Formula 1 Thread

[LCD]

Probably George and Yisman are asleep but what a Q3.  Rain, Ricciadro, red flag and laps in the 1:22s.

[LCD]

Just using oddschecker because it's the middle of the night and more places don't have them up yet:

 

Hamilton 1/3

Vettlel 10/3

Bottas 10/1

 

Looks like it's probably Hamilton at a terrible price.  Would say it's worthwhile to bet on Vettel and Bottas (even though B had fuck ups on both laps in Q3) based on:

 

randomness

the speed at which these cars move since it's going to be so fast that the drivers will be physically wrecked by the end

that Mercedes always dials it in for qualifying

that Hamilton's only weakness is starts and it's full manual and Mercedes have finger holes in their clutch!

there is a good chance of a safety car (there were four in 2006 when Alonso won) and there will likely be one or more with the speed and unfamiliarity

 

I would just take a flyer on V and B.  And not Verstappen since the Red Bull looks slow and Daniel R fucked up.  And Kimi looks out of it but he's won this twice and at 20-1 and with everything else and the further randomness of shit like the weather and the unknown of full race pace and because Kimi is a weirdo who can be brilliant, why the fuck not..

[Bimmercando]

18 year old (orig) Montreal, Quebec Lance Stroll begins his F1 career.

 

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/more-sports/canadian-rookie-lance-stroll-set-for-formula-one-debut/article34383451/ 

[LCD]

Stroll is just going to try to keep his head above water.

 

Hamilton supposedly was practicing his starts and there was a lot of wheel spin. There's a chance Vettel beats him to the first corner. And then the hope would be that these new cars have a difficult time overtaking though that's an unknown. Wait for Vettel line to climb. He's now +378 at Bookmaker. Not good enough probably giving up 3/10 of a second a lap.

[tripp]

LCD i put a grand on Lewis Hamilton to win drivers championship this year...first F1 bet ive ever made but my buddy told me hes the best

 

I know enough to know the champ from last year (although my buddy said hamilton was still the best drivers last year just had car troubles too many times) retired. Any big guys i should worry about for this year that could take the crown from the brit?

[Bimmercando]

Stroll is just going to try to keep his head above water.

 

Hamilton supposedly was practicing his starts and there was a lot of wheel spin. There's a chance Vettel beats him to the first corner. And then the hope would be that these new cars have a difficult time overtaking though that's an unknown. Wait for Vettel line to climb. He's now +378 at Bookmaker. Not good enough probably giving up 3/10 of a second a lap.

 

 

LS team likely has a goal for him just to finish the race without wrecking the car

[LCD]

LS team likely has a goal for him just to finish the race without wrecking the car

Massa is -465 versus him in the head to head at Bookmaker.

[trytrytry]

what are some good value for 1  head to head matchups later.  find a unit or two here.  was thinking of following and learning Formula 1 racing and racing history seriously this year.

[LCD]

It's a complete clusterfuck because of the new cars which are crazy fast in cornering (over 20 mph faster in certain parts of this course than last year) with the drivers pulling up to 8 Gs. One of the steadiest drivers Ricciardo lost it in Q3 last night. There's a massive amount of downforce and slicks but when the a car gets loose and goes off it goes completely off instantly. I would wait for things to shake out Try or just wait and pounce in wet weather chaos.

 

Will shut it down at -20 units.

 

Vettel at +350 1 unit using the shittier line at 5D

Bottas +1000 .5 units

Kimi +2000 .25 units

 

Hamilton has won pole 5 times and won the race only twice. Shit can happen. These cars can cause chaos. Hopefully Vettel gets the better start and can hold him off or there's safety cars.

 

If Hamilton crushes then will probably skip China and wait for Bahrain which will be more likely to favor Ferrari.

[LCD]

LCD i put a grand on Lewis Hamilton to win drivers championship this year...first F1 bet ive ever made but my buddy told me hes the best

 

I know enough to know the champ from last year (although my buddy said hamilton was still the best drivers last year just had car troubles too many times) retired. Any big guys i should worry about for this year that could take the crown from the brit?

Ah Tripp, I just saw this. Traveling so I'm posting from my phone which makes me miss things.

 

Hamilton is possibly the best driver. Vettel is as good and now he has a car that is competitive with Mercedes. Alonso is good but in a terrible car and you have the two Red Bull drivers in a car that is slow right now.

 

What did you get Hamilton at. Hamilton is going to be quicker than Bottas so it's a question of how fast is the Ferrari. In Formula 1 there's an overreaction to everything so the odds are off. Hamilton also gets the English money love. I made that post in my other Formula 1 thread about how statistically close Rosberg and Hamilton were and Hamilton gets/got all the love.

