pokerjoe Posted November 11, 2014 Report Share Posted November 11, 2014 Will be played in sick cold, possibly snowy weather, and the totals have understandably collapsed. For me to make sense of the totals, I have to take a full TD off these games, which seems like too much. This sets up my kind of correlated parlay: if you think the market is overreacting on these games, you may as well parlay the overs. And if you think it's underreacting, you may as well parlay the unders. It's possible the market is perfect, but this is not the kind of thing any handicapper can really have expertise about, because the DB is necessarily too small, which makes me think, mostly, that a few opinions have been bet in (and small, because the books are sensitive about these MAC totals), and those opinions may not be powerful. GL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pokerjoe Posted November 12, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 So I get 3 pts CLV on both these (had Akron at >47.5 -120, and Toledo >59, and they close at 51 and 62). Tomorrow? I still have both those games over. I think a 3 point adjustment for the weather is plenty, and it takes ~6 points for these lines to make sense to me. And yes, AFAIK, I'm the only guy on the forums who thinks like this, lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pokerjoe Posted November 12, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 And now it looks like 2' to 3 points rise on these Wed totals, too. I suppose someone whacked these 4 unders early, when the lines were sensitive, and it led to book's overreacting. 6 point drop for the weather was redic; 3 made more sense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hangover Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 Isnt MAC known for being crooked in regards to sportsbetting. Their totals never make sense. Whenever i try to cap them the final score is usually off from my number by at leas 21 pts. Learned to avoid the MAC unless desperate for action heh. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maron Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 Under team total for Kent State Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maron Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 Isnt MAC known for being crooked in regards to sportsbetting. Their totals never make sense. Whenever i try to cap them the final score is usually off from my number by at leas 21 pts. Learned to avoid the MAC unless desperate for action heh. Mac commissoner is Canadian explains it all [video=youtube;Q1a36V737qk] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pokerjoe Posted November 12, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 I doubt the MAC is crooked. Less efficient market, though. Anyway, the Ball State game is up from 60' to 65, and Kent/BG is up from 52 to 55. I always respect line moves such as these games had early, but to blindly fear them (and thus never fade them) is cowardly, and leaving a lot of money on the table. Anyway the real point of the OP was that there are sometimes correlated parlays out there of a different sort. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hangover Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 Lol cowardly not betting MAC games...thats a new one. Here is a good parlay. MAC/midweek...risking 1 unit to win 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrigley Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 Bowling Green -14 looks to easy tonight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pokerjoe Posted November 12, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 Hangover: it's got nothing to do with the MAC. There are sometimes correlated parlays of the sort you're not seeing. AND it's true that line moves are sometimes gross overreactions, and it you do your own work (make your own numbers) you'll see them. MAC or not has nothing to do with it. But generally, about betting the MAC or any other smaller conference games: there's absolutely nothing wrong with it, and in fact, if you're not doing it, you're not a handicapper at all, just a guess-bot. I understand you've been killed betting MAC games, but you've been killed betting everything else, too. Are all the other conferences and leagues also fixed? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hangover Posted November 13, 2014 Report Share Posted November 13, 2014 Hangover: it's got nothing to do with the MAC. There are sometimes correlated parlays of the sort you're not seeing. AND it's true that line moves are sometimes gross overreactions, and it you do your own work (make your own numbers) you'll see them. MAC or not has nothing to do with it. But generally, about betting the MAC or any other smaller conference games: there's absolutely nothing wrong with it, and in fact, if you're not doing it, you're not a handicapper at all, just a guess-bot. I understand you've been killed betting MAC games, but you've been killed betting everything else, too. Are all the other conferences and leagues also fixed? Lol not sure if you are attempting to troll so Im gonna ignore the guess-bot and assuming I get killed betting everything statements. Share the wealth and post some of your MAC plays bro. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pokerjoe Posted November 13, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 13, 2014 Dude, I just did, ITT, and I'm sure you hit it, right? Correlated parlay: bet both overs, and, at the close, both unders. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pokerjoe Posted November 13, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 13, 2014 And I didn't troll you. Anyone who thinks games are fixed and that betting smaller conference games is burning money is as square as they come. I'm not sure which of these two views is the squarest--it would be a close race--but you hold both of them. You trolled yourself. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hangover Posted November 13, 2014 Report Share Posted November 13, 2014 Your a troll bro. Never definitely said games are fixed...if they were I would not make good money doing this. I will be on the look out for your MAC plays going forward. Can you be more specific tho. Parlay both overs and unders doesnt really work for me lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maron Posted November 13, 2014 Report Share Posted November 13, 2014 1-0-1 on last nights Mac Plays http://thegamblingforum.com/americas-bookie-examines-ball-state-visiting-umass-tonight-8pm/ UMass Covered http://thegamblingforum.com/mac-mismatch-a-minefield-for-tgf-this-evening/ Team Total Kent State Pushed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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