NFL GREEK INSIDER WEEK 17

[jimmythegreek]

Denver -14 over Oakland:

While a loss last Monday night to Cincinnati ended hopes of home field advantage throughout the playoffs, Denver (11-4) hopes Peyton Manning can bounce back from one of his worst performances in 3 seasons as a Bronco. Elected to the Pro Bowl for the 14th consecutive season, Manning struggled in a 37-28 defeat to the Bengals completing 28/44 for 311 yards with 2 TD and a season high 4 INT. The Broncos took a 28-27 lead at the end of the 3rd quarter but could not hold on as Cincy clinched at least a wildcard and will play tomorrow night in Pittsburgh for the AFC North title. Andy Dalton completed 17/26 for 146 yards with 2 TD and 1 INT. Jeremy Hill carried 22 times for 147 yards (6.7) including an 85 yard TD Run that put the Bengals on the board. Emmanuel Sanders caught 6 passes for 70 yards including both of Dalton's TD passes. Denver shouldn't have much trouble as a likely second seed, and will wrap up the 2014 regular season hosting the Oakland Raiders (3-12) who are coming off their 2nd win in 3 games. Unable to make the playoffs, Oakland prevented Buffalo from joining the postseason fray by edging the BIlls 26-24 last week. The Bills have now missed the playoffs 15 straight years. Derek Carr completed 17/34 for 214 yards and 2 TD. Latavius Murray and Darren McFadden combined for 140 yards on the ground, and the Raiders defense forced 4 Buffalo turnovers and allowed just 13 net rushing yards. Kyle Orton completed 32/49 for 329 yards with 3 TD and 2 INT.

 

Manning (374/560 4454 39 TD 15 INT) has not given retirement much thought and despite the recent troubles plans to keep on playing through at least next season. With Denver set for at least a first round bye, CJ Anderson (166-762 4.6 5 TD) will have to provide more positive carries to take some of the stress off Manning and an otherwise thin offensive line. If given the time, nobody has a more quicker and efficient release than Manning, who has a triple threat in the receiving core led by Demaryius Thomas (103-1504 11 TD) who caught 7 passes for 115 yards in week 16. Thomas joined an exclusive club. He joined Marvin Harrison and Jerry Rice as the only receivers in NFL history with three straight seasons of at least 1,400 yards and 10 touchdown catches. Sanders (95-1331 9 TD) has set career highs in 2014 but might be limited on Sunday recovering from a hip injury. Julius Thomas (43-489 12 TD) will probably also be limited due to an ankle injury, however the bye week could help the latter back up to speed in practice and for Denver's opening postseason game with a fully healthy receiving core.

 

Carr (330/563 3112 20 TD 11 INT) who has been one of the few bright spots for Oakland has started every game thus far in his rookie campaign. He should be good to go on Sunday despite not practicing much earlier in the week due to an illness. James Jones (71-649 6 TD) has also put up some impressive numbers despite being hampered by injuries this season. Andre Holmes (45-683 4 TD) has been playing with a shoulder injury and hopes to get one final chance to impress. Darren McFadden (151-521 3.5 2 TD) carried 9 times for 54 yards (6.0) against Buffalo, but otherwise it has been an inconsistent campaign for the 7 year vet. The future for this ground game is in Murray (72-387 5.4 2 TD), who should be able to help Carr get more production and protection in the offense gearing towards next season. Murray and McFadden have rushed for all 4 Raider TD's this season, as Oakland is dead last averaging just 78 yards on the ground per contest.

 

The Raiders defense may catch a struggling Peyton Manning, though the future Hall Of Famer could just as easily have a field day against a simply bad defense as a tune up for the postseason. The Raiders have already proven capable of picking off Manning. Defensive end Justin Tuck and cornerback D.J. Hayden each have an interception in the Week 10 showdown against the Broncos. Denver did not have a solid showing against the run where they are normally up to the task almost every week. After Hill's 85 yard scoring run Denver limited Cincinnati to just 3 yards per carry the rest of the way. The Broncos rank 3rd in the league in total defense including giving up just 81 yards on the ground, good for second overall.

