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11-6 ESPN INSIDER Phil STEELE NCAA PICKS


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[h=3]Steele: Week 11 picks | Harris: Best bets | CFB PickCenter | ESPN Chalk[/h]

 

Each week during the 2014 college football season, I will offer up my picks and scores for the biggest games of the week, in addition to a handful of other key matchups.

Last week, my picks went 8-2 straight up and 5-5 against the spread. My overall record stands at 77-23 straight up and 50-49-1 against the spread.

While the playoff picture remains murky -- with 12 one-loss teams still left -- this week's slate of games involving several marquee matchups should bring further clarity to what has been one of the most exciting seasons in recent memory.

 

 


 

[h=3]No. 14 Ohio State Buckeyes at No. 8 Michigan State Spartans (minus-3.5)[/h] Saturday at 8 p.m. ET, ABC

 

 

"College Gameday" will be on site for this important Big Ten matchup that will not only decide the East Division but also serve as a playoff elimination game. Ohio State has won their past four trips to East Lansing and has not lost here since 1999.

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[h=4]Insider PickCenter[/h] Wondering which side to take? Check out PickCenter and do your research before making that critical decision. PickCenter

 

 

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The Buckeyes will be playing with revenge in mind after the Spartans ended their 24-game win streak and BCS title hopes in last year's Big Ten championship game. OSU tied a Big Ten record last week by winning their 20th straight regular-season conference game, dispatching Illinois 55-14.

The key matchup to watch will be how Ohio State quarterback J.T. Barrett fares against the No. 5 defense in the country, as he did struggle on the road two weeks ago against a formidable Penn State defense, totaling just 74 passing yards.

On the other side, the Spartans come in off a bye and could use another marquee win to bolster their playoff résumé. This will be the first November night game in Spartan Stadium history, as head coach Mark Dantonio is 7-2 in home night games. However, they are just 4-8 ATS as a Big Ten home favorite while Urban Meyer is 2-0 as a road underdog, including an upset over Michigan State two years ago. I look for this one to go down to the wire.

ATS Pick: Ohio State

Score: Michigan State 28, Ohio State 27

 

 


 

[h=3]No. 10 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at No. 9 Arizona State Sun Devils (minus-2.5)[/h] Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC

 

Last year, the Irish pulled off the upset over the Sun Devils in Arlington, Texas, as they won a shootout 37-34. This year's matchup is a playoff elimination game for both teams, as ND comes in at 7-1 after their 49-39 win over Navy last week. They did suffer a major loss, as leading tackler Joe Schmidt is out for the year with a broken ankle. This means highly rated true freshman Nyles Morgan will be getting the first start of his career and Arizona State head coach Todd Graham will no doubt try to make the young linebacker think and react.

While the Sun Devils have been impressive since their blowout loss to UCLA at home Sept. 25, luck also has been on their side. They got a Hail Mary touchdown pass to beat USC and faced a Washington team playing with a backup quarterback and running back. Last week, they faced a Utah team playing without their No. 1 wide receiver and then saw Utes All-American kicker Andy Phillips miss a chip shot field goal in overtime.

While the Sun Devils do get the advantage of this game being a local 1:30 p.m. start and temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 80s, the Irish are used to being on the national stage and just went down to Tallahassee last month and outgained the Florida State Seminoles by nearly 150 yards (the first team to do that since 2009). I also give the edge to Notre Dame quarterback Everett Golson over Arizona State quarterback Taylor Kelly, who has not looked the same since returning from injury.

ATS Pick: Notre Dame

Score: Notre Dame 34, Arizona State 31

 

 


 

[h=3]No. 7 Kansas State Wildcats at No. 6 TCU Horned Frogs (minus-6)[/h] Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET

 

TCU head coach Gary Patterson is a Kansas State graduate, but is 0-2 against his alma mater. In this contest last year, there were seven lead changes between the two teams, with the Wildcats making a game-winning, 41-yard field goal with three seconds left.

 

[+] Enlarge Ronald Martinez/Getty ImagesTrevone Boykin will be looking for a bounce-back effort in Week 11 against Kansas State.

 

 

 

This year, the Wildcats come in on a roll as they have won five straight games (and have covered six straight) since their tough 20-14 loss to Auburn. Head coach Bill Snyder is in his preferred role as a road underdog, as he is 13-1 ATS with seven outright upsets.