 

Bottas catching Hamilton was possibly because the engine on Hamiltons car was turned down once he couldn't win but that's also could be bullshit.

 

Hamilton will probably win even with yesterday's setback but Ferrari finally has a good car.

[LCD]

Again will shut it down at -20.

 

+2.75 so far.

 

On to China in two weeks.

[LCD]

Random, sloppy observations with the idea that everything (because of the money involved is massively spun) and that everyone (including the people betting) are fanboyish:

 

1. Red Bull is slow right now but still has the best aerodynamicist (Adrian Newey).

2. Red Bull and Mercedes were affected by the suspension changes.

3. The first two tracks (Australia and China) favor front reliant cars like Mercedes.

4. China will be colder and that will favor Mercedes.

5. Hamilton sounded panicky about calling to come in early which might or might not have cost him the race (early not panicky being the issue because Hamilton is awesome).

6. Hamilton came in a lot earlier than Bottas.

7. Bottas was as fast at the end as Hamilton was at the beginning.  Bottas was "outclassed", Hamilton shut it down.  Both being probably bullshit.

8. The two fastest laps were put up at the very end by the 3rd and 4th placed drivers (Bottas and Kimi).

9. You can't really pass other cars.  Or Mercedes can't I guess.

10. Bottas was shit on by some people by being outclassed but just follow what Lauda says.  This is an important step to get rid of team orders favoring the crybaby. Bottas will probably be good to bet on later.

11. Mercedes' extreme engine mode still gives them an advantage in qualifying.

12. Hamilton is able to bounce back and deliver.

13. Hamilton should be able to win pole.

 

Bet Victor has Hamilton at 1:1 to win pole position.  Hopefully that price will be widely available.

 

If I can get 1:1 at some place I can bet then 2 units on Hamilton to win pole position in China. Will update later.

[LCD]

Fuck it. Square it up.

 

Chinese Grand Prix

Hamilton to win Pole Position -119

2 units

 

Extreme Engine Mode Activate

[LCD]

Vettel faster in Practice 3 by around a 1/2 second over the Mercedes.

[LCD]

+4.75 units

 

Will wait now on the rain.

[LCD]

It's going to rain.  I had made a small bet on Hamilton with George but for this thread, the wet weather tires are unproven and degrade super quick.  I don't want to start degening so soon but question marks about stuff with chaos if it rains.

 

Sebastian Vettel to win Chinese Grand Prix +180 = 1 unit

Valterri Bottas to win Chinese Grand Prix +1275 = .25 unit

Max Verstappen to win Chinese Grand Prix +9000 = .10 unit

Field to win Chinese Grand Prix +20000 = .10 unit

 

Sebastian Vettel fastest lap in race +250 = .5 unit

Valtteri Bottas fastest lap in race +601 = .25 unit

Max Verstappen fastest lap in race +985 = .25 unit

Field fastest lap in race +3325 = .10 unit

 

2.55 units total.  Hopefully it goes bananas.

[LCD]

At one point i thought i was golden when Verstsppen went from 17th to third in like three laps. If it had started to rain at any point after the start he could have made it. Virtual safety car not as good as safety car.

 

+2.2 units. Bahrain in seven days.

[LCD]

Bahrain Grand Prix

Lewis Hamilton to win pole -163 1 unit

Sebastian Vettel to win race +187 1 unit

[LCD]

Hamilton ran wide at the end to lose the pole to Bottas.

Vettel won.

 

It looks like it's going to be just Vettel and Hamilton with randomness, 5 second penalties, virtual safety cars and teams interfering.  Just blows.  Might just wait for rain and pile money on Verstappen who is a freak.

 

+2.44

[tripp]

looks like it will be a fun battle between those two all year though LCD. Also only been following a little over a year but interesting the different dynamics this year with Hamilton and his teammate (not Bottas). Seems like he is much more friendly and genunie with Bottas as opposed to Rosberg last year. Is that just becuase Bottas is not really a threat or were there lots of personal issues between the two last year?

