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It's Long Way To Rollover: Calling Heads Against the Line-College Football Edition


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I see house flies have been banned in this forum. I will flip my coin here and provide some generally useless commentary on some bets for those bored enough to read. All bets 1.1 unit unless stated otherwise.

 

Best Bet 2.2u

 

Texas A&M -1 vs. UCLA

 

Sumlin is on the hot seat with a loss in this game and the QB Knight has something to prove as well and has shown flashes. He is likely to be as good as Allen from last season. A&M has some good defensive players coming back and UCLA lost most of their offense. Don't see the West Coast boys traveling well to Texas where the Aggies are tough against anybody.

 

Georgia -3 vs. UNC

 

UNC should be a pretty good team but was weak against the run last year and if Chubb is healthy, they should do pretty well. The freshman QB for Georgia should help the offense a bit and the defense should be good enough to keep UNC from lighting up the scoreboard. This may turn out to be a bad bet as Georgia is pretty hit and miss but it is worth losing money on. 

 

Notre Dame -3.5 vs. Texas

 

Texas may be a Top 25 team this year if the rich kid freshman QB is any good. The OC got Tulsa going so good chance Texas will be able to move the ball at least a little. Texas beat OU and Baylor last year so this is dangerous. But until Texas shows they have a clue, I have to take Notre Dame as they are returning a lot of talent. Any other week but the opener and I might stay away but ND should be focused and not caught off guard by an improved Texas. I am willing to lose my money on this bet.

 

 

 

I am going to cheat here a bit since I posted these picks in another thread and call it fair game, especially since they are plus CLV 

 

Arkansas -20.5 vs. LaT-

 

I can't win a -21 bet to save my life but this was not -21 when I made it. Arkansas returns a lot on defense and should be pretty tough on LaT which lost its RB and QB from last year. They also lost most of their defense which will probably not go well. Arkansas' RBs are not very exciting but they've got some back that moved the ball last year and the QB Allen is supposed to be more talented than his brother. Another year of the Head Hog's recruits should let them maintain a pretty high level of play. 

 

Missouri +13 vs. West Virginia

 

I am not much of an underdog bettor but I can't help myself on this one. Mizzou was horrible offensively last year but hell on defense. They should be improved on offense this year just because they have to be and they've got a new coordinator. Freshman QB is a year older and soph WRs too. The OL maybe at least has a good first week.

 

West Virginia lost most of their defense but returns most of their offense. Mizzou can probably handle the offense but can WVa keep Mizzou below 17-20? I thought 13 was just a little too much and bet it.

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Tulsa -5.5 vs. San Jose State

 

San Jose State lost most of its secondary and Tulsa passes every down and scores points. SJSU also lost their terrific RB, Tulsa was horrible on defense last year but returns almost the whole team. I don't see SJSU keeping up even though they have recruited well. This game just doesn't really stack up well for them unless they've actually got some talent.

 

Line was 7 and has come down and I think Tulsa might win this by 10 at home.

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Western Michigan +7 vs. Northwestern

 

This is a case of having too much time on my hands and getting a little too cute. Western Michigan has recruited well and will likely have a similar level of talent to Northwestern and superior in some areas. Western Michigan can move the football and it will be hard for Northwestern's limited offense to beat this team by more than 7 points. Probably not that good a bet but I am going to make it.

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  • 2 weeks later...

No Guts, No Glory

 

I am a cowardly bettor so I do not often have the guts to bet underdogs, so I am trying my best not to bet these games even though I am tempted to just to prove what a smart guy I am. I consider both these games as more likely to win than not and am going to post them primarily to add reading material but also because I think they might be games to throw into a teaser/parlay which I know people like to bet. Also, if both these games win I am going to seem like a genius and if they lose I will also seem smart because I did not bet them. At this time, I am not betting the games and could easily hold off for a week but maybe not for 6.

 

Hawaii +42 vs. Michigan

 

Hawaii returns almost all of its defense. Michigan plays conservative football and will likely not run the score up too much on Hawaii as they will want to get their players off the field. Hawaii also has back most of its offense and is going to start throwing the ball every down. The Woolsey guy is an athletic QB that might do well in this system and has gained a lot of experience. In any case, Hawaii is probably going to score more points and if you figure they get to 17 Michigan has got to get to 60 to cover. Good chance Hawaii will be able to put a few on the board late and Michigan might not even score all that many against Hawaii anyway.

 

Rutgers +24 vs. Washington

 

Washington is going to be a good team but they are almost certainly overvalued coming into the year as everybody is giving them full credit when they were not all that great last year and will probably lose a game or two people do not expect this year. On the other hand, Rutgers is considered crap but was a team that was able to play Michigan State tight and has some good players coming back from last year. They also handled Army when the sharps were pounding Army right up until game time. They played a lot of freshmen in the secondary but those guys will probably be quite a bit better. Rutgers also gets back at DL that is supposed to be a really good player and did not play last year. Add in the fact that they have a new coach and they could play better just because of that because Flood was A1. I don't think 24 points is going to be all that easy for Washington to cover but I could be wrong.

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SMU -11 vs. North Texas

 

This is a statement game for SMU and the offense should be pretty high octane with another year of experience with Chad Morris as head coach. It is impossible to know what UNT is going to be but it does not figure to be very good. They are probably going to try to pass without the personnel and they are replacing quite a bit on defense. SMU is rising and North Texas is bottoming out. Morris is going to try to put one on them if he can. I would prefer less but will let bet fever make me take the 11 because I want to bet the game, and I think it is a pretty good bet.

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Kentucky -6.5 vs. Southern Mississippi

 

Sometimes you just have to know you are making a bad bet and hand your money over to the other guy because he has got the guts to bet the game down to this level. Bet fever is raging on this game. Just have to pull the trigger.

 

Kentucky has some talent and can move the ball. I think they should probably handle Southern Miss at home but will probably find out differently.

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Western Michigan-Northwestern under 52

 

Western Michigan has struggled against quality teams and dominated bad teams. It is doubtful that they can score more than 26 points on Northwestern and very doubtful that Northwestern can score more than 26 on Western Michigan. Hard to bet this after seeing it opened at 56 but still think it is worth a rollover bet.

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Notre Dame-Texas under 60

 

Talk is of Swoopes competing against the rich kid freshman for starting QB. That means the rich kid ain't all that apparently or more likely the coaches just propagandizing Swoopes to make him feel better. In any case, don't see Texas improving enough to score more than 30 on Notre Dame and the Texas D should be pretty good against a ND team with questionable WRs coming in. Worth a rollover bet.

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Meat-n-Taters Special

 

Tulane +17 vs. Wake Forest

 

Tulane could get shut out like Boston College against a tough Wake Forest run defense, but I'm making a bet on Willie Fritz and the man who drew my attention to this game which is Dave "The MeatMan" Scandaliato owner and proprietor of MeatandPotatoes.com and expert on all things Louisiana.

 

Tulane compares favorably to Army which gave Wake Forest a tough time and hopefully Fritz will have an improved D with lots of returning starters and will keep WF's pop gun offense below 30 while doing some damage with a new option offense..

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