GreenDoberman Posted April 5, 2017 Report Share Posted April 5, 2017 Have no data to back this up, but noticed it after the Padres lost 14-3 on opening day.They come back and win 4-0 as a plus 2-1 dog. Always bet this in NFL if a team lost by 30 or 40. Double if they have a bye as well. Two weeks to think about there putrid performance. Looking at MLB teams that lose by 10 or more runs. How often does this happen over the course of a season? Most bettors psychologically don't want to back the bad team and think they stink. Most professional teams don't like to be embarrassed and will be extra-motivated next time out. Also looking at betting on teams that get shutout. That's the theory anyway. Any thoughts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cdmx Posted April 5, 2017 Report Share Posted April 5, 2017 It was a good NFL angle for years on dogs. I doubt it works anymore. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IAG Posted April 5, 2017 Report Share Posted April 5, 2017 The only system I remember seeing re: MLB shutouts is to fade a team that got shutout in chase next 5-6 games til win. Seems like this did fairly well last year....maybe it was 2015 I think it was tested the other way in chase also, but don't remember how that went. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest pocketrockets Posted April 5, 2017 Report Share Posted April 5, 2017 The only system I remember seeing re: MLB shutouts is to fade a team that got shutout in chase next 5-6 games til win. Seems like this did fairly well last year....maybe it was 2015 I think it was tested the other way in chase also, but don't remember how that went.Shutouts = zero runs? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IAG Posted April 5, 2017 Report Share Posted April 5, 2017 Shutouts = zero runs? yes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenDoberman Posted April 6, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 6, 2017 3 of the 4 teams that were shutout the game before won today, including the Braves at a juicy +200.The loser was Seattle who had a lead in extra innings only to blow it giving up a walk-off. PHI, OAK, and PIT were all shut out today. I don't follow NBA but I see that Philly lost by 50 last time out. They are +6 vs Bulls and gotta think no squares are gonna back the Sixers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenDoberman Posted April 7, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 7, 2017 1-1 with the +190 dog hitting yesterday. One postponement, so the Pirates are moved up to today. NBA teams tanking this time, so best idea for someone like me who doesn't follow is to pass. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest pocketrockets Posted April 7, 2017 Report Share Posted April 7, 2017 Yep, bad week to bet NBA UNLESS you are betting a team that is still fighting for a playoff spot against a team that is tanking/resting squad... Under that pretense Heat, Mavericks and Nuggets stand out for tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenDoberman Posted April 8, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 8, 2017 Pirates won as a fave after getting shutout. Have that angle as 5-3 +4.0 units so far. Cards would be a play Saturday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TobyTyler Posted April 8, 2017 Report Share Posted April 8, 2017 Thx for tracking I'll tail Cards -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gijoe066 Posted April 8, 2017 Report Share Posted April 8, 2017 DOG DAY YESTERDAY Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest pocketrockets Posted April 8, 2017 Report Share Posted April 8, 2017 BOOM CARDS!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moldoveanu Posted April 8, 2017 Report Share Posted April 8, 2017 Cards did not get blown out wtf ? 2 runs only Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenDoberman Posted April 9, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 9, 2017 STL won for fun. So far, so good.That is part of the shutout turnaround theory. No one was shutout Saturday. But those Washington Nationals got embarrassed and humiliated by the Phillies. 17-3. Giving up 12 in the first inning.Gotta think they went to bed a little pissed. Strasburg on the bump for the Nats Sunday in Philly. Steep price around -175, but worth a flutter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fifty cint Posted April 9, 2017 Report Share Posted April 9, 2017 Balls Deep Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inkwell77 Posted April 9, 2017 Report Share Posted April 9, 2017 According to sportsdatabase the "Bet the team after they score zero runs" trend has not worked historically. Betting against teams after losing by more than 10 runs has worked well the past 6 years (about 300 games total), one would be up about 13 units fading teams after getting blown out. How it will work in the future is the question..... http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?output=default&su=1&ou=1&sdql=p%3Amargin%3C-10+and+season%3E2009&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fifty cint Posted April 10, 2017 Report Share Posted April 10, 2017 Buried Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenDoberman Posted April 11, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 11, 2017 WAS lost yesterday. Bats came alive one day late. STL lost to WAS, they were coming off of being shutout. YTD looks like 10+ run loss: 1-1 (+0.15)Off shutout 6-4 (+3.0) KC and HOU were both shutout today. KC is off tomorrow. Hou is a road fave over SEA. Joe Musgrove vs Ariel Miranda. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moldoveanu Posted April 11, 2017 Report Share Posted April 11, 2017 I don't think that 10+ runs should have a factor losing by 8 , 9 , 10 runs is already a blow out I think anything after 7+ runs should have some stats and not only 10+ because teams that already lose by at least close to double digits will have same out come as losing by 20 is to come back and start winning and getting revenge just as other teams that lose by 1 run But maybe you should make the stats wider For example 10+ runs win loss 7-9 runs win loss 2 records maybe we can find something good Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenDoberman Posted April 11, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 11, 2017 I'm tracking the 10 or more runs and the shutouts. You are welcome to track anything else in here if you want. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenDoberman Posted April 12, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 12, 2017 Hou beat Seattle, led the whole way. Springer is a beast at lead off. Two for tomorrow, one of each 10+loss and shutout. KC and PHI. Will update record later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingRevolver Posted April 13, 2017 Report Share Posted April 13, 2017 Good luck with this, pal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gabe Posted April 13, 2017 Report Share Posted April 13, 2017 I like this. I feel like the market overreacts a bit too. One game doesn't mean shit unless numerous BP guys are gassed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenDoberman Posted April 13, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 13, 2017 KC and PHI both lost today. YTD records- Off shutotut: 7-5 (+2.85)Off 10+ run loss: 1-2 (-0.90) Three teams were shutout today: COL, CHI, and TOR. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gabe Posted April 13, 2017 Report Share Posted April 13, 2017 Popcorn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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