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Stephen Nover | CBB Sides - Friday, Mar 24 2017 9:35PM
876 Kentucky 1.0(-110) Sportsbook.ag vs 875 UCLA triple-dime bet 


Analysis: Youth will be served here and I side with Kentucky's talent over UCLA. Lonzo Ball has had to face a lot of distractions due in large part to his big-mouthed dad. Ball is a great talent, but Kentucky also has great talent in its backcourt - and more depth there. 




Much is being mentioned about the Bruins beating the Wildcats, 97-92, at Rupp Arena back in early December. That was an impressive victory for UCLA. It ended the Wildcats' 42-game home win streak.




The Bruins also shot 53 percent from the floor while the Wildcats made just 41 percent of their field goals, which was a season-low at the time. 




Kentucky isn't going to shoot that bad again and the Bru …ins aren't going to be that hot again. The Wildcats have been playing outstanding defense holding eight of their last nine opponents to 70 or less points. Opponents have shot under 40 percent during this span against Kentucky. 




It's a big advantage for the Wildcats - even though they lost - to have played UCLA because now they are fully aware of how fast the Bruins' ball movement is. They won't be taken by surprise not to mention they have a huge revenge factor. 




The Wildcats are the more physical team. They've yet to play a strong game in the Tournament so far. I say that comes here.
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Robert Ferringo MLB Future picks

8-Unit Play. Los Angeles Dodgers 'Under' 94.5 Wins

This one jumped right out at me and I think that this number is obviously high. When I look at the Dodgers roster I had this number parked right around 89.5. So to catch it basically in the mid-90's - and just two wins off of the Cubs' season win total! - is ridiculous. I feel like a big part of the story for this line is the fact that, given Los Angeles' proximity to Las Vegas, the books know they have to shade the lines because of all the 'local' money they are going to take. Add on the fact that the Dodgers are right there with the Yankees, Cubs and Red Sox as THE public teams in the Majors and it all adds up to an inflated line that is waiting for sharp action.

The Dodgers have won 95 or more games exactly one time this century and exactly one time in the last 30 years. Is this the best Dodgers team in the past 30 years? Is this the weakest that the West has been in 30 years? I don't think so. Over the past four years the Dodgers haven't topped 94 wins and this team doesn't strike me as the type that is suddenly going to bust out and throw 98 wins on the board. They don't play with the urgency of teams like the Nationals, Cubs and Giants. And, frankly, while I like a lot of the guys on their team I still can't help but think that they are overrated. For instance, beyond Clayton Kershaw who do you love? Is Rich Hill going to have another 2.12 ERA season? What can you expect from Urias and Wood? The same can really be said about the lineup as well. Adrian Gonzalez is a hero and Justin Turner is this team's heart. But who else on this roster can you not do without?

Further, I think Arizona is definitely going to be improved. Colorado is making some noise about being a contender. And I have a feeling the Giants will break their odd-number-year curse. So this is going to be a competitive division. And it has been over seven years since someone has won the West with more than 94 wins. In fact, in the last 13 years the West winner has had 95 wins just one time. Again, I just don't think that the Dodgers are going to run away with this division. I think that this number is optimistic and I think that Los Angeles falls short. I have them between 88-91 wins, but none of my scenarios have them in that 96-98-win range that would really put them safely past this number.

5-Unit Play. Seattle Mariners 'Under' 85.5 Wins (+100)

The Mariners, as a franchise, have never been able to handle success. And outside of a four-year run from 2000-2003 they are notorious for falling off a cliff after promising seasons. In 1991 they won 83 games and followed up with 64. In 1993 they won 82 games and followed up with a below .500 season before the strike. In 1997 they won 90 games and then came back with 76. After winning 93 games in 2003 they fell off by 30 wins to just 63. After their 88-win 2007 they came back with 61 victories. After 2009's season of 85 wins they won just 61 games again. And even after their solid 2014 (87 wins) they followed that up with just 76 victories in 2015. This is what they do. And this is a franchise with just 12 seasons above .500 in their 40-year existence. I am expecting them to do exactly the same thing here.

