WMtribe17 Posted January 17, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2015 Adding: Drexel Delaware UNDER 125.5 (-105) - 1.05 to win 1 Charleston NE OVER 117.5 (-110) - 1.1 to win 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WMtribe17 Posted January 17, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2015 Good god, there might end up being 60+ total fouls in the UNCW Hofstra game... Isn't helping the under that Hofstra is 30-35 from the FT line... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WMtribe17 Posted January 17, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2015 Quality road win for UNCW over Hofstra (despite letting Hofstra get to the FT ~40 times) Adding: Elon JMU UNDER 132.5 (-110) - 2.2 to win 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WMtribe17 Posted January 21, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2015 Recap from Sunday: W&M with another subpar performance in the 1st half followed by another stellar 2nd half. Elon really got shafted by the refs all game long against JMU and was still almost able to squeak out a victory. 2nd worst officiated game (behind the WM Richmond game) I have seen involving a CAA team this season. All 5 games went over Saturday and I think every game (maybe except the UD Drexel game) had an extremely high number of fouls called in the game. Hopefully it was just an outlier (as I tend to like going with unders). UNCW might surprise everyone and win the CAA. They already have all the difficult road games done with (at WM, NE, & Hofstra) and could easily finish the last 10 going anywhere from 7-3 to 9-1. Wednesday games Hofstra -12 (-110) vs. Drexel - 2.2 to win 2 - Bad matchup for Drexel. Hofstra does a very good job of drawing fouls and getting to the FT line, which isn't a good recipe for a Drexel team that only has 8 healthy players. Hofstra just needs to contain Lee and they shouldn't have much trouble covering. UNCW ML (+120) - 1.5 to win 1.8 - UNCW has just looked way better on both sides of the court than Charleston. UNCW seems to play to the level of their competition, but the way they have looked so far in the CAA, it is too difficult to pass on +money against a struggling Charleston team. W&M -7.5 vs. Delaware (-110) - 1.1 to win 1 - W&M has historically not played well against UD, but this should be a game they win by double digits. W&M should have no trouble scoring the ball and just need to play average defense and rebound the ball to win comfortably. Hofstra Drexel OVER 132 (-110) - 1.1 to win 1 - I expect to see a lot of fouls and FTs taken in this game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WMtribe17 Posted January 22, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 22, 2015 Forgot I didn't update my units from saturday 32-35-1, -7.7 units Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WMtribe17 Posted January 22, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 22, 2015 Just awful defense from W&M in the 2nd half. Think Delaware is shooting about 75% in the 2nd half. Good 2nd half adjustments from Delaware. They doubled Thornton anytime he touched the ball and left the Tribe bigs wide open (who are black holes on offense). On defense, Delaware ran a ton of ball screens and once there guards were matched up against the Tribe bigs I thinked they scored every single time (literally not kidding, every single time...) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WMtribe17 Posted January 23, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 23, 2015 3-1, +3.7 35-36-1, -4.0 units Thursday JMU PK (2H) vs. NE (-110) - 1.1 to win 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WMtribe17 Posted January 24, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 24, 2015 35-37-1, -5.1 units Saturday Drexel PK (-110) vs. Charleston - 2.2 to win 2 - Tough backing Drexel in any spot where they are not a big dog, but Charleston is probably the only team that has looked worse than them during conference play. Getting a pickem with Drexel is good value, as I think the books are about 2-3 points off on this one. W&M -3 vs. NE (-110) - 1.1 to win 1 - Tough schedule spot for NE. Not only is it their 4th game in 7 days, but they have to go from playing a home game late Thursday (in Boston) to playing a road game early Saturday (in Williamsburg). That had to limit the amount of time they got to prep for W&M. W&M NE OVER 139.5 (-110) - 1.1 to win 1 - Higher than I would like to see, but these teams have played high scoring games against each other the past few seasons. Throw in better offenses for both teams this season and a faster pace that previous years for W&M and I see both teams hitting 70. Will add more once the totals for the later games are out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WMtribe17 Posted January 24, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 24, 2015 Adding: Drexel Charleston UNDER 61.5 (2H) (-110) - .55 to win .5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WMtribe17 Posted January 24, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 24, 2015 Adding: Delaware +4 (-115) - 1.15 to win 1 and ML (+155) 0.5 units - Teams have learned how to defend Elon and they have struggled on offense since the W&M game. Delaware has quietly been improving as their young players have consistently been improving. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WMtribe17 Posted January 27, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2015 39-37-1, -2.25 At the midway point so far in the CAA and it is safe to say this is the most unpredictable I have seen the league since I started betting the CAA in 2006. It seems like when 1 team gets a nice win over another team, they follow it by stinking it up the next game. I will post my midseason standings (based on how well the team has played IMO for the 1st half of conference play) later today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WMtribe17 Posted January 27, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2015 Forgot there is an 18 game CAA conference schedule this year, so I will wait on the midseason performance standings until after the Wednesday games (which will be the midpoint of the CAA schedule) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WMtribe17 Posted January 28, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2015 Wednesday 1/28 W&M Hofstra OVER 150.5 (+EV) - 2 to win 2 Drexel NE UNDER 118 (-110) - 1.1 to win 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WMtribe17 Posted January 28, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2015 Adding: Delaware JMU OVER 136 (-110) - 2.2 to win 2 W&M -2.5 vs. Hofstra (-110) - 1.1 to win 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WMtribe17 Posted January 29, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2015 Not sure what game Michalich is watching, but w&m starting the game on a 32-13 run and not using 1 timeout to get your teamed calm down is just baffling. W&M's offense is on fire so far and Hofstra's defense is getting exposed badly by Tribe passing. W&M is doing an excellent job on the defensive glass (surprising since Sheldon is out) and the Tribe bigs are doing a pretty good job of defending the paint Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WMtribe17 Posted January 29, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2015 Adding: Hofstra -3.5 (2H) (-110) - 0.55 to win 0.5 - 1 part hedge bet,1 part W&M tends to have a let down in the 2nd half coming off a big 1st half Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WMtribe17 Posted January 29, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2015 In typical unlucky fashion, 31 points are scored between NE & Drexel in the last minute and change of the game... They had 94 at the 1:20 mark and the total ended up at 125... 3-2, +3.35 42-39-1, +1.10 Quick notes about the games: W&M with a very impressive 1st half, but were very sloppy with the ball in the 2nd half. Luckily the Tribe shot very well from the FT line and that allowed them to maintain a double digit lead throughout the 2nd half. UNCW just gave Elon a beatdown. JMU was able to hold on against Delaware - Delaware continues to improve and I have a feeling they are going to upset somebody in the CAA tourney (especially if they can start playing just a little bit of defense). NE with anothe poor showing as they just lost at Drexel. Although they are 6-3 in conference play and only 1 game back, NE has not looked very good to me in conference play outside of the home games against Hofstra and JMU (they were lucky to hold on against Towson and C of C) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WMtribe17 Posted January 29, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2015 My Midseason Performance Standings: 10) C of C - Surprised how awful they have been this season. I figured they would be a subpar team on the offensive end (although they exceeded expectations and are a black hole on offense), but there defense has been pretty bad also. Projected end of season conference record: 3-15 9) Towson - They have done worse than I thought they would before the season started. They haven't gotten much production out of their transfers and have badly struggled shooting the ball. Davis has been a beast for them and is largely responsible for the wins they have gotten. They have done well in the rebounding department (especially on the offensive end), but have looked subpar to awful in just about every other statistical category. Proj. end record: 4-14 8) Elon - This team has been all over the place in their performances. I thought they looked good during their play out of conference, but after there upset win over W&M, they have just looked awful on both ends of the court. Although this team can be deadly