TCU is 7-1 ATS this year (the only non-cover was last week at West Virginia) and is 4-0 ATS as a home favorite this year, covering by an average of 16 points per game. The two teams have had three common foes, and while both have won all three games, TCU outgained those teams by 255 yards per game, while Kansas State was only plus-67 yards per game and were outgained by Oklahoma 533-385. I look for TCU QB Trevone Boykin to have a bounce-back effort here, as the Horned Frogs make a statement to be included in the College Football Playoff.

ATS Pick: TCU

Score: TCU 34, Kansas State 24

 

 


 

[h=3]No. 5 Alabama Crimson Tide (minus-6.5) at No. 16 LSU Tigers[/h] Saturday at 8 p.m. ET

 

The Crimson Tide have won the past three meetings between these two. When they last traveled to Baton Rouge in 2012, they trailed most of the game and were fortunate to pull out a 21-17 win. Last year, they won 38-17, but the game was much closer than the final score would seem to indicate. At halftime, LSU had a 232-193 yardage edge and it was tied at 17 in the third quarter.

Both teams come in off a bye, and both are playing their best ball of the season. The Crimson Tide are outgaining their foes by 232 yards per game while taking on my No. 12 toughest schedule, while LSU is plus-96 YPG against my No. 29 toughest schedule. Both teams have top-15 defenses, and while both prefer to run the ball, the difference here is at the quarterback and wide receiver positions.

The Crimson Tide are averaging 290 passing YPG and Blake Sims is completing 65 percent of his passes, with a 15-3 TD-to-INT ratio. He has by far the best wide receiver in the country to throw to in Amari Cooper, who leads all receivers from Power 5 conferences in receiving yards per game. On the other side, LSU is averaging just 129 passing YPG in its past four games, and QB Anthony Jennings is completing just 50 percent of his passes.

While Alabama is 1-6 ATS as a road favorite the past two years, and LSU is 3-0 ATS as a home underdog since 2010, I think the Crimson Tide could be the best team in the country when it's all said and done. I would favor them over any other team on a neutral field, and I'll call for them to come away with the win and cover here.

ATS Pick: Alabama

Score: Alabama 23, LSU 13

 

 


 

[h=3]No. 12 Baylor Bears at No. 15 Oklahoma Sooners (minus-5.5)[/h] Saturday at noon ET

 

Oklahoma won the first 15 meetings in this series in Big 12 play, but Baylor has now won two of the past three, and last year dominated the second half in a 41-12 win. They had a 459-237 yardage edge, and it was the largest underdog role Bob Stoops had been in his Oklahoma tenure (plus-16.5).

 

[+] Enlarge Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY SportsTrevor Knight has proved adept both through the air and on the ground.

 

 

 

Both teams had a bye two weeks ago and both routed inferior opponents last week. Baylor had a 30-12 first down and 669-304 yardage edge in a 60-14 win over Kansas, while Oklahoma had a 41-17 first down and 751-334 yardage edge in their 59-14 win over Iowa State. The Sooners piled up 510 rushing yards, which was their most since 1989. The offense had been inconsistent this year, with QB Trevor Knight being featured in the ground game less, but last week they officially took off the restraints and he had 146 rush yards.

This is the first time Baylor has been an underdog since the 2012 Holiday Bowl. The Bears are a much different team away from home, as their scoring margin drops from plus-39 PPG at home to plus-18 PPG; meanwhile, their YPG differential drops from plus-447 YPG at home to plus-114 YPG on the road.

The Sooners have never dropped back-to-back home games in the Bob Stoops era, and the Bears have not won in the state of Oklahoma since 1995, losing 18 straight games. Add it all up, and I will call for the Sooners to end the Bears' playoff hopes.

ATS Pick: Oklahoma

Score: Oklahoma 45, Baylor 34

 

 


 

[h=3]Quick Hitters[/h]

 

No. 4 Oregon Ducks (minus-8) at No. 17 Utah Utes

Saturday at 10 p.m. ET, ESPN

The home team has won all five matchups in the series. The Ducks are coming off their huge revenge game against Stanford, and could be in store for a little bit of a letdown here. On the other side, Utah saw their playoff chances eliminated last week, falling to Arizona State in overtime as usually reliable kicker Andy Phillips missed a field goal in overtime. The Utes are a home 'dog for the first time this year, but head coach Kyle Whittingham is 7-3 ATS in that role, and has pulled off some major upsets, including against a top-five Stanford team last year. While I will call for the Ducks to keep their playoff hopes alive, the Utes are the play here getting more than a touchdown.

