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Betting on teams that get blown out

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#26
Reno Marty

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You're going to fall flat on your face with this SYSTEM


"A few short years back in my end of things you couldn't find one fukkin arm that would take Mathy on a sheet. His name was shit even amongst the backalley juicemen." - billysink


#27
GreenSoberMan

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Marty,

The purpose of the thread was to stir a little bit of intellectual debate.

Most systems by nature are losers, and that may certainly be the case here.  If it is a loser by a wide margin, then we have found a profitable fade.

Most likely it lands somewhere in the middle and we lose the vig, making neither side profitable.

 

I have priced the games very conservatively, and line shoppers no doubt could increase their ROI (or decrease their losses) by searching for better prices.



#28
GreenSoberMan

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COL and CHC won, while TOR lost today.

 

Current YTD on Shutouts is:  9-6 (+5.25)

 

LAD were shutout today.  Steep price tomorrow in pitcher's duel.



#29
Reno Marty

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Marty,

The purpose of the thread was to stir a little bit of intellectual debate.

Most systems by nature are losers, and that may certainly be the case here.  If it is a loser by a wide margin, then we have found a profitable fade.

Most likely it lands somewhere in the middle and we lose the vig, making neither side profitable.

 

I have priced the games very conservatively, and line shoppers no doubt could increase their ROI (or decrease their losses) by searching for better prices.

 

GD, the phrases "system" and "intellectual debate" should never appear anywhere near each other. A system does not involve quantifying your edge and is therefore pure guessing. I would guess you'll exactly lose the vig, which is just as much as you'd lose flipping coins.


"A few short years back in my end of things you couldn't find one fukkin arm that would take Mathy on a sheet. His name was shit even amongst the backalley juicemen." - billysink


#30
GreenSoberMan

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LAD with the convincing win.

 

No shutouts today and no blowouts.  Seems like it is the first day of the year with no shutouts.

 

That means nothing though.

 

Flipped a coin 10,000 times today too for Marty.  Landed heads 5003 times, tails 4997 times.



#31
GreenSoberMan

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3 teams were shut out today.  All look like poor matchups Sunday.  

We'll hold our nose and go with:

 

SF -130

CWS +125

TEX -110



#32
GreenSoberMan

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1-2 on Sunday.

 

0-1 yesterday.

 

Angels are the first team to get shutout back-to-back (I think).

 

YTD:11-9 (+4.1)

 

Yankees have won 8 in a row.

James Paxton has an ERA of 0.00

Four players are batting over .400.  Would be a challenge to name even one of them off the top of head.



#33
GreenSoberMan

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LAA and OAK both won as dogs, +130 and +120.

LAA were shutout back-to-back, and I put two units on them.

 

For record keeping purposes, will keep it to one unit though to be consistent.

 

YTD teams coming off a shutout are 13-9 (+6.6 units).

 

Seattle was shutout tonight (and almost no hit).

They are a fave with King Felix on the mound tomorrow and will be a play.



#34
TobyTyler

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Shit I meant to play those two and forgot

Thanks for tracking

#35
GreenSoberMan

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SEA with the comfortable 10-5 win over MIA.

 

Runs the shutout YTD to 14-9 (+7.6 units)

 

I would be interested to see the scores of these games after a team was shutout.  See if anything developed regarding totals and/or team totals.

 

WAS routed ATL 14-4.  

 

ATL is a 10+ run loser play at a juicy price (+165)

 

4 teams were shutout Wednesday:  ARZ, BOS, CIN, SF

 

Plays are:

arz -110 SD

bos -150 TOR

CIN +115 bal

 

SF is off and resumes action Friday versus COL.



#36
GreenSoberMan

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1 for last 5 off shutout. Blowout lost Thursday as well.

YTD records

Off shutout :15-13 +4.35
Off blowout: 1-3 -1.9

CWS and Bos are shutout plays tomorrow.

#37
Guest_pocketrockets_*

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This is getting interesting

Good job GD

#38
GreenSoberMan

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Both sox teams lost today. Record is back to 500 although plus units.

White Sox were shut out twice in a row last time this happened the Angels erupted for a bunch of runs.

#39
GreenSoberMan

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White Sox with the win off the double shutout today.

 

Current records-

Shutout YTD: 16-15 (+4.05)

Double shutout YTD: 2-0 (+3.0)

 

We have a shutout play for tomorrow in the woeful SF Giants.  Currently +130 against the Dodgers.

 

The A's lost by 10 today.  They have an extra day to sit and stew before they play the Angels on Tuesday.

 

10-run losers YTD are currently 1-3 (-1.9)



#40
TobyTyler

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i went with Giants TT over 3.5 +100. Cain too scary for me.



#41
gijoe066

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I'm watching!!!



#42
GreenSoberMan

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SFG win a tight one.

 

3 games for tomorrow, 1 shutout loser and two 10-run losers.

 

oak +120 LAA (remember they got shut out Sunday)

 

10-run losers:

 

PIT +125 chc

kc -135 CWS



#43
GreenSoberMan

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Rough day yesterday, got swept for an 0-3.

 

Cole couldn't have done much more for the Pirates, but the bats went silent.

 

Updated YTDs-

Shutouts 17-16 (+4.35)

10-run losers 1-5 (-4.25)  fade time or small sample size?

 

2 shutout plays tomorrow:

PIT +155  with the rare off a 10-run loser then getting shutout combo

BAL -140

 

10-run loser play:

sea -125



#44
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3-0 today, 2 shutout wins and the 10-run loser win.

 

DET was shutout.  They are -135 against SEA tomorrow.

 

TEX beat MIN 14-3.

MIN is off and plays Friday.

 

 



#45
GreenSoberMan

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Marlins lost yesterday.  Tomorrow they are the rare 10-run loser/got shutout combo.

Only Sunday play.  

 

DET lost two days ago.  Yesterday sweep of BOS,MIN, COL.

 

YTD totals:

 

10-run losers:  4-6 (-1.85)

Shutout: 20-17 (+6.65)



#46
GreenSoberMan

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ytd record,

 

shutout:  43-42 (+7.5)

 

10-run loss 12-17 (-4.4)



#47
yisman

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we missed you in May



#48
GreenSoberMan

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kept up rcords.  buncha douches here. 

not hard to follow.



#49
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Have been keeping track but not updating this.

 

Through 7/3/17 action-

 

10+ run losers YTD:  24-25 (+1.4 units)

Shutout previous game YTD: 65-55 (+20.0 units)



#50
barman

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Scoring differential in any sport tends to regress to center so watching for spots where the fave is coming off several Wins and the dog off several losses can be a useful indicator. I find it works best in NHL and NBA.....NFL to some degree...MLB maybe hardest as streaks seem to be more frequent




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