The fact of the matter is that Seattle's three best players, Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz and Felix Hernandez, are all getting older and should be set to see a slight dip in performance after some big seasons in 2016. And even if those three are fine I don't see a ton of upside wandering around. Seattle isn't stacked with highly touted youngsters and they don't have a lot of proven veterans stacking the clubhouse. It really is just a group of guys. A bunch of pretty good guys that are capable of playing some pretty good baseball. But that doesn't make them contenders.

I think Seattle made a real solid push at the postseason last year. And they came up short. I don't think that they improved on last year's 86-win team this offseason. And I don't think that their star players, who are seeing declining production at these stages of their careers, are capable of repeating what they did last year. I also think Seattle is still clearly the third-best team in this division. And the No. 3 team in the West isn't going to threaten 90 wins. That just isn't going to happen. I think this team will end up close to this number. But I think that their ceiling is 82 wins and their floor is somewhere around 76. Nowhere in that window is 86 or 87 wins and a failure to cash this ticket. So play the Mariners 'under'.

3-Unit Play. Baltimore Orioles 'Over' 80.5 Wins

Last year we cashed in our 8-Unit Futures Play on the Orioles easily going over 78.0 wins, winning 89 games and making it into the Wild Card game. Why not go back to the well? The Orioles have beaten their season win total four of the last five years and have finished over .500 in five straight seasons. This year they have the same core group of guys so why would the results be any different? Baltimore has two proven cornerstone guys in Manny Machado and Adam Jones. And they have two of the best sluggers in the game in Chris Davis and Mark Trumbo. Combine that with a rock solid bullpen and a starting rotation that is just better than average (same as it has been the past five seasons). They play great defense, have a fantastic manager, and they are perpetually underrated because they are in the same division as the Red Sox and Yankees. This is still one of the best teams in the American League. They aren't going to win 89 games again. (Unless they latch on to some of the discarded starters that will be thrown around at the trade deadline.) But they will be in the mix. Again, let's just keep cashing with these guys.

2-Unit Play. Cincinnati Reds 'Under' 70.5 Wins

The Reds played .500 ball the second half of last year. But I think that has given a bit of false hope going into this season. They played that well and still only won 68 games and I don't think that they are any better going into this year. Add in the fact that they are in a stacked division - their best hope is fourth place behind the Cubs, Cardinals and Pirates - and things are going to get tougher before they get easier. Yes, they still have Joey Votto. But that is it. I mean, that is really, really it. The rest of the roster reads like a Triple-A lineup. And the pitching rotation? Let's put it this way: Scott Feldman is their Opening Day starter. Scott Feldman. The rest of the rotation is filled in by Brandon Finnegan and a bunch of losers. And the bullpen was one of the worst in baseball last year - and hasn't gotten much better. This is a team that really could threaten to lose 100 games. I have them losing at least 95. These guys stink and we don't need to make it more complicated than that.

2-Unti Play. Oakland Athletics 'Over' 73.5 Wins

I have been banging the drum against the A's for the past several years. Their talent level has dried up and they've made one mistake after another in trades and free agent signings. However, I think that this team is going to be a moderate surprise in the West this year. I think there are going to be some wins up for grabs in that division this year. Texas won't sustain its absurd record in one-run games. The Angels aren't nearly as good as their season win total suggests and I don't see them hitting .500. I'm not high on Seattle, obviously. So that leaves the A's. Again, this team isn't going to compete for the division title or anything. But I think they can hit 75 or 76 wins this year. And the main reason is pedigree. The A's have had plenty of ups and downs throughout their history. But over the last 35 years they have only failed to hit 74 wins six times. That's a hell of a track record. And when you consider that two of those instances happened in the past two years I think they are due for a regression back to their historical norm. They have some solid young talent. And as recently as 2012-2014 this was a playoff team, so success isn't that foreign to this front office. This team is very similar to last year's, just with a year's more seasoning. And the reality is that Oakland was 66-83 late in the season before a 3-10 finish made their record look a bit worse than it could've been. Had they simply played .500 ball during those final throwaway games they would've been right around this number.

