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GreenDoberman
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Guest boatboatboat

No. My work tells me that Karl Anthony Towns will be guarded by a second string power forward tonight.. Then we look at the board.

OK so you don't use a model, you look at that game.

 

I understand that

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Guest boatboatboat

% of NFL games that have safties.

 

% of time team A and team B have a safety in a game

 

Team a and b average starting position of drives

 

Team a and b opponents averge starting potion of drives

 

Team a and b tackle for a loss on both offense and defense

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% of NFL games that have safties.

% of time team A and team B have a safety in a game

Team a and b average starting position of drives

Team a and b opponents averge starting potion of drives

Team a and b tackle for a loss on both offense and defense

Looking forward to your YES/NO leans and/or wagers on safeties next season .......before the lines adjust to market norm.

 

Thanks, your friend always,

 

-FH-

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Guest boatboatboat

Looking forward to your YES/NO leans and/or wagers on safeties next season .......before the lines adjust to market norm.

 

Thanks, your friend always,

 

-FH-

Ha

 

I wouldn't even know where to start

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% of NFL games that have safties.

 

% of time team A and team B have a safety in a game

 

Team a and b average starting position of drives

 

Team a and b opponents averge starting potion of drives

 

Team a and b tackle for a loss on both offense and defense

 

Even just using your first line, and you find it's 4%, you now have a model. Hopefully you can go from 4% to a moneyline.  That's all it is... and then fancier models just use fancier statistical methods... Does that demystify you now?

 

So now that you find the line should be -2000... what would you do? If you have a large BR, find as many outs as possible, slam every line better than -2000. If your BR is small, find as many outs as possible, slam the best or 1-2 best lines better than -2000. Congrats, you're a professional gambler that makes his money without staring at a screen but is always LINE SHOPPING.

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BBB 

Suppose a book offers a line on every NFL game for whether or not there will be a safety in the game. It's +1200/-1400. What data might you collect to figure out whether there is value in betting one side or the other?

 

As most pros know, the very first thing to look at in any match is to quantify the REVENGE factor.  From there you will add or deduct a certain number of cents based on how badly one team might want REVENGE over another.

 

This is especially important in the SAFETY wager because some teams are content to just force the other team to punt, while others motivated by REVENGE want to SACK the QB in the endzone for REVENGE.

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Well BBB that is a philosophical question that I will defer to professional roulette players. Next time in Vegas please stand around the roulette table and watch IWinYourMoney/Brock Landers/Mug types discuss this at length: some people believe a certain number is due because it hasn't come up in some time while others believe a number is hot because it has come up multiple times. These guys are real pros so again I would defer to them on this very complicated matter.

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Well BBB that is a philosophical question that I will defer to professional roulette players. Next time in Vegas please stand around the roulette table and watch IWinYourMoney/Brock Landers/Mug types discuss this at length: some people believe a certain number is due because it hasn't come up in some time while others believe a number is hot because it has come up multiple times. These guys are real pros so again I would defer to them on this very complicated matter.

 

This is actually very simple.

 

The odds of RED coming up six times in a row, for example, is less than 2%.  So look for a roulette wheel where one of the colors has come up five times in a row and make sure to bet the OTHER color for the sixth spin.

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In Nevada there are rules on both sides and if they want us out there is a procedure.

 

They don't go that route very often because they realize how lame it is to tell Gaming or the police

that they don't want someone gambling there because they don't suck as much as the average

player. Both entities get annoyed at those type of trespassing cases. In the case of sports books,

many of them are just renting the space so the ban can not even be an 86 from the premises.

They just tell the player they don't want your action but there's not a lot those places like William Hill

can do to enforce that. Tickets go as written and must be paid off so if you can get the bet in you will

get paid. 

 

I take it Boat thinks that if asked nicely to go away that you should just go away. If someone is in a position

to steal your money, like the post-up shops are, then that's what you do. Those shops get to have their cake 

and eat it too. In Nevada it's a little different. They can't pick and choose to that degree who they deal to

and part of the privilege of conducting business in a regulated state is that you have to play by the rules.

If they wanted to use the system to exclude players they could but they hate looking so weak. Unless it's

a legally binding banning I don't acknowledge it. They can cut players off apps but I'll still go to the window

until the consequences are such that it's just not worth it.

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