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NCAAB CAA Predictions and Plays


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[TABLE=border: 0, cellpadding: 0, cellspacing: 0]

[TR]

[TD]11/21/2014[/TD]

[TD]543[/TD]

[TD]Georgia State[/TD]

[TD]+7[/TD]

[TD]+7[/TD]

[TD] [/TD]

[TD] $ 300.00[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]11/21/2014[/TD]

[TD]573[/TD]

[TD]Illinois State [/TD]

[TD]-4[/TD]

[TD]-4[/TD]

[TD] [/TD]

[TD] $ 220.00[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]11/21/2014[/TD]

[TD]595[/TD]

[TD]Wofford[/TD]

[TD]-4[/TD]

[TD]-4[/TD]

[TD] [/TD]

[TD] $ 150.00[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]11/21/2014[/TD]

[TD]561[/TD]

[TD]Akron[/TD]

[TD]+9[/TD]

[TD]+9 1/2[/TD]

[TD] [/TD]

[TD] $ 110.00[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]11/21/2014[/TD]

[TD]558[/TD]

[TD]New Mexico[/TD]

[TD]-6 1/2[/TD]

[TD]-6[/TD]

[TD] [/TD]

[TD] $ 150.00[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

 

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USC must be something awful on defense if Drexel got 70 on them. Sadly enough, Drexel still didn't win.

 

Should have still bet the UNDER in the Charleston TX A&M game. Thought the total would be 125-127 and didn't like seeing it at 121.

 

Didn't get a chance to do much research on Cal Poly and unfortunately the line has already gone up 1.5 points. Still might make a play onit, but it seems like Cal Poly struggles on the offensive end and might make it tough to win by 9+

 

Also on GA. St. - that was the one spread that stood out to me last night and thought was a good number.

Will throw some more on the rest of your plays.

 

GL tonight

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Yeah missed the under badly. Too many easy layups for WV off of Mason turnovers. 2nd half played too fast because Mason was trying to catch up. Good thing about watching that game is Mason is completely incapable of beating the press and will struggle to cover against those teams I.e. vacuum

 

Charleston total is lower than anticipated but I did bet:

Drexel USC UNDER 121 (-110) 2.2 to win 2

 

I see my phone's auto-correct turned VCU into vacuum...

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You as well. Pretty busy at the office today so couldn't go too much into the games. Luckily it looks like you missed Akron; I had no clue if their performance was more of a testament to how bad USC was, or if they were better than expected. After watching that USC vs Drexel performance I realized that Akron was probably bad as well, and Miami would have their with them but by that time I was already in on Akron. On the plus side, the uncertainty led me to play Akron really small so not a huge impact on my day.

 

Illinois State hasn't played well yet this season, and are still coming together as a unit. They have a lot of talent, and getting on the road might actually be good for these guys. If they play poorly again tonight, I'll probably stay away from them until conference season. They may be too inconsistent to play.

 

Georgia State looked horrible vs Iowa State but they are not a bad basketball team nor should travel really effect them. Something I ignored a bit this year, and regret, was I rarely play teams for their first true road test. Iowa State was that test for Georgia State and they looked lost. They should be better off on the road going forward.

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Yeah, I am used to slow starts until January comes.

 

Sunday

 

Southern Miss +3.5 (-110) vs. Drexel 1.1 to win 1 and ML (+145) 1 unit - Still can't resist betting against Drexel as favorites until they show me that someone not named Damion Lee can step up and score. Tavon Allen has been very disappointing so far for Drexel and none of the other players are capable of putting up double digits often. Southern Miss seems to be a much more competent team than Drexel on the offensive end, but the lack of size does leave me a bit worried about their ability to rebound and defend the paint. Luckily, Drexel doesn't have much size also and I don't think will capitalize as much on that advantage as other teams that face So. Miss. will

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Southern Miss further proving my point in my inability to predict non-CAA teams. Southern Miss finally started covering Damion Lee in the 2nd half and as a result was much better on the defensive end. Unfortunately when your offensive sets consist of aimlessly dribbling the ball for 30 seconds and then attempting a low percentage shot, you are not going to score many points. Outside of easy transition baskets off of SM terrible offense/turnovers, I think Drexel had about 10 points through their offensive sets

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3-10, -8.05 units (jesus did not expect to get off to this slow of a start...)

 

Wednesday

 

W&M +7.5 vs. Richmond (-110) 1.5 units to win 1.35 units and ML (+295) 0.5 units - I have watched W&M the past 3 games and they have looked about as good on defense as they have looked since their '09 team. Dixon is a lockdown perimeter defender, Tarpey is very good defensively, and Thornton has improved significantly on D from last year. Although 2 of their last 3 wins were against terrible teams, they did a pretty good job defensively against an underrated Wofford team until they started bricking FTs left and right down the stretch to make it closer than it should have. Richmond (thankfully) doesn't have Cedrick Lindsey anymore, who seemed to always put up huge numbers against W&M. Richmond also really struggles on the boards and that helps W&M as rebounding is always a concern of mine for them (although the team rebounding on the defensive end has been very good to start the season). 7.5 is a lot to ask Richmond to cover when they don't seem impressive on either side of the court.

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Able to attend the game tonight and I am going to give Marcus Thornton a shoutout! Guy had an unbelievable game and was breaking so many ankles that the Richmond football team was going wild on every shot he made.

 

That being said, that game was one of the worst (and one-sided) officiated games I have seen in a long time. The fact that W&M had a chance to win that game is unbelievable. Ticky-tack foul calls on W&M the entire 2nd half, UR literally mauling Thornton the last 5 minutes of the game (and not one foul called), a shit ton of other bad calls (too many to write), and to top it off, Prewitt gets fouled while doing a layup with 5 seconds left and the refs somehow (literally every fan, both UR and W&M, was confused) called it a one-and-one and Prewitt of course horribly bricks the FT. Thornton didn't deserve to lose and it took the refs and some terrible defensive rebounding from W&M to deny him the win.

 

And that ends my rant...

 

4-11, -7.25

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  • 2 weeks later...

5-13, -9.45

 

Sunday (12/28)

 

Iona -4.5 (-110) vs Drexel - 1.1 to win 1

Iona -2.5 1H (-105) vs Drexel - 1.05 to win 1

Iona Drexel UNDER 149 (-110) - 1.1 to win 1

 

I think Iona is just too efficient on the offensive end for Drexel to cover the spread. I know Iona's defense is bad, but with how inept Drexel's offense is, I don't see them hanging with Iona if Iona reaches the mid 70s. I expect Drexel to run their half court sets and slow the tempo down and limit the transition opportunities for Iona. If Drexel wants to beat Iona, it is imperative that they do not get sloppy with the ball.

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