NFL GREEK INSIDER WEEK 9

[jimmythegreek]

Kansas City -9 over NYJ:

Kansas City (4-3) goes for its 3rd straight win playing host to Michael Vick and the NY Jets (1-7) who will look to avoid their 8th straight loss for the first time in nearly 18 years. Head coach Andy Reid gave Vick a second chance in the league during his days at Philadelphia, much to the chagrin of the 34 year old who will be making his first start of the season replacing Geno Smith. In week 8, Alex Smith completed 24/28 for 226 yards and Jamaal Charles ran for 73 yards on 13 carries (5.6) including 2 scores in a 34-7 slaughtering of St. Louis. Smith threw 3 first half interceptions leading to Vick not doing much better in relief as Buffalo jolted the NY Jets 43-23 at MetLIfe Stadium. The Bills defense forced 6 turnovers while Kyle Orton completed 10/17 passes for 238 yards and 4 TD to 4 different receivers.

 

Smith (144/215 1493 9 TD 4 INT) has been relatively efficient given the fact he sprained his shoulder in week 8. However it also helps when you are protected by a solid line and the 3rd ranked rushing attack in the league led of course by the combination of Knile Davis (99-401 4.1 3 TD) and Charles (78-357 4.6 4 TD). Davis relieved Charles as the primary back with the game well in hand, and gained 48 yards on 16 carries (3.0) also scoring a 3 yard TD. Smith has limited his mistakes and engineered the Chiefs back into playoff contention with a balance in the receiving core. Travis Kelce (28-352 3 TD) caught 5 passes for 45 yards against the Rams and is Smith's top target. Dwayne Bowe (25-343) caught 6 passes for 64 yards but has still not found the end zone all season not to mention a 100 yard game. Another benefit in the ground game is that Smith reads the field very well and can scramble while not shy taking a hit in the open field averaging 6 yards per rush. Davis and Charles have 8 of KC's 10 rushing TD's this season, however the Jets ground game defense could present a test yielding just 85 yards per game, 6th in the league.

 

Vick (26/56 200 1 INT) is looking to provide any kind of spark to a sputtering offense that is 28th overall in the league including 30th in the passing game. Although he engineered a couple of TD drives last week, he will have to heavily rely on the Jets' 4th ranked rushing attack behind Chris Ivory (101-475 4.5 5 TD) who was held to just 43 yards against Buffalo. Chris Johnson (67-268 4.0 1 TD) has taken a back seat to Ivory becoming the shorter option, and despite well beyond his years, Vick can still call his own number like Smith gaining about 7 yards per rush. Vick will have Eric Decker (31-363 3 TD) as his top target who most fans feel has underachieved since coming from Denver. Decker has been operating over the middle but was held to just 40 yards against the Bills despite catching 7 passes. Jace Amaro (32-285 1 TD) has been double teamed on numerous drives and faces a tight Chiefs secondary that has the league's top rated pass defense yielding only 196 yards through the air. That could mean more chances for Jeremy Kerley (24-226 1 TD) who returned to practice following an illness but has remained a virtual non-factor in the receiving game.

 

New York's offensive line struggled mightily last weekend against an elite Bills defensive line, and it will face another huge challenge with Kansas City's front. Justin Houston currently leads the league in sacks with 10, and Tamba Hali has four of his own, along with three forced fumbles. The two behemoths are almost impossible to contain, but Gang Green's pair of tackles must find a way to do so in order for Michael Vick to have any chance of success. The Jets’ front seven on defense will have to again protect the secondary even more so than usual as starting CB Darrin Walls is out on Sunday. Converted safety Antonio Allen is one starter while undrafted rookie free agent Marcus Williams or journeyman Josh Thomas as 2010 first-round draft pick Kyle Wilson is nothing more than a slot CB after so many attempts to have him outside over the years. The Jets need to minimize mistakes in the passing game by protecting Vick and not allowing Houston and Hali to fly around the outside and create pressure and turnovers. Easier said than done, and Charles even less than 100% is a workhorse in the backfield and as a slot receiver. The Chiefs will continue to pound the Jets front seven and as long as Smith is mistake free and efficient, gang green's offense just doesn't have enough to muster a competitive effort.

