JIMMY THE GREEK SAYS

[jimmythegreek]

Marshall -25.5 over Southern Mississippi:

The unbeaten Thundering Herd (8-0) are coming off a bye after defeating Florida Atlantic 35-16 at Joan C. Edwards Stadium a couple of weeks back. While the performance wasn't anywhere near Marshall's dominating and vintage expectations, Devon Johnson's 272 yards on just 24 carries (11.3) and 4 TD's were more than enough to get the job done. Rakeem Cato completed just 13/24 passes for 218 yards and a 21 yard TD pass to Tommy Shuler (3-33 1 TD) to pull away late, while the defense allowed only 1 TD and 3 FG's despite surrendering 388 yards of total offense to the overmatched Owls. Marshall takes to the road to face Southern Mississippi (3-6) at M&M Roberts Stadium Saturday evening. The Golden Eagles are coming off an 35-14 loss to UTEP in week 10, their 4th loss in the last 5 games. USM committed 5 turnovers including 3 lost fumbles and were held to just 93 rushing yards. Cole Weeks completed just 20/46 for 309 yards with 1 TD and 2 INT, and the Golden Eagles special teams yielded a 98 yard kickoff return by UTEP's Autrey Golden. The Miners scored 2 TD's on defense which overcame a bleak outing by Jameil Showers who was just 10/23 for 107 yards.

 

 

Cato (132/228 2130 20 TD 6 INT) may have been surprised and perhaps even a little uninspired given the fact that FAU chased him around more than he probably wanted to be. The result was decent coverage in the secondary along with stretches of inaccuracy and miscommunication with his receivers. Shuler (34-446 5 TD) is Cato's top target and should get a lot more chances in the open field to catch passes against a USM secondary allowing 254 passing yards, rated 95th in the country. Angel Jean Louis (15-386 4 TD) has been held in check over the last 5 games with just 6 catches, so Doc Holiday may use Eric Frohnapfel (20-225 2 TD) and Craig Wilkins (15-180 2 TD) who scored twice against MTSU. In the backfield, Johnson (137-1203 8.8 15 TD) has run for 7 100 yard + games this season which has provided ample protection for Cato especially when gaining large chunks of yardage on first down. Cato (43-255 5.9 5 TD) is especially dangerous when the pocket breaks down and the coverage is ample in the secondary. He has the ability to scramble and turn potential negatives into positive ground gains. The Thundering Herd are well balanced on offense averaging about 570 yards and 45 points per contest which ranks second overall in the nation.

 

 

Nick Mullens (173/289 1950 10 TD 8 INT) suffered an injured right foot against La Tech and is listed as day to day. If Mullens, who had started 14 straight games cannot go, Weeks (48/93 647 1 TD 2 INT) will get the start. The Golden Eagles have a very solid receiving core led by Casey Martin (50-501 2 TD) and Michael Thomas (33-491 5 TD) as the top targets. However, their achillies heel is in the ground game averaging just 90 yards per contest ranking just 115th in the nation. George Payne (81-268 3.3) has rushed for all 6 So Miss TD's this season. Ito Smith (85-313 3.7) also gets the bulk of the carries but has yet to find the end zone. Marshall's run defense yields about 144 yards per contest which is ranked in the top half, while their pass defense gives up less than 200 yards overall.

 

Southern Miss has given up more than 30 points in four out of the last five games. Rakeem Nunez-Roches is 6-2 305, a junior who has been a force in the middle of the Southern Miss defensive line this season. He is third on the team with 50 tackles and also has 12½ tackles for a loss. Marshall's Johnson has a knack for the big play, with six rushes for more than 50 yards this season, including a 66-yard against Florida Atlantic in the Herd's last game. Cato has thrown a touchdown pass in 40 consecutive games, which is an FBS record. Johnson has proven to be just as big of a component to the offense as starting quarterback Rakeem Cato, who continues to pile up the accolades.

 

Marshall's defense has been almost as devastating to face as its offense. The Herd have only allowed an opponent to score more than 20 points twice this season - one of them was in the season opener against Mid-American Conference foe Miami-Ohio. Marshall is allowing just 16.5 ppg, so the scoring differential between the Herd and their opponents is monumental. The team is holding opponents to a 31-percent success rate on third down conversions, and a 27-percent rate on fourth down tries. Linebacker Neville Hewitt tops the defense with 62 tackles on the year, and has been a pest hanging around in opponents' backfields. He's registered eight tackles for loss and a team-high four sacks, having also picked up a fumble recovery. Defensive back A.J. Leggett is one to watch out for in the secondary, considering he leads Marshall with three interceptions. The defensive backfield is boosted by the presence of Corey Tindal (eight pass breakups) and Tiquan Lang (four pass breakups).