from 3 point range, they are subpar on the boards, are terrible on the defensive end, and cough the ball up too many times. Teams have for the most part adjusted to Elon's offense by marking them tightly in man defense. Proj. end record: 5-13 7) Drexel - It's hard to find much positive with this team outside of Damion Lee. Luckily for Drexel, Damion Lee by himself is able to compete with the bottom half of the league. Drexel just scored a nice victory over NE where Lee contributed over half of their points. When Rodney Williams presumably returns from injury in the next few weeks, their interior defense and rebounding should improve quite a bit. The big challenge for Drexel in the 2nd half of conference play - find some consistent scorers not named Damion Lee. Tavon Allen needs to revert back to his last year's self and shoot a good percentage from the field and contribute 10-15 points consistently. Proj. end record: 8-10 6) Delaware - I thought coming into the season Delaware was going to have a rough year. Losing 4 starters and being without their 5th starter for the 1st month of the season is almost impossible to recover from. After Anderson returned and their young freshmen and sophomores got some experience, they have looked much better and have been competitive for most of their CAA games. Holden looks like he will be a very good point guard as he gets more experience - he has a very quick first step that is right up there with W&Ms Marcus Thornton. Delaware needs to start improving on the defensive end of the court to be able to consistently challenge the top half of the league. Pro. end record: 7-11 5) Hofstra - My winner for biggest disappointment of the 1st half of play. With the talent this team has, there is no way they should be 5-4 right now (and lucky to be that). They honestly haven't looked good in any game I have seen them play so far in conference. They have been terrible on defense and their offense hasn't been efficient shooting the ball. Fortunately for them, they draw enough fouls and get to the FT line where they shoot well. Juan'ya Green really needs to improve on his FG % in the 2nd half (38%) and the team defense needs to at least become average if they expect to compete for the league crown. Luckily for Hofstra, the 2nd half of their schedule is pretty easy. Proj. end record: 12-6 4) Northeastern - Another team who has disappointed me in the way they have looked in conference play. Luckily for Northeastern, they have been able to survive some poor games they have played due to their opponents being so awful (Towson and C of C). Northeastern has an easy 3 game home stretch before a tough 3 game stand @Hof, @UNCW & W&M. Survive that and win the easy ones, and they could win the conference. Proj. end record: 12-6 3) JMU - I am going to be honest. I never would have thought this team would play as well as it has without Nation. Despite Nation getting dismissed from the team (which a blind man would have seen coming...), they have continued to play good defense and spread the ball around pretty well on offense. Curry has stepped up big time since Nation left and has become the go to guy when JMU needs a bucket. JMU also got a lot of their difficult games out of the way in the 1st half and now get the top half of the league at home for the 2nd half. If they win the games against the bottom half and split the games against W&M, Hofstra, & UNCW twice, they can realistically win the conference. Proj. end record: 12-6 2) UNCW (they would be #1 if W&M hadn't looked so dominant in just about all of their wins) - While I thought UNCW would be a scary team to play next year and would pull off a big upset or 2 in conference play, I never would have expected them to be tied for the lead at the midway point. And to think, if not for the amazing comeback by W&M when they met earlier, they could be atop the league at 8-1. UNCW is a very balanced team with a good frontcourt that controls the glass and are efficient scorers in the paint + a good backcourt that score in a variety of ways. UNCW has been inconsistent on the defensive end and they tend to have games where they can't stop fouling, but overall they have been solid on the defensive side (they have struggled to defend the top CAA teams though). UNCW has a very favorable 2nd half schedule and probably IMO the most likely team to win the CAA crown. Proj. end record: 14-4 1) W&M - I don't think I have ever seen a 9 game stretch where a Tribe team has been this scary efficient on offense. After a bad OOC showing, Omar Prewitt has stepped up and been that much needed scoring threat that he was last year. Marcus Thornton has been making most defenders look like fools and continue to make me question how power conference teams didn't get this guy. Terry Tarpey has been Mr. everything as he has beyond impressed me in CAA play. Concerns for W&M: Rebounding and perimeter defense. They