[jimmythegreek]

Cincinnati -10 over Jacksonville (bought half):

Week 8's win against Baltimore propelled the Bengals (4-2-1) to the top of the AFC North, Cincinnati's first victory since 9/21. Andy Dalton completed 21/28 for 276 yards and an INT, but scored on a game winning 1 yard sneak with :57 left putting the finishes on a 10 play 80 yard drive. Dalton would run for 2 scores on his own, and the Bengals would force 3 Ravens turnovers including 2 picks by Joe Flacco who was just 17/34 for 195 yards. Cincinnati welcomes Blake Bortles and the Jacksonville Jaguars (1-7) to Paul Brown Stadium. The Bengals could be in for a reprieve considering Jacksonville's turnover woes especially exposed in a 27-13 loss to Miami in week 8. The rookie out of UCF completed 18/34 for 221 yards and a TD, but had 2 picks returned to paydirt. Ryan Tannehill (16/29 196 1 TD 1 INT) didn't have to do much considering Miami's defense made plays on both sides of the ball when they counted.

 

Dalton (142/217 1641 6 TD 4 INT) has struggled since the Bengals won their first 3 games, going just 1-2-1 over his last 4. Top target Mohamed Sanu (35-533 3 TD) had 5 catches for 125 yards against the Ravens, and could endure even more success against the Jags 27th ranked passing defense allowing 268 yards per contest. Cincy got some even better news as AJ Green (17-314 2 TD) was upgraded to probable after missing the last month with a nagging toe injury. Jermaine Gresham (28-211) has seen his role improved as the secondary target catching 16 passes in his last 2 games. In the rushing game, Giovanni Bernard (109-446 4.1 5 TD) is listed as out for Sunday's matchup with a hip pointer. The drawback could result in the Bengals running more plays one dimensionally having to rely on Jeremy Hill (50-195 3.9 3 TD) as the primary back. Hill had just 25 yards on 10 carries (2.5) in the win over Baltimore.

 

Bortles (132/208 1384 6 TD 12 INT) like most rooks has shown flashes of development while simultaneously forcing passes into double coverage resulting in turnovers. Still, Jacksonville has a formidable receiving core led by Allen Robinson (39-453 2 TD) who caught 5 passes for 82 yards against the Dolphins including a 48 yard scoring pass. Allen Hurns (22-354 3 TD) has big play ability thanks to blazing speed in corner routes, and Clay Harbor (22-244 1 TD) also scored last week in a first half 2 minute drill. One area that has been a primary achillies heel for Jacksonville is the lack of running game. Ranked 26th in the league with just 97 rushing yards per contest, the bulk of the work falls on Denard Robinson (68-329 4.8 1 TD) who has posted back to back 100 yard games. Bortles (27-191 7.1) brings his ability to scramble out of the pocket from college, but it has been a struggle for Toby Gerhart (52-133 2.6 1 TD) who gained just 10 yards after returning last week with a foot injury. Jacksonville has dropped 25 of its last 30 road games over the last 4 years.

 

If it seems like the Bengals defense has developed an identity crisis, look no further than making the change to adding safety Josh Evans. The Bengals are clearly better in the secondary and they’re going to keep getting better once you get rookie CB Darqueze Dennard and the core making plays. Safety George Iloka has also covered opposing receivers well, and Reggie Nelson is a far better player than he was earlier in his career. The Jags also have a strong defensive front with tackles Sen’Derrick Marks, Roy Miller, Ryan Davis coming off the edge shutting down the ground game. That means Dalton needs to remain efficient and not second guess his patterns trusting his receivers to take advantage of the Jags awry pass defense.

 

Bortles will have to nearly play a perfect game, and with no protection from a limited running game may have trouble sustaining potential drives. Dalton will spread the defense which should provide chances for Green. The Bengals defense will force Bortles to become pass happy if Cincy draws an early lead. A good tuneup without having to look forward next week to an interstate battle with Cleveland in week 10 for Ohio bragging rights.