 

We certainly hope the third time is a charm backing Marshall this season, as they failed to cover in the previous two against Miami Ohio and a few weeks ago against FAU. Southern Miss started the season well, considering how the 2013 campaign ended up. But over the last five games the Golden Eagles have been in a steady decline, while Marshall continues to dominate any competition with an overpowering offense and a stifling defense. I see both Cato and Johnson having a balanced effort, and as we approach the college playoff and bowl selections, Marshall may need to pick up some more style points in order to receive the ranking they truly deserve.

 

[jimmythegreek]

(25) Wisconsin -17 over Purdue (bought half):

25th ranked Wisconsin (6-2) has outscored its opposition 89-7 over the last 2 weeks and has won 3 straight overall after last week's 37-0 ransacking of Rutgers. The Badger defense held the Scarlet Knights to just 139 total yards making them bowl eligible for the 13th consecutive season. Corey Clement ran for 131 yards on just 14 carries (9.4) and 2 TD's of 43 and 36 yards. The Badgers ran for 298 yards overall which meant Joel Stave (7/16 81) was well protected and didn't have to do much except turn in a turnover free performance. Meanwhile, Purdue (3-6) dropped its 3rd straight with a 35-14 loss to Nebraska, Wisconsin's opponent next week in a game that could decide the Big 10 West. Austin Appleby completed just 18/46 for 216 yards with a rushing TD and 2 INT's. The Boilermakers were held to just 124 yards on the ground despite the defense yielding only 297 total yards to the Cornhuskers. Nebraska however scored 3 times on the ground, two by Imani Cross and one by Austin Appleby. Wisconsin takes on Purdue Saturday at noon from Ross-Ade Stadium.

 

The Badgers feature a duo at QB consisting of Stave (31/64 423 3 TD 3 INT) and Tanner McEvoy (64/111 703 5 TD 6 INT), however the cornerstone of their offense revolves around their 3rd ranked rushing attack averaging 333 yards per contest. Melvin Gordon (173-1296 7.5 18 TD) had 128 yards and 2 scores in the win over Rutgers last week, and has eclipsed 100 yards in 7 of his 8 starts this season. Clement (106-697 6.6 7 TD) is the Badger's second option and has had similar success in sustaining Wisconsin's methodical strike, protecting Stave and limiting the passing game into deeper situations in potential scoring drives. When Wisconsin does rely on the passing game, Alex Erickson (32-440 2 TD) is the primary target, with San Arneson (17-257 3 TD) used as a shorter option out of the flat and on corner routes. The Badgers may be relatively one-dimensional, but their defense sets up short fields and numerous scoring opportunities controlling the clock against the opposition.

 

Purdue's offense features Appleby (82/152 871 7 TD 6 INT) who struggled last week against Nebraska's pass rush and secondary which allows 216 passing yards per game. The Boilermakers were never able to establish a consistent offensive flow, and are ranked near the bottom averaging only 185 passing yards per contest. They are however balanced in the receiving core led by Danny Anthrop (38-616 4 TD) who caught 4 passes for 80 yards last week. Akeen Hunt (36-198) is still looking for his first receiving TD but is the lead RB (125-706 5.6 5 TD). Hunt has ran for more than 100 yards only once this season, and was held to just 66 in week 10. Raheem Mosert (79-480 6.1 3 TD) is secondary but provides balance when Purdue is established in the running game, while Appleby (36-187 5.2 5 TD) is mobile out of the pocket. Danny Etling (89/162 800 6 TD 5 INT) hasn't seen any action since 9/27 against Iowa but could be brought on at anytime to spark an otherwise inconsistent offense.

 

While the Badgers have struggled containing the big play by allowing plenty of balls to go over the top of the defense, one area they have excelled in is their coverage of underneath throws. Gone are the days of bend-but-don't-break as defensive coordinator Dave Aranda's scheme is far more aggressive. With safety Michael Caputo (57 tackles, 3.5 TFL and one interception) and inside linebacker Derek Landisch (43 tackles, 11 TFL and five sacks) having monster seasons, the Badgers are well prepared to cover the underneath throws that Purdue makes a living off of. Purdue needs to sell out against the run as well if they even expect to have a legitimate shot Stopping Clement and Gordon will be a tall order especially even with extra men sniffing around the line of scrimmage. Anthrop will likely be working across from Darius Hillary, who has shut down top receivers in each of the past two weeks.

 

The Badgers have been playing their best defense of the season in the past two weeks, and I'd look for that to continue against a potentially weakened Purdue team. Without Anthrop in the lineup, the Boilermakers' receiving corps is weak, and the Badgers can take advantage of that.. Look for Wisconsin to continue to pound the running game, with the combination of Stave to remain efficient en route to a punishing of Purdue not looking ahead to a key matchup next week. Best of luck however you play!

 

YTD 5-6-1 .458

[Guest ChrisHarvard]

Great stuff, jimmy. Thanks for posting.

[jimmythegreek]

We're back over .500 after Wisconsin squeaks by with a late field goal and Marshall's offense wakes up in a big way after surrendering 2 early TD's! Let's hope we can duplicate the success today in the NFL. Thanks and congrats to all that followed!