2-Unit Play. Philadelphia Phillies 'Over' 72.5 Wins (-125)

I think the Phillies are going to be another team with some hidden value. This team is in a full-bore rebuild. But they have cleared away most of the dead wood over the last two years and last year were able to give most of their youngsters some quality time. That should pay some dividends this season. The Phillies always have fight in them. And this year they have some really good young pitching to boot. The East isn't exactly stacked, with the Braves still rebuilding and the Marlins with paper-thin depth. I think the Phillies young arms will help get them over this low bar.

1-Unit Play. Take Atlanta Braves 'Over' 73.5 Wins

1-Unit Play. Take Detroit Tigers 'Under' 83.5 Wins

2-Unit Play. Take L.A. Angels 'Under' 79.5 Wins

1-Unit Play. Take Cleveland Indians 'Under' 93.0 Wins

Carpe diem. Good luck.
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Trace Adams

Friday's Selection ...

For Friday, Raise The Bar 1500♦ is UCLA against Kentucky. At 7:45 am eastern time, the Bruins are -1 point favorites both in Vegas and offshore.


It's the Battle of the Bluebloods this Friday night in Memphis as # 2 seed Kentucky takes on the # 3 seed UCLA in a South Regional Semifinal, and its the matchup everyone has been waiting for since the brackets were announced.


No doubt the Wildcats 13-game winning streak demands attention and respect, but remember that Kentucky was also on a home court 42-game winning streak when the Bruins came into Lexington back in December and ended it with a 97-92 as the +11 point underdog!


Obviously a lot of time has gone by since their December meeting, but also consider that it marked the second year in a row Steve Alford's team has had UK's number, as the Bruins sans Lonzo Ball defeated the Wildcats, 87-77 in December of 2015 in Westwood.


UCLA can and will do it again, as they showed me a little something by getting past a very tricky foe in Cincinnati last Sunday, 69-57.


The Bruins still lead the nation in scoring, and they have also been very unselfish with the round-ball, as evidenced by their 47 tournament assists, and just 9 turnovers.


The Wildcats benefitted from a kind whistle in their slugfest with Wichita State last weekend, as they eked-out a 63-60 win over the Wheat Shockers.


This one lives up to its billing as an "instant classic", but it is UCLA that is still standing when the smoke clears.
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Indian Cowboy

4-Unit Play. #878. Take North Carolina -7.5 over Butler (Friday @ 7:05pm est) 
We really like our 7-Unit NBA Selection on the docket today and hope you join us as we also have a 3u selection tacked on as well and could very well go 2-0 for +$1000. In fact, we suggest you join for the entire NBA Season as we are sitting at +$4100 right now and we think we could post +$10,000 by seasons' end. Decent 4-unit winner on the Xavier Under yesterday and we look for a similar winner today behind North Carolina to get it done here over Butler despite the public liking the points with the 4 seed. But, UNC is the 1 seed here and note that there was a lot of heat that UNC was given the #1 Seed but those who know college basketball know how good UNC team is. And, note that Butler has beat UNC both times they have ever played and this is a huge opportunity to get the Butler chip off their shoulder. This team will undoubtedly get up for Butler, is more than irritated that Butler has beat them twice as they lost by 11 in 2012 and lost by 8 in 2014. This is a game that Roy Williams wants to win badly. And, we would even think about stepping out on this selection except for the fact that we want to respect what Butler has done this year including beating Villanova. But, per this game, for as good as Butler is they are outisde the top 240 in offensive rebounding and UNC is the #1 offensive rebounding team in the nation. North Carolina is a top 20 defense and top 10 offense and Butler looks like they have to score here on their first possesion and if they don't they will find it difficult to score again. They need to be highly efficient and arguably too highly efficient. Plus, UNC remembers losing in the Championship last year and this team is more than motivated this year to get it done and to finish the job.
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