ATS Pick: Utah

Score: Oregon 31, Utah 27

 

 


 

No. 20 Georgia Bulldogs (minus-10) at Kentucky Wildcats

Saturday at noon ET, ESPN

The Bulldogs have won 22 of the past 25 meetings in the series. Originally, this was considered a trap game for Georgia, as they are coming off a game with their rival Florida with a huge game against Auburn on deck. However, the dynamics of this game changed after the Bulldogs were run over by the Gators last week 38-20, which ended their playoff hopes. Now they have to win out and hope for a Missouri loss just to get to the SEC championship game. On the other side, while head coach Mark Stoops has the Wildcats much improved in his second year, this has been a brutal stretch for them, as they have lost three straight games by double digits. Now they take on an angry Bulldogs team off a loss and bear in mind that this is still the same Georgia team that beat Missouri 34-0 and led Arkansas 38-6 at one point (even without Todd Gurley).

ATS Pick: Georgia

Score: Georgia 38, Kentucky 23

 

 


 

Iowa Hawkeyes (minus-1.5) at Minnesota Golden Gophers

Saturday at noon ET, ESPN2

In the past two years, Iowa has outscored Minnesota 41-0 in the first half, as the Hawkeyes match up well with the Golden Gophers on both sides of the line of scrimmage. After starting the season 6-1 -- despite getting outgained by their opponents -- the Gophers were upset by Illinois 28-24 two weeks ago. Now after a bye week, they play the best the Big Ten has to offer, with Ohio State, Nebraska and Wisconsin on deck after this game, and they could very well find themselves 6-6 at the end of the year. On the other side, Iowa is coming off of a 48-7 blowout win over Northwestern, as they had a 483-180 yardage edge. They are outgaining their Big Ten opponents by 144 yards per game, and they have covered eight of their past nine games away from Kinnick Stadium. Hawkeyes win and cover in this series for a third straight year.

ATS Pick: Iowa

Score: Iowa 27, Minnesota 20

 

 


 

No. 25 Wisconsin Badgers (minus-17) at Purdue Boilermakers

Saturday at noon ET, ESPNU

The Badgers have owned the series as of late, as they have won eight in a row both straight up and against the spread. They have won the past four by 32 points per game, and in the past three have outgained the Boilers by 360 yards per game. They are coming off of back-to-back blowout wins, and for the season are outgaining their foes by 223 yards per game, which is fifth best in the country. The Boilers are much more competitive in Darrell Hazel's second year (7-2 against the spread). However, they are just 3-8 against the spread in their past 11 Big Ten home games, and were outgained by 264 and 192 yards in losses to Iowa and Michigan State at home earlier this year. The Badgers have won their past three trips to West Lafayette, all by 21 points or more, and I will call for more of the same here.

ATS Pick: Wisconsin

Score: Wisconsin 37, Purdue 16

 

 


 

Texas A&M Aggies at No. 3 Auburn Tigers (minus-21)

Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET

I do not know which is worse, losing 59-0 to Alabama, or nearly getting upset as a five-touchdown favorite to Louisiana-Monroe at home. The Aggies have now failed to cover in five straight games, as they were grossly overrated from that season-opening win over a South Carolina team that has proved to be mediocre. Last week, they were outgained 347-243, and Kyle Allen was a pedestrian 13-of-28 for 106 yards in his first start. On the other side, the Tigers are No. 3 in the country, and easily have the best résumé of the one-loss teams, with three wins over top-20 opponents. They are averaging 321 rush yards per game at home this year, and will be taking on a Texas A&M defense that is allowing 218 rushing yards per game in SEC play. The Tigers have covered 11 of their past 14 SEC games, while the Aggies are on a 2-8 ATS run in SEC play. Look for Auburn to roll here.

ATS Pick: Auburn

Score: Auburn 47, Texas A&M 20

 

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