[jimmythegreek]

Cleveland -6 over Tampa Bay (bought half):

If it seems strange that Cleveland (4-3) is heading into November for the first time in 7 seasons, look no further than Brian Hoyer and a surprisingly effective defense as the culprits that have Browns fans thinking postseason. This afternoon Cleveland will be looking for their second straight win as they take on Tampa Bay (1-6) from First Energy Stadium. Although not exactly getting the job done in the cleanest of fashion, the Browns defeated the visiting Raiders 23-13 in week 8. Hoyer completed 19/28 for 275 yards and a TD to Andrew Hawkins who caught 7 passes for 88. Ben Tate was limited to 26 yards but scored a go ahead late TD to put the game out of reach. Billy Cundiff was successful on all 3 of his field goal attempts including a 52 yarder. Derek Carr passed for 328 yards and a score for Oakland, but Darren McFadden was held to just 59 on the ground and the Cleveland defense yielded only 2 field goals the rest of the way. Tampa Bay is looking to end a 3 game losing streak after falling to Minnesota 19-13 thanks to an Anthony Barr strip of a fumble to paydirt on the first scrimmage play of OT. The Vikings defense limited the Bucs running game to just 66 yards and Mike Glennon (19/28 171 1 TD 1 INT) could not get much of a rhythm going in TB's offense.

 

Hoyer (125/218 1714 8 TD 2 INT) has started all 7 games this season making the offseason draft acquisition of Johnny Manziel seem like an afterthought. Hawkins (36-470 1 TD) was viewed at best a # 3 slot receiver during the offseason behind Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron (13-250 1 TD). Gordon has since been suspended for 10 games after charged with speeding, while Cameron has been a disappointment while suffering a concussion that will keep him out of action. Miles Austin (23-285 2 TD) has picked up some of the slack being Hoyer's second option, but has endured strong starts only to emerge as a non factor late in games. One of the reasons Hoyer has remained efficient is the balance of the ground game led by Tate (84-305 3.6 3 TD). Isaiah Crowell (52-256 4.9 4 TD) and Terrance West (66-254 3.8 2 TD) may get more chances against the 24th rated Tampa defense against the run yielding 124 ground yards per contest.

 

Glennon (100/170 12157 8 TD 4 INT) who was sacked 5 times last week has not put up staggering numbers through TB's losing ways but Lovie Smith is not ready to make a QB change. Josh McGown (43/68 420 2 TD 4 INT) has returned from a thumb injury and started the 2014 campaign. Vincent Jackson (26-357 2 TD) caught just one pass for 13 yards last week against Minnesota, leaving Mike Evans (25-336 2 TD) as Glennon's top target over the past few games. TB was expecting more out of Bobby Rainey (62-287 4.6 1 TD) and Doug Martin (58-166 2.9 1 TD) who remains doubtful with an ankle injury. The Bucs are dead last in the league in total offense and defense, which has critics and fans prepared for yet another losing season barring a miracle.

 

Cleveland sits in last place in the competitive AFC North, but ther'e still half a season remaining leaving Mike Pettine optimistic. The Browns boast one of the NFL's best cover men in Joe Haden, who will be matched up against either Evans or Jackson this week. Haden's ball skills allow him to play a more prominent role. Tampa Bay’s defense ranks last in points allowed per game (31.9) and yards per game (409.9). Prior to Tuesday’s trade deadline, the Bucs traded safety Mark Barron to the Rams and reserve linebacker Jonathan Casillas to the Patriots in exchange for draft selections, making an already thin front line and secondary even thinner.

 

After losing to Jacksonville several weeks back before depending on some late plays in order to wrap up a win against Oakland, most would expect a more complete performance against yet another weak opponent. Hoyer should endure a greater dose of success against Tampa's generous secondary, while the running game should continue to pound the ball and the clock throughout.

[jimmythegreek]

also playing Philadelphia/Houston over 48.

 

Best of luck to all in week 9!

 

YTD 17-14-1 .547