit 7). That's an over-adjustment in my book. The old adage is NFL teams aren't as good as they look in their best win or as bad as they look in their worst loss. The pick: Giants. [h=3]Matchup: Arizona Cardinals at Oakland Raiders[/h] Spread: Cardinals -3.5 Public consensus pick: 84 percent picked Cardinals Public perception: I guess the public wasn't enamored with Oakland's cover as a home 'dog against San Diego the past week, as they're betting against them here. However, Arizona has earned plenty of respect. The Cardinals' only non-covers this year were against Denver in Week 5 and in a Week 1 win over San Diego. Wiseguys' view: The Cards continue to make people into believers. It doesn't matter if it's Carson Palmer or Drew Stanton, the sharps are buying Arizona stock. But with the home 'dog getting the hook (plus-3.5), there is some support for the Raiders to repeat what they did last week. Tuley's Take: Again, I was glad I pulled the trigger on Oakland plus the points against San Diego last week, but they're not consistent enough to back every game (though maybe I should rethink, as they're 3-2 ATS despite an 0-5 SU record). The pick: Pass (pool play: Cardinals). [h=3]Matchup: San Francisco 49ers at Denver Broncos[/h] Spread: Broncos -6.5 Public consensus pick: 55 percent picked Broncos Public perception: These are two pretty public teams, especially with San Francisco rebounded from their slow start. This is another game for which we see the public on one team at one spread and on the other at another; Denver is the pick, at 6.5, while San Francisco is the choice, at 7. Wiseguys' view: Sharps are playing it the same way, with those on Denver laying the 6.5 and those on San Francisco grabbing the plus-7. Tuley's Take: The Broncos have covered the past two weeks, but the wins over the Cards and Jets weren't as dominant as the final scores indicated. I also like that San Francisco under Jim Harbaugh is 4-0 SU, and the past four times ATS, it has been an underdog of 4 or more points. I don't necessarily like the trend as much as that it shows he gets his team up against top competition. I obviously would prefer to get 7 points, but I like it enough to recommend at plus-6.5. The pick: 49ers. [h=3]Matchup: Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers (Monday/ESPN)[/h] Spread: Steelers -3.5 (EVEN) Public consensus pick: 73 percent picked Texans Public perception: The public is solidly on Houston, despite the Texans' being the road underdog on "Monday Night Football." Of course, Pittsburgh's 31-10 loss at Cleveland the past Sunday doesn't inspire much confidence in bettors. Wiseguys' view: With the hook at 3.5, Houston is a popular wiseguy play as well, and so it won't be surprising to see this drop to 3 at more books over the weekend. Tuley's Take: I was surprised this line was ever more than a field goal. With Pittsburgh's losses to not only Cleveland but also Tampa Bay, it doesn't make sense for them to be more than a field goal favorite against anyone, especially as Houston's losses to Indy and Dallas are more impressive than the Steelers' win over the Jaguars. I feel I'm getting the better team, plus the points (and the NFL Vegas Rankings agree). The pick: Texans. [h=3]Streak for the Cash[/h] When playing this contest, it doesn't make sense to pick a lot of underdogs, as you don't get any extra points for that. My suggested games will usually be favorites with which I haven't been able to make a strong case for the underdog. The organizers of this contest don't use games with huge spreads, so I usually suggest two favorites from the more competitively priced games: Best bet: San Diego Chargers over Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET) As stated above, San Diego is less likely to look past Kansas City, especially after last week's scare. The Chargers are still known as an offensive team, but the defense has been as much of a reason for the team's success and has allowed just 15.2 points per game. Beware of the 4:05 p.m. ET start time, as you might not be able to use it if playing a 1 p.m. ET game. Confidence meter: 66 percent on the Chargers to win straight up (based on the no-vig price of around minus-195). Second pick: Buffalo Bills over Minnesota Vikings (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET) This basically comes down to my believing the Bills' mediocre offense will have more success against Minnesota's decent defense than the Vikes' poor offense will be able to have against Buffalo's stop unit. (Note: As mentioned above, if you play this on the early game schedule Sunday, you might not be able to play the S.D.-K.C. game.) Confidence meter: 69 percent on the Bills to win straight up (based on the no-vig price of around minus-230). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bimmercando Posted October 20, 2014 Report Share Posted October 20, 2014 Ouch...not a good Sunday for Dave. He knows his ( underdog ) stuff which makes you realize that even with an arsenal of knowledge, you will not clean up week after week. So here's to hoping the factors which ruled ysdty carry over to tonight and Pittsburgh covers. Best of luck to Dave as he is worthy. Go Dog Go.....but not tonight !!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
milwaukee mike Posted October 20, 2014 Report Share Posted October 20, 2014 sitting at 1-5 right? and a straight up streak loss at -195 calling carolina solid and saying the bengals are one of the best teams in the nfl really hurts his credibility going forward Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bimmercando Posted October 21, 2014 Report Share Posted October 21, 2014 Next week beware Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brutus Buckeye Posted October 22, 2014 Report Share Posted October 22, 2014 Dave Tuley was good years ago. It's been a long time. It always amazes me how the worst sports handicappers end up getting ESPN deals and other media spotlights. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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