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Dave "The MeatMan" Scandaliato's 2017 NBA ATS Plays


The Meatman
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 Nobody knows Tulane football like the Scandaliatos...

I am going to get/ask one(1) of the sportsbooks in Las Vegas to put a season win total up on the Tulane Green Wave for the 2017 season.

 

The Wave wins NO LESS than seven(7) games in 2017.

 

I am hoping for an over / under of five(5).

 

 

Dave "The MeatMan" Scandaliato

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I am going to be OK.

 

Only posting plays in the picks forum where "supposedly" no bashing is allowed.

 

We shall see said the blind man.

 

 

Dave "The MeatMan" Scandaliato

I am glad the Scandaliatos have changed their position on subforums. That place needs a big hitter like yourself and I am sure they will put a bug zapper in there for the flies.

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dave why did you buy the 1/2 point to 7?

 

even though 7 is the most common margin of victory in the nba, a 7 point favorite only wins by exactly 7 about 3.8% of the time, which doesn't offset the juice from -110 to -120

 

let's say it happens 4% and you're going to win the bet 54% of the time at -6.5

 

at -6.5 over 100 bets of $100 each you win 54% (5400) and lose 46% (5060) giving you a profit of 340

 

now at -7 over 100 bets, 4% push, you win 51.8% (5180) and lose 44.2% (5304) giving you a loss of 124

 

all you did by buying that 1/2 point is turn an expected profit into an expected loss... assuming you can hit 54%... even if you can hit 70% you eat into expected profits

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