JIMMY THE GREEK SAYS

[jimmythegreek]

Georgia Southern -24 over Troy:

The Eagles of Georgia Southern (6-2 5-0) look to extend their 5 game winning streak out of the Sun Belt against Troy (1-7 1-3) at Paulson Stadium. The leading ground game in the country recorded 613 rushing yards in a 69-31 win over Georgia State. Matt Brieda ran for 201 yards on just 12 carries (16.8) and 4 TD including a 61-yarder with the outcome well in hand. QB Kevin Ellson added 115 yards on 15 carries (7.7) with a score, and Alfred Ramsby gained 92 more yards on 12 carries (7.7) and two trips to paydirt. In fact, Ellson threw just 6 passes, completing 5 for 47 yards as the Eagles broke open a 27-17 halftime advantage by outscoring the Panthers 42-14 in the second half. Meanwhile the Trojans dropped their second straight to South Alabama 27-13 last week. Kendall Houston ran for 178 yards on 18 carries (9.9) including a 41 yard scoring scamper while Xavier Johnson (15-107 7.1) added a 14 yard first half TD run. Brandon Silvers was just 9/18 for 62 yards and was replaced by Dontrell Pruitt (4/6 83 1 TD) who completed a TD pass to BJ Chitty late.

 

Troy’s rushing defense has been weak all season allowing 245 yards per game. That ranks 110th in the country, and plays right into Georgia Southern's hands who average 401 yards on the ground per contest. Breida (108-1032 9.6 12 TD) can pass Troy's entire team with a solid night. Ellson (112-770 6.9 8 TD) engineers a triple option attack that sets opposing front lines off balance vctimized by large chunks of yardage gained. In 2014 Troy is yielding an average of 39 points and 466 yards per game and have gone winless on the road since October 26th of last season. Georgia Southern has 32 rushing plays of 20 or more yards and has rushed for at least 335 yards in five straight games. Ellson (45/79 734 5 TD 2 INT) has been efficient when he's had to throw this season, obviously not much considering the Eagles run the ball nearly 85% of the time on average. Kentrellis Showers and BJ Johnson have combined for more than 500 receiving yards and 6 TD.

 

Head coach Larry Blakeney’s final season at Troy has been a tough one.Troy's offense has been less than respectable as they gained 310 yards last week against South Alabama while giving up 402. Brandon Silvers (123/183 1208 5 TD 3 INT) set a record low for passing efficiency against the Jaguars which led way to Brandon Pruitt (43/73 530 1 TD 1 INT) who provided somewhat more of a spark. Jordan Chunn (55-211 3.8 4 TD) was the Trojans best option on the ground against USA (8-53 6.6) while Brandon Burks (14-50 3.6) mostly mopped up on 3rd and short opportunities trying to keep drives sustained in an otherwise winnable game. Chunn leads Troy with 4 rushing TD, which is the same amount as Silvers. Silvers however fails to spread the field consistently to his receivers leads to incomplete drives primarily on 3rd down situations. Chandler Worthy (30-324 3 TD) and Bryan Holmes (22-270 1 TD) are his primary targets, however the duo was limited to just 6 catches and 61 yards in the loss to USA.

 

Troy is losing by an average of more than 20 points per game this season and they are just 15-29 since the start of the 2011 season. It’s clear that there’s simply a lack of talent on this Troy team. On the other hand, Willie Fritz for Georgia Southern is an early favorite for Coach of the Year. Fritz, who came over from Sam Houston State when Jeff Monken took the job at Army, has navigated the Eagles to a 6-2 record in their first season as a FBS member. To put the Eagles’ season into perspective, their two losses are a one-point loss to NC State and a three-point loss to Georgia Tech. They’ve scored 40 rushing touchdowns and have averaged 7.4 yards per carry. When they do throw, they’re picking up 16.6 yards per completion. Having such a productive running game has helped the defense. They have only allowed 22.3 points per game and should end up a lot better especially if this one gets out of hand early.

