ESPN INSIDER~ Every NFL teams biggest need come draft day

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AFC East

By Aaron Schatz

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Buffalo Bills

Biggest need: wide receiver

Three of the Bills' four top wide receivers from last year signed with other teams this offseason. The fourth is Sammy Watkins, who may never reach his NFL potential after repeated foot surgeries. If Watkins isn't healthy to start the 2017 season, Buffalo's starting receivers will be Corey Brown (ex-Carolina) and Andre Holmes (ex-Oakland), who would make very good fourth options. The rest of the depth chart is made up of special-teamers such as Walt Powell, Brandon Tate and Jeremy Butler.

Quiet need: cornerback

This is a similar situation to wide receiver, a "quieter" need only because cornerback is not a position in most fantasy football leagues. Four Buffalo cornerbacks had at least 400 defensive snaps last year, and three of them are now gone. That leaves Ronald Darby, the main holdover, set to start across from 2016 sixth-round pick Kevon Seymour. The prospective nickelback, Leonard Johnson, had a below-average 50 percent success rate in coverage with Carolina last year and is now on his fourth NFL roster in the past three years. The rest of the depth chart is made up of undrafted players with little NFL experience.

Not a need: defensive tackle

It seems like the Bills have switched defensive schemes nearly every year for the past decade, and they're back to a 4-3 this year. So between youngster Adolphus Washington (who had a promising 2016 rookie season) and veterans Marcell Dareus and Kyle Williams, someone has to be left out of the starting lineup.

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Miami Dolphins

Biggest need: linebacker

Kiko Alonso has never fully recovered the mobility he showed in his rookie year, but he's locked in as one of Miami's starters. The others are question marks. Free-agent signing Lawrence Timmons turns 31 soon, which is part of why Pittsburgh let him leave. He could start in the middle and move Alonso to the weak side, or be a rotational player on the outside. Koa Misi missed most of last year with a neck injury and took a pay cut to come back as the penciled-in starter on the strong side. Neville Hewitt has outplayed his pedigree as an undrafted free agent, but is he good enough to be a full-time starter?

 

Quiet need: defensive tackle

Ndamukong Suh is set in stone, thanks to both his talent and his contract, but the decision to cut both Earl Mitchell and Jason Jones leaves the other starting spot to 2015 second-rounder Jordan Phillips, who has been inconsistent in his first two NFL seasons. Plus, defensive tackle is a position where you want depth to rotate in fresh bodies, and right now the only other defensive tackle on the roster is Lawrence Okoye.

Guard is also a need with Laremy Tunsil moving outside to left tackle.

Not a need: safety

Rashad Jones should be back from his torn rotator cuff, and the Dolphins signed Nate Allen to play next to him. They also added T.J. McDonald from the Rams, though he'll start the season serving an eight-game suspension. Behind them are special-teams stalwarts Michael Thomas (who also has 23 games of starting experience on defense) and Walt Aikens. A number of draftniks are giving the Dolphins a safety in the second or third round of their deep mock drafts, but there doesn't seem to be a lot of roster room at the position.

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New England Patriots

Biggest need: defensive end

Pass rush may be the only clear weakness on the Patriots' roster. New England was average last year with a 26.8 percent pressure rate (18th) according to ESPN Stats & Information, and near the bottom of the league with a 5.0 percent adjusted sack rate (27th). Yes, Trey Flowers really came on at the end of the 2016 season, but DE/LB hybrid Rob Ninkovich is now 33. New acquisition Kony Ealy disappointed in Carolina last season and is effectively a one-year rental. The Patriots need a young pass-rusher to groom as Ninkovich's replacement if Ealy doesn't stick around past this season.

Quiet need: swing tackle

Marcus Cannon finally lived up to his potential as a starter last season, but now the Patriots need to upgrade the depth behind him and Nate Solder. Cameron Fleming has never been very impressive when forced into the lineup, and LaAdrian Waddle spent most of last year as a healthy inactive.

Not a need: wide receiver

The buzz around the Patriots media at the end of 2016 is that the team would look to give more opportunity to second-year receiver Malcolm Mitchell in 2017. Then they went out and traded for Brandin Cooks, giving them a true No. 1 threat. Add in Julian Edelman, Chris Hogan and Danny Amendola, and you've got both quality starters and depth.

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New York Jets

Biggest need: quarterback

"Everything but the defensive line" is a bit too big a bite to chew on, so instead we'll start with the most important position in the game. Josh McCown is a veteran placeholder, Bryce Petty had a horrendous 19.5 QBR in limited time last season and one redshirt year is probably not going to fix Christian Hackenberg's awful passing mechanics. That pick was roundly derided as soon as the Jets made it in last year's second round, and it wouldn't be surprising to see the Jets take another quarterback just one year later.