 

While the offense looked back to it's aggressive ways Denver needs to cut the sloppiness and have more of a fluid pattern in their offense, which averages 29 points and 400 yards per contest. Manning will almost certainly lean on Anderson who sets up the passing game nicely with gains early and often in potential scoring possessions. Undefeated at home, you'd almost expect Fox and company to stay focused even against an Oakland team who despite looking much improved as of late don't have much to play for. Carr has been better than average this season, however with a young, erratic running game and no defense to fall back on. the Broncos should reign supreme.

[jimmythegreek]

Indianapolis -6 over Tennessee (bought half):

After seeing a 4 game losing streak snapped in dominating fashion last week at the hands of the NFC East Champion Dallas Cowboys, Indianapolis (10-5) didn't seem to have much to play for anyway with the AFC South already wrapped up. Dallas thwarted Indianapolis 42-7 last week at AT&T Stadium, giving the Colts a likely 3 seed and a first round host to a wildcard next week. Tony Romo completed 18/20 for 218 yards and 4 TD, eventually pulled early in the 4th quarter with the outcome well in hand. DeMarco Murray, playing with a fractured bone in his left hand, ran for 58 yards on 22 carries (2.6) and a TD. 4 different receivers each caught TD passes, and the Dallas defense held Indy to just one net yard rushing, and 236 overall. Andrew Luck completed 15/22 for just 109 yards and 2 INT. He was replaced by Matt Hasselbeck, who was 15/21 for 126 and a TD to Zurlon Tipton with 10:12 remaining. The Colts continue on the road finishing up at Tennessee (2-13) who has lost 9 straight and is very much in the running for the #1 draft pick. Last Thursday, the Titans lost to Jacksonville 21-13 at EverBank Field. Blake Bortles completed 13/26 for 115 yards and a TD, while Jordan Todman and Toby Gerhart each ran for a score as the Jaguars gained 177 total yards on the ground. Tennessee, who ranks both 29th in the league on both sides of the ball, saw Charlie Whitehurst complete 24/35 for 287 yards and a TD, but the Titans blew a 10-7 halftime lead and were outscored 14-3 in the second half.

 

Luck (370/600 4601 38 TD 16 INT) leads the top ranked passing game into a venue with the worst record in the league. Averaging 306 passing yards per game, Luck failed to throw a TD pass for the first time this season. Head coach Chuck Pagano would expect Luck to end the regular season on a high note, however at the same time forbid risk of injury. Top target TY Hilton (82-1435 7 TD) was upgraded to probable this evening and could also see limited action with a hamstring injury. Reggie Wayne (62-688 2 TD) says he will have surgery after the season on his partially torn triceps. That leaves Colby Fleener (46-718 6 TD) as a likely playmaker for the season finale and into the postseason. The Colts rushing game will have to step up given it's been a rough campaign for Trent Richardson (153-508 3.3 3 TD) and Ahmad Bradshaw who is on season ending IR. Dan Herron (68-316 4.6 1 TD) has shown flashes at times and Luck (63-268 4.3 3 TD) has shown just like his days at Stanford that he's not afraid to take a lick with his legs in the open field.

 

Not much has gone right in the Music City this season, and with a season ending injury to Jake Locker, it seems Charlie Whitehurst (93/157 1254 6 TD 2 INT) will get the start in the finale with Zach Mettenberger (107/179 1412 8 TD 7 INT) not expected to play. Mettenberger has suffered several shoulder injuries this season, the latest coming 3 weeks ago in a loss to the Giants. Delanie Walker (56-847 4 TD) was targeted 10 times in the loss to the Jaguars but finished with just 27 yards on 4 catches. Kendall Wright (55-706 5 TD) is playing through a broken hand and still managed to catch 5 passes for 73 yards. With very little on the line except for perhaps pride and a top ranked pick, Tennessee will look for decent games from Bishop Sankey (148-551 3.7 2 TD) and Shonn Greene (83-298 3.6 2 TD) to keep that explosive Colts passing offense off the field not to mention protection for Whitehurst.