 

Troy can’t match the explosiveness of the Georgia Southern offense and there’s a decent chance that the team has quit on the season after finding out that their coach is bailing on them. Troy has really fallen on some difficult times and this evening could be the cou de gras. While it's no secret this has been one of my least successful seasons more picks will be coming this weekend and there's still about a month remaining to turn the tide at the very least.

[jimmythegreek]

Baylor -35 over Kansas:

After Baylor's dreams of an undefeated season were dashed 2 weeks ago with a loss to now #20 West Virginia, #13 Baylor (6-1) and head coach Art Briles used the bye week to his advantage with the Bears eager to get back to their winning ways. Despite their championship hopes all but an afterthought, has an opportunity to right the ship against Kansas (2-5), a team that has not won a BIg 12 game on the road since 2008. The Jayhawks also are coming off a bye week after losing 34-21 to Texas Tech

 

Baylor was hit with a conference record 18 penalties for 215 yards and managed just 318 of total offense in a 41-27 loss to the Mountaineers. The win gave WVA a national ranking as the Bears gained barely half of their 579 yards they generate per contest. The loss dropped Baylor 8 spots in the poll but with a full month left in the regular season the Bears now are among a crowd of one-loss teams, with No. 1 Mississippi State and No. 2 Florida State the only remaining unbeatens from power-five leagues.

 

Bryce Petty (117/214 1757 17 TD 3 INT) had a subpar performance completing just 16/36 for 223 yards and 2 TD while being sacked 4 times. In addition to the lack of protection, the running game was held to just 97 yards, a fraction of the 230 they average which ranks 22nd nationally. Shock Linwood (140-696 5.0 9 TD) was held to just 69 on 21 carries (3.3) against West Virginia but should have far more success against Kansas 77th ranked rushing defense allowing 180 yards per game. KD Cannon (31-661 6 TD) has started every game but was double teamed for the most part in Baylor's loss held to just one catch for 10 yards. However, with top target Antawn Goodley (9-132 1 TD) since returning after missing the opening month suffering an aggravated quad against SMU, Petty will be able to spread the field and endure success against the Jayhawks' secondary. Kansas allows 232 passing yards per contest and hold distinctive front seven and corner disadvantages in size and speed. Corey Coleman (26-405 5 TD) also caught a TD pass and Petty has the ability to make plays with his feet before not shy to take a hit scrambling for positive yardage and first downs.

 

Michael Cummings (49/88 594 2 TD 2 INT) has since taken over as the starter for Montell Cozart (62/125 693 5 TD 7 INT) last month after a 33-14 loss to West Virginia. However the Jayhawks have lost 4 straight conference games despite Cummings completing 20/32 for 235 yards and 2 TD with 1 INT against the Red Raiders. Kansas has a dual threat in the receiving core in Jimmy Mundaine (23-294 1 TD) and Nick Harwell (27-259 2 TD), however they have not gotten much from their ground game. Kansas needs to protect Cummings by utilizing the tandem of Corey Avery (96-417 4.3 3 TD) and De'Andre Mann (75-362 4.8) to help set up play action in shorter situations. Mann leads Kansas in ypc but has not found the end zone as Kansas has managed just 6 rushing TD compared to Baylor's 21. Kansas may be lucky to score in this game. It is only putting up 16.6 points and 336.3 yards per game on the season. It will have a hard time moving the football against a Baylor defense that is only allowing 23.0 points and 325.3 yards per game.

 

The Jayhawks caught Baylor at arguably the worst time possible, as Baylor is motivated to prove they belong in the College Football Playoff discussion once more. Bryce Petty was thoroughly outdueled by Clint Trickett, but Kansas cannot bring the same pressure and neither Michael Cummings nor Montell Cozart have any chance of keeping Kansas in the game for more than a couple of drives. While it may be 5 TDs to lay, Petty will lead an offense looking to take most of its frustration from several weeks back losing to the Mounties. Because Kansas is not what you call an efficient come from behind squad, we're not anticipating much in the way of a backdoor cover even if Briles eventually calls off the dogs. Best of luck however you play!

[jimmythegreek]

We're not overly excited but a week 10 sweep could be what was needed to turn a subpar season around. Back up in week 11.

 

YTD 5-6-1 .458