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Betting on teams that get blown out

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#1
GreenDoberman

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Have no data to back this up, but noticed it after the Padres lost 14-3 on opening day.

They come back and win 4-0 as a plus 2-1 dog.

 

Always bet this in NFL if a team lost by 30 or 40.  Double if they have a bye as well.  Two weeks to think about there putrid performance.

 

Looking at MLB teams that lose by 10 or more runs.  How often does this happen over the course of a season?

 

Most bettors psychologically don't want to back the bad team and think they stink.  Most professional teams don't like to be embarrassed and will be extra-motivated next time out.

 

Also looking at betting on teams that get shutout.

 

That's the theory anyway.

 

Any thoughts?



#2
Cdmx

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It was a good NFL angle for years on dogs. I doubt it works anymore.

#3
IAG

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The only system I remember seeing re: MLB shutouts is to fade a team that got shutout in chase next 5-6 games til win. Seems like this did fairly well last year....maybe it was 2015 I think it was tested the other way in chase also, but don't remember how that went.
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#4
Guest_pocketrockets_*

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The only system I remember seeing re: MLB shutouts is to fade a team that got shutout in chase next 5-6 games til win. Seems like this did fairly well last year....maybe it was 2015 I think it was tested the other way in chase also, but don't remember how that went.


Shutouts = zero runs?

#5
IAG

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Shutouts = zero runs?

yes.
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#6
GreenDoberman

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3 of the 4 teams that were shutout the game before won today, including the Braves at a juicy +200.

The loser was Seattle who had a lead in extra innings only to blow it giving up a walk-off.

 

PHI, OAK, and PIT were all shut out today.

 

I don't follow NBA but I see that Philly lost by 50 last time out.  They are +6 vs Bulls and gotta think no squares are gonna back the Sixers.



#7
GreenDoberman

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1-1 with the +190 dog hitting yesterday.

 

One postponement, so the Pirates are moved up to today.

 

NBA teams tanking this time, so best idea for someone like me who doesn't follow is to pass.



#8
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Yep, bad week to bet NBA UNLESS you are betting a team that is still fighting for a playoff spot against a team that is tanking/resting squad...

 

Under that pretense Heat, Mavericks and Nuggets stand out for tomorrow.



#9
GreenDoberman

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Pirates won as a fave after getting shutout.

 

Have that angle as 5-3 +4.0 units so far.

 

Cards would be a play Saturday.



#10
TobyTyler

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Thx for tracking I'll tail Cards -1

#11
gijoe066

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DOG DAY YESTERDAY



#12
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BOOM CARDS!!!



#13
Moldoveanu

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Cards did not get blown out wtf ?

2 runs only

#14
GreenDoberman

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STL won for fun.  So far, so good.

That is part of the shutout turnaround theory.

 

No one was shutout Saturday.

 

But those Washington Nationals got embarrassed and humiliated by the Phillies. 17-3.  Giving up 12 in the first inning.

Gotta think they went to bed a little pissed.

 

Strasburg on the bump for the Nats Sunday in Philly.  Steep price around -175, but worth a flutter.



#15
fifty cint

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Balls Deep



#16
Inkwell77

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According to sportsdatabase the "Bet the team after they score zero runs" trend has not worked historically. 

 

Betting against teams after losing by more than 10 runs has worked well the past 6 years (about 300 games total), one would be up about 13 units fading teams after getting blown out. 

 

How it will work in the future is the question.....

 

http://sportsdatabas...t= S D Q L !



#17
fifty cint

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Buried



#18
GreenDoberman

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WAS lost yesterday.  Bats came alive one day late.

 

STL lost to WAS, they were coming off of being shutout.

 

YTD looks like 10+ run loss:  1-1 (+0.15)

Off shutout 6-4 (+3.0)

 

KC and HOU were both shutout today.

 

KC is off tomorrow.

 

Hou is a road fave over SEA.  Joe Musgrove vs Ariel Miranda.



#19
Moldoveanu

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I don't think that 10+ runs should have a factor losing by 8 , 9 , 10 runs is already a blow out I think anything after 7+ runs should have some stats and not only 10+ because teams that already lose by at least close to double digits will have same out come as losing by 20 is to come back and start winning and getting revenge just as other teams that lose by 1 run

But maybe you should make the stats wider

For example 10+ runs win loss

7-9 runs win loss

2 records maybe we can find something good

#20
GreenDoberman

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I'm tracking the 10 or more runs and the shutouts. 

 

You are welcome to track anything else in here if you want.



#21
GreenDoberman

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Hou beat Seattle, led the whole way.  Springer is a beast at lead off.

 

Two for tomorrow, one of each 10+loss and shutout.

 

KC and PHI.

 

Will update record later.



#22
KingRevolver

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Good luck with this, pal. :cheers

#23
Gabe

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I like this. I feel like the market overreacts a bit too. One game doesn't mean shit unless numerous BP guys are gassed

#24
GreenDoberman

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KC and PHI both lost today.

 

YTD records-

 

Off shutotut: 7-5 (+2.85)

Off 10+ run loss:  1-2 (-0.90)

 

Three teams were shutout today:  COL, CHI, and TOR.



#25
Gabe

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Popcorn




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