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List +EV bar bets


FISHHEAD
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How about betting in a semi crowded bar two people share a birthday. ........ with a room of 30 people, the probability that 2 will share a birthday, is 70.6 percent, i.e. much more than 50%. it is from 23 people that you have just over 50% of having 2 common birthdays why? pretty easy start with one person add a 2nd person. and require that the 2nd person does NOT have a common birthday with the 1st person. There are 364 days to chose from, so the chance of that is 364/365=99.7%. now add a 3rd person. again, require that the 3rd person does NOT have a common bday w the other two. There are now 363 days to chose from, leaving 363/365=99.5%. BUT this is not all. You want both to NOT have common bdays for the 3rd, AND the 2nd person. These are independent events, so you must multiply the probabilities. If you do that, you get (364/365)*(363/365)=99.2 (not 99.5%) continue doing this, and at 10 people you get 88.3%. High but not that high. At 20 people you get 58.9%. At 30, 29.4%. At 50, you get to just 3%! Why is this relevant? Because the probability that at least two people share a birthday, is 1 minus the probability that none share a birthday. So, for 10 people, this is 11.7%, not that large. For 15, it is 25.2%. For 20, 41.1%. For 25, 56.8%. For 30, 70.6%. For 35, 81.4%. For 40, 89.1%. For 45, 94.1%. For 50, 97%. For 57, 99%. Bottom-line: from 23 people, there is a higher chance that 2 share a birthday, than that no one does. And from 57 people, there is quasi certainty that 2 share a birthday.

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On a full schedule day, say a dozen games or more, in MLB, bet that there will be two or more games with exactly the same two numbers for the final scores. You don't specify the numbers in the score, just that there will be two games that match. The numbers don't have to be in the same order.

 

Ex: for a 3-2 game, another 3-2 game or a 2-3 game would qualify as a match.

 

I can't give you a hit percent. Check a couple of weeks of scores. It happens nearly every time.

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