 

Either way like seeing Bottas move out of the way for my guy Hamilton

[LCD]

I'll find the link to the article I posted in my earlier Formula 1 thread that shows that the difference between Hamilton and Rosberg was miniscule.  Hamilton always has problems with people who are as talented or almost as talented.  There was standard Hamilton bullshit in this race like holding up Ricciardo (at least he got penalized).  The bigger thing was Merc (and specifically Bottas) were having problems with tire pressure.  When Bottas came in he was in the lead and should have had the choice of tires and then could have picked the softs forcing Hamilton to cover with super softs but Mercedes decided for Bottas and he was fucked.  Then Hamilton passes Bottas (under orders which is another bullshit thing which they'll lie about) and is applauded for driving down Vettel who was just managing his car and try to have it last till the end of the race.  The race wasn't as close as it looks but everyone came away with the idea that Mercedes is faster than Ferrari.

 

Ricciardo said this week that Red Bull won't be able to win a race until August.

 

You're in good shape for your bet.  Mercedes is a better run outfit than Ferrari.  They will develop their car faster.  Bottas apparently will protect Hamilton unlike Rosberg.  I don't even like Vettel but will root for him because Hamilton is such a douche (not sure why he has the most committed fan boys in Formula 1).

 

Russia will probably favor Mercedes.  Spain Ferrari.  Hamilton fucked up the start.  Kimi is in the weeds but the car is being set up for Vettel not him.

 

Like I said will stay up all night and wait for rain and probably dump money on Verstappen.  Just might have to wait a while.

[tripp]

I'll find the link to the article I posted in my earlier Formula 1 thread that shows that the difference between Hamilton and Rosberg was miniscule.  Hamilton always has problems with people who are as talented or almost as talented.  There was standard Hamilton bullshit in this race like holding up Ricciardo (at least he got penalized).  The bigger thing was Merc (and specifically Bottas) were having problems with tire pressure.  When Bottas came in he was in the lead and should have had the choice of tires and then could have picked the softs forcing Hamilton to cover with super softs but Mercedes decided for Bottas and he was fucked.  Then Hamilton passes Bottas (under orders which is another bullshit thing which they'll lie about) and is applauded for driving down Vettel who was just managing his car and try to have it last till the end of the race.  The race wasn't as close as it looks but everyone came away with the idea that Mercedes is faster than Ferrari.

 

Ricciardo said this week that Red Bull won't be able to win a race until August.

 

You're in good shape for your bet.  Mercedes is a better run outfit than Ferrari.  They will develop their car faster.  Bottas apparently will protect Hamilton unlike Rosberg.  I don't even like Vettel but will root for him because Hamilton is such a douche (not sure why he has the most committed fan boys in Formula 1).

 

Russia will probably favor Mercedes.  Spain Ferrari.  Hamilton fucked up the start.  Kimi is in the weeds but the car is being set up for Vettel not him.

 

Like I said will stay up all night and wait for rain and probably dump money on Verstappen.  Just might have to wait a while.

Sounds like that is normal practice though for teams (bottas letting Hamilton pass). The announcers were prediciting it to happen before hand understanding (or at least thinking) Hamilton was the only one of the two of them that had a chance at catching Vettel, so if Merc as a team wanted to win they had to let Hamilton go. Also i imagine its a big thing for the team to have the drivers champion right? So better for the Merc outfit to have Hamilton collect the points, just like it would be better for Vettel to finish ahead of the Ferrari Finn if those two were close towards the end

 

Hamilton seems like the kind of guy fans either love or despise. Very brash, very talented but huge ego. He at least seems friendly with the other top guys right now, always see him and Vettel being friendly and happy for each other after the races this year. Maybe hes just happy Rosberg is gone?

[LCD]

It's going to be cool and Mercedes does better in cool, track is easy on tires, there will be only one pitstop, Mercedes has led every lap at the Sochi Autodrome for the three recent Russian Grand Prix, that passing will be difficult and with the extreme engine mode the two Mercedes are likely to outqualify Vettel (with the likely outcome that Bottas will delay Vettel and stop the undercut unless Vettel can jump the start).  This is Bottas' best track which makes me not want to bet on Hamilton for pole at a shitty price even though it turns out he was having a mechanical problem that lost him the pole last race (though might be bullshit Mercedes spin).

 

Russian Grand Prix

Lewis Hamilton -108 to win 2 units

Valtteri Bottas +770 to win .5 units

[HRWager]

LCD Im sending my parents over to the Catalunia grand prix in late May. I used to be a huge F1 fan but Ive lost interest in the past few years, its gotten too boring. My dad still wakes up at midnight to watch the races.

[LCD]

They're going to Barcelona in May so anything after that is gravy.

 

As far as the race, the track will probably favor Ferrari. Vettel makes this a three car race at least and Kimi did well here last year but the car just doesnt suit him.

 

Red Bull supposedly will have a "massive" upgrade for the race. Its Newey. Verstappen won here last year so there will be a lot of excitement at the start.