Guest boatboatboat Posted April 6, 2017 Report Share Posted April 6, 2017 Who is moving pinnacle to create those numbers.You from what I have read at thegamblingforum.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest boatboatboat Posted April 6, 2017 Report Share Posted April 6, 2017 No. My work tells me that Karl Anthony Towns will be guarded by a second string power forward tonight.. Then we look at the board.OK so you don't use a model, you look at that game. I understand that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dark Man Posted April 6, 2017 Report Share Posted April 6, 2017 OK so you don't use a model, you look at that game. I understand that No the injury is accounted for in the model Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest boatboatboat Posted April 6, 2017 Report Share Posted April 6, 2017 Geez Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FISHHEAD Posted April 6, 2017 Report Share Posted April 6, 2017 I really enjoy the Mirage app(s) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reno Marty Posted April 6, 2017 Report Share Posted April 6, 2017 BBB Suppose a book offers a line on every NFL game for whether or not there will be a safety in the game. It's +1200/-1400. What data might you collect to figure out whether there is value in betting one side or the other? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plommer Posted April 6, 2017 Report Share Posted April 6, 2017 BBB Suppose a book offers a line on every NFL game for whether or not there will be a safety in the game. It's +1200/-1400. What data might you collect to figure out whether there is value in betting one side or the other? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest boatboatboat Posted April 6, 2017 Report Share Posted April 6, 2017 % of NFL games that have safties. % of time team A and team B have a safety in a game Team a and b average starting position of drives Team a and b opponents averge starting potion of drives Team a and b tackle for a loss on both offense and defense Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dark Man Posted April 6, 2017 Report Share Posted April 6, 2017 Geez Boat there are so many advanced analytic sights out there that verifying the injury is harder than quantifying the damn thing https://swishanalytics.com/injury/nba-injury?r=index Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FISHHEAD Posted April 6, 2017 Report Share Posted April 6, 2017 % of NFL games that have safties.% of time team A and team B have a safety in a gameTeam a and b average starting position of drives Team a and b opponents averge starting potion of drives Team a and b tackle for a loss on both offense and defenseLooking forward to your YES/NO leans and/or wagers on safeties next season .......before the lines adjust to market norm. Thanks, your friend always, -FH- Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest boatboatboat Posted April 6, 2017 Report Share Posted April 6, 2017 Looking forward to your YES/NO leans and/or wagers on safeties next season .......before the lines adjust to market norm. Thanks, your friend always, -FH-Ha I wouldn't even know where to start Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FISHHEAD Posted April 6, 2017 Report Share Posted April 6, 2017 .....you already have and don't even know it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest boatboatboat Posted April 6, 2017 Report Share Posted April 6, 2017 That's scarey Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest boatboatboat Posted April 6, 2017 Report Share Posted April 6, 2017 Only model I ever made, I spilt pain't on carpet and glued the table cloth to my pants Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dark Man Posted April 6, 2017 Report Share Posted April 6, 2017 Only model I ever made, I spilt pain't on carpet and glued the table cloth to my pants I don't know how anyone speculates without a model. Doesn't have to be complicated to find an edge. I don't know anyone who's taken the time to find an edge wouldn't bet the best # available. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reno Marty Posted April 6, 2017 Report Share Posted April 6, 2017 % of NFL games that have safties. % of time team A and team B have a safety in a game Team a and b average starting position of drives Team a and b opponents averge starting potion of drives Team a and b tackle for a loss on both offense and defense Even just using your first line, and you find it's 4%, you now have a model. Hopefully you can go from 4% to a moneyline. That's all it is... and then fancier models just use fancier statistical methods... Does that demystify you now? So now that you find the line should be -2000... what would you do? If you have a large BR, find as many outs as possible, slam every line better than -2000. If your BR is small, find as many outs as possible, slam the best or 1-2 best lines better than -2000. Congrats, you're a professional gambler that makes his money without staring at a screen but is always LINE SHOPPING. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ronald Posted April 6, 2017 Report Share Posted April 6, 2017 BBB Suppose a book offers a line on every NFL game for whether or not there will be a safety in the game. It's +1200/-1400. What data might you collect to figure out whether there is value in betting one side or the other? As most pros know, the very first thing to look at in any match is to quantify the REVENGE factor. From there you will add or deduct a certain number of cents based on how badly one team might want REVENGE over another. This is especially important in the SAFETY wager because some teams are content to just force the other team to punt, while others motivated by REVENGE want to SACK the QB in the endzone for REVENGE. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest boatboatboat Posted April 6, 2017 Report Share Posted April 6, 2017 What factor is assigned for the "due" factor? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reno Marty Posted April 6, 2017 Report Share Posted April 6, 2017 Well BBB that is a philosophical question that I will defer to professional roulette players. Next time in Vegas please stand around the roulette table and watch IWinYourMoney/Brock Landers/Mug types discuss this at length: some people believe a certain number is due because it hasn't come up in some time while others believe a number is hot because it has come up multiple times. These guys are real pros so again I would defer to them on this very complicated matter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FISHHEAD Posted April 6, 2017 Report Share Posted April 6, 2017 .....in the above example, my thoughts are to stay with the HOT numbers rather than playing the DUE factor. Marty, do you have any pull at ROYALS Staduim??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ronald Posted April 6, 2017 Report Share Posted April 6, 2017 Well BBB that is a philosophical question that I will defer to professional roulette players. Next time in Vegas please stand around the roulette table and watch IWinYourMoney/Brock Landers/Mug types discuss this at length: some people believe a certain number is due because it hasn't come up in some time while others believe a number is hot because it has come up multiple times. These guys are real pros so again I would defer to them on this very complicated matter. This is actually very simple. The odds of RED coming up six times in a row, for example, is less than 2%. So look for a roulette wheel where one of the colors has come up five times in a row and make sure to bet the OTHER color for the sixth spin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest boatboatboat Posted April 6, 2017 Report Share Posted April 6, 2017 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0tsn2VGGfl4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reno Marty Posted April 6, 2017 Report Share Posted April 6, 2017 FH has used these theories much to his advantage over the years Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joeybagadonuts Posted April 6, 2017 Report Share Posted April 6, 2017 What factor is assigned for the "due" factor?Maybe BBB is The General!!! Pyle was a big fan of Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voodoo Posted April 6, 2017 Report Share Posted April 6, 2017 In Nevada there are rules on both sides and if they want us out there is a procedure. They don't go that route very often because they realize how lame it is to tell Gaming or the policethat they don't want someone gambling there because they don't suck as much as the averageplayer. Both entities get annoyed at those type of trespassing cases. In the case of sports books,many of them are just renting the space so the ban can not even be an 86 from the premises.They just tell the player they don't want your action but there's not a lot those places like William Hillcan do to enforce that. Tickets go as written and must be paid off so if you can get the bet in you willget paid. I take it Boat thinks that if asked nicely to go away that you should just go away. If someone is in a positionto steal your money, like the post-up shops are, then that's what you do. Those shops get to have their cake and eat it too. In Nevada it's a little different. They can't pick and choose to that degree who they deal toand part of the privilege of conducting business in a regulated state is that you have to play by the rules.If they wanted to use the system to exclude players they could but they hate looking so weak. Unless it'sa legally binding banning I don't acknowledge it. They can cut players off apps but I'll still go to the windowuntil the consequences are such that it's just not worth it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.