 

As long as the Colts play everybody, this game should result in a blowout. The Titans have no reason to show up, as a win just hurts their draft position. And even if the Titans were interested, they can't hang with the Colts, a team that's much better on both sides of the ball. Expect the Colts to merely duplicate their 41-17 victory in the last meeting this season.

[jimmythegreek]

Houston -9.5 over Jacksonville:

Believe it or not, Houston (8-7) still has a chance, albeit a slim one, to make the postseason. While they need to first win their season finale against Jacksonville, they are also going to need wins by Kansas City and Cleveland to lock up the last wildcard spot. Last week Houston defeated Baltimore 25-13 to keep their dim hopes alive. With three quarterbacks hurt, the Texans looked to Case Keenum (20/42 185 1 INT), who got his first win in 9 NFL starts. Arian Foster ran for 96 yards on 25 carries (3.8) and threw a 5 yard TD pass on an option to CJ Fiedorowicz. that gave Houston a 16-0 halftime lead. The Texans defense limited Baltimore to just 33 rushing yards and 228 overall. Joe Flacco completed just 21/50 for 195 yards with 2 TD and 3 INT. Houston's defense stifled the Ravens in the first half, allowing just 31 yards to set a franchise best for a half. The previous low was 41 yards gained by San Diego in the second half in 2007.

 

Keenum will get the start once again as Ryan Fitzpatrick (200/318 2525 17 TD 8 INT) was placed on IR with a broken leg. Top targets DeAndre Hopkins (74-1205 6 TD) and Andre Johnson (75-802 2 TD) will try to have more of an impact in a passing game that has been inconsistent all season long averaging just 207 yards through the air which is good for 26th overall. Foster (255-1223 4.8 8 TD) could have another big game against the Jaguars rushing defense that yields 128 yards which is 27th overall. Meanwhile, it looks like Jacksonville, the last team to win a regular season game, will miss out on a #1 pick given their much improved play of late. Bortles (266/442 2791 11 TD 17 INT) continues to avoid making mistakes turning potential turnovers into a more cleaner offense. His accuracy has also improved over recent weeks thanks to a balanced receiving core featuring Allen Hurns (49-662 6 TD) who had 6 catches for 70 yards in the win over Tennessee. With Allen Robinson on IR, Cecil Shorts (48-510 1 TD) also stepped up his game catching 6 passes for 76 yards. Marqise Lee (35-414 1 TD) had 4 receptions for 65 yards. Denard Robinson (135-582 4.3 4 TD) sprained his foot and was placed on IR this week, so Bortles (53-358 6.8) may have to make plays on his own with his feet given the running game is quite light. Expect Gerhart and Todman to get more carries to balance out the offense against Houston's 10th rated rushing defense allowing only 104 yards per contest.

 

The secondary also had a big game. Cornerback Kareem Jackson had two picks off Flacco, while A.J. Bouye also had one. The Texans’ secondary should have a big day going against the Jags’ rookie quarterback Bortles, who has a league-leading 17 interceptions. JJ Watt ranks second in sacks, first in tackles for loss, first among defensive lineman in passes defended and has scored five touchdowns. Hopefully the Texans offense will do better than their 1-for-7 mark in the red zone last week against Baltimore or the 289 total yards they put up—their second-lowest total of the season—against Indianapolis the week before. But even if they don't, their defense, led by J.J. Watt, can pick up the slack.

[jimmythegreek]

also playing Cleveland/Baltimore over 39

 

Best of luck to all in week 17!

 

YTD 32-30-2 .516

[KingRevolver]

Thank you and best of luck, Jimmy.