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Dave "The MeatMan" Scandaliato's 2017 NBA ATS Plays


The Meatman
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dave why did you buy the 1/2 point to 7?

 

even though 7 is the most common margin of victory in the nba, a 7 point favorite only wins by exactly 7 about 3.8% of the time, which doesn't offset the juice from -110 to -120

 

let's say it happens 4% and you're going to win the bet 54% of the time at -6.5

 

at -6.5 over 100 bets of $100 each you win 54% (5400) and lose 46% (5060) giving you a profit of 340

 

now at -7 over 100 bets, 4% push, you win 51.8% (5180) and lose 44.2% (5304) giving you a loss of 124

 

all you did by buying that 1/2 point is turn an expected profit into an expected loss... assuming you can hit 54%... even if you can hit 70% you eat into expected profits

This Mikey guy is a comedian.

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dave why did you buy the 1/2 point to 7?

 

even though 7 is the most common margin of victory in the nba, a 7 point favorite only wins by exactly 7 about 3.8% of the time, which doesn't offset the juice from -110 to -120

 

let's say it happens 4% and you're going to win the bet 54% of the time at -6.5

 

at -6.5 over 100 bets of $100 each you win 54% (5400) and lose 46% (5060) giving you a profit of 340

 

now at -7 over 100 bets, 4% push, you win 51.8% (5180) and lose 44.2% (5304) giving you a loss of 124

 

all you did by buying that 1/2 point is turn an expected profit into an expected loss... assuming you can hit 54%... even if you can hit 70% you eat into expected profits

He did not bet -7. He bet +7.

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Guest boatboatboat

Meatfuck swallowed his pride (swallowing is his forte) and posted in the picks forum. Go figure.

He gets fucked with there the person is banned from the forum

 

Any questions?

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Mike do you expect a reasonable answer from the meathead?

the man of small meat will insist that his very selective use of the ol' half point prevails at twice the statistical probability on accounta he only uses it very selectively in very select situations and if you had selectively paid attention during his past several years of veiled tout threads you would not even consider asking such questions

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Kinger did you delete my Jew post? 

 

Or was it Lego head? 

 

Yanks woulda never done me like that.  Yanks is down with the Jews. 

 

Not sure what post you're referring to... 

 

Off-topic:  Did you get that dash cam yet, pal?  I can't remember if you had one already or not.  I'm finally going to get around to getting one so I can make those videos.

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