struggle at times to rebound on defense against physical teams and they struggle to defend quick guards and keep them from driving to the hoop. W&M has a very difficult 2nd half schedule and if they end up winning the CAA crown, they will have definitely earned it. Proj. end record: 13-5 1st half MVP: Terry Tarpey (2nd - Damion Lee, 3rd Marcus Thornton) - I know the most sensible picks would be Lee or Thornton, but Tarpey really has been amazing with how he contributes in the stat sheet. In conference play (on a per game basis), Tarpey is 10th in scoring, 1st in rebounding (amazing for a 6-5 guard), 2nd in FG%, 5th in FT%, 4th in assists, 1st in steals, 3rd in blocks, and 2nd in assist-TO ratio. I don't think I have ever seen a CAA player be in the top 10 (most categories top 5) in that many different areas. 1st team: Lee (Drexel), Thornton (W&M), Sprull (UNCW), Tarpey (W&M), Davis (Towson) 2nd team: Green (Hofstra), Tanksley (Hofstra), Holden (Delaware), Prewitt (W&M), Eatherton (NE) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WMtribe17 Posted January 29, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2015 Thursday C of C Towson UNDER 116.5 (-110) - 2.2 to win 2 - Afraid to play an under the way overs have been hitting the past 2-3 weeks, but this is a battle of the 2 worst offenses in the CAA. If C of C can hold Towson to a respectable amount of O-boards and Towson can defend the 3 point line, both of these teams willl struggle to break 50. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WMtribe17 Posted January 31, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 42-40-1, -1.1 Saturday Delaware -2 (-110) - 3.3 to win 3 - Like this matchup. Delaware has the speed to get in transition and do damage against C of C, especially with C of C's tendency to turn the ball over. Love the guard pair of Anderson and Holden and I just don't see C of C being able to keep up with Delaware in a shootout. Will add more tomorrow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WMtribe17 Posted January 31, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 Adding: UNC-W ML (+105) vs. Drexel - 2 to win 2.1 - Can't resist getting UNCW at +EV. Rodney Williams is back for Drexel and I know they are coming off a nice win against NE, but I still don't trust Drexel on offense outside of Damion Lee. UNC-W Drexel OVER 124.5 (-110) - 1.1 to win 1 Delaware C of C OVER 127 (-110) - 1.1 to win 1 NE -9.5 (-110) vs. Elon - 1.1 to win 1 W&M JMU OVER 142 (-105) - 1.05 to win 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WMtribe17 Posted February 2, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 2, 2015 5-1, +5.00 47-41-1, +3.9 Now that February has come, hopefully I can catch fire the last month of the regular season and into the CAA tourney. Notes from Saturday: Clean sweep for the overs. All 10 games this week hit the over (most of them well above the total). Hofstra with a downright embarrassing blowout loss to Towson. Huge disappointment for this team to be 5-5 with the talent they have. Since Rodney Williams returned for Drexel last Wednesday against NE, Drexel is 2-0 with 2 quality wins against NE and UNCW. Damion Lee has been going off and with the way he is scoring, if Drexel can revert to their usual stout Bruiser Flint defense, they could be a darkhorse in the CAA tourney. W&M continues to be scary good on offense. Tough to cover all the shooting threats they have on their team (in addition to Marcus Thornton). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WMtribe17 Posted February 5, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 5, 2015 Thursday (2/5) W&M -5 (-115) - 2.3 to win 2 - The Tribe had their way against Charleston's defense last time they met in Williamsburg. W&M has been doing a great job of spreading the ball around and getting a lot of good looks from the field on the offensive end. C of C doesn't have the offensive firepower to keep pace with W&M (especially if W&M reaches the 70s) Drexel +4 (-110) - 1.65 to win 1.5 and ML (+155) 0.5 units Drexel Elon OVER 130.5 (-110) - 1.65 to win 1.5 W&M Charleston OVER 133.5 (-110) - 1.65 to win 1.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WMtribe17 Posted February 6, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 6, 2015 Well, that was a pathetic showing from W&M... Thought I might actually luck out on the Drexel over, but of course it misses by 1/2 a point. I think I am only allowed bad luck on betting overs where the final score finishes within 3 points of the total... 3-2, -0.175 50-43-1, +3.725 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WMtribe17 Posted February 7, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 7, 2015 Saturday (2/7) Delaware +11 (-115) vs. NE - 2.3 to win 2 Will add more once totals are up Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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