Quiet need: pass-rushers

This has been a need for the Jets for years now, but it's sort of receded into the background because of the awful quarterback situation. However, the next-best thing to having a quarterback of your own is being able to pressure the other team's quarterback. The Jets were phenomenal against the run but ranked dead last with an adjusted sack rate of 4.3 percent and 26th with a pressure rate of 25.1 percent. This is the kind of thing that happens when you are playing a 295-pound defensive end (Sheldon Richardson) at outside linebacker. No Jets edge rusher had more than 2.5 sacks last season.

Not a need: defensive line

On the other hand, the top three Jets in sacks were the three interior linemen: Leonard Williams, Muhammad Wilkerson and Steve McLendon. The Jets also have led the league in run defense DVOA for two straight seasons. Even if they deal away Richardson, the Jets have so many other holes that they shouldn't worry about depth here.

 

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AFC North

By Rivers McCown

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Baltimore Ravens

Biggest need: wide receiver

The Ravens have yet to adequately replace the retiring Steve Smith. At the top of their depth chart at the moment is the enigmatic Mike Wallace and the former first-round pick Breshad Perriman, who has flashed in limited playing time but has started just one of a possible 32 games because of injuries. The Ravens don't have a single receiver who posted a DVOA above 1.0 percent last season. They've got some interesting cogs who could fill out the bottom of a depth chart, but a receiver that could help take the load off Wallace and Perriman is a necessary addition.

Quiet need: offensive line

Marshal Yanda is lonely. Right tackle Rick Wagner left in free agency, and center Jeremy Zuttah was traded. John Urschel is being relied on to step in up front, but somewhere between right tackle and right guard this team could use a boost. Baltimore finished 20th in adjusted line yards last year and, while left tackle Ronnie Stanley's continued development should help, there's still uncertainty here.

Not a need: running back

The Ravens have free-agent signing Danny Woodhead and holdover Terrance West ready for the beginning of the season. Kenneth Dixon, who will start out on the suspended list, is a real competitor for the lead role. Buck Allen was drafted less than two years ago and is basically a forgotten man on the depth chart. It's a great draft class for backs, but the Ravens don't need one.

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Cincinnati Bengals

Biggest need: offensive line

The Bengals lost both Andrew Whitworth and Kevin Zeitler in free agency. The players they were counting on to be ready for Whitworth's departure looked unready last season, helping contribute to a No. 26 finish in adjusted sack rate. The 2015 first-rounder Cedric Ogbuehi was horrendous all over the line last year, and 2015 second-rounder Jake Fisher has barely played. When your second-best lineman is Zeitler, you're doing OK. When your second-best lineman is Russell Bodine, things start to get a little dire.

Quiet need: running back

Jeremy Hill was vastly outplayed by Rex Burkhead last season when Burkhead was given a chance. Burkhead compiled 163 DYAR in 74 carries, as compared to Hill's 35 DYAR in 222 carries, but took his talents to New England. Giovani Bernard is coming off ACL surgery and may not be ready for the start of the season. Cedric Peerman, special teams ace, is the third guy on the depth chart. On a team that desperately needs to establish the run to keep Andy Dalton safe, this might be a more pressing need than you would think.

Not a need: cornerback

In addition to keeping Dre Kirkpatrick, the Bengals have two recent first-round picks and Adam Jones at the position. They're good here.

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Cleveland Browns

Biggest need: quarterback ... always quarterback

The Browns seem to be in perpetual need of a quarterback. Potential offseason targets like Jimmy Garoppolo and Tyrod Taylor went nowhere, and now they must turn to the draft again. It seems likely that the first-round pick they hold from Philadelphia in last year's Carson Wentz trade will be maneuvered to steer them to one in 2017. The question is: Which one? Incumbent Cody Kessler finished with 48.2 QBR last year and wasn't awful, but profiles more as a solid No. 2.

Quiet need: edge rusher

Everyone pencils in Myles Garrett to the Browns at No. 1 overall despite the fact that quarterback is a pressing need, but edge rushers are the quarterbacks of the defense. Not many teams have a great one, and those that have a top-15 option there raise the tide for their entire defense. The Browns have stockpiled decent depth and found their way to 21st in defensive adjusted sack rate last year. Drafting Garrett would allow that depth to settle into more appropriate spots.

Not a need: offensive line

After luring Zeitler from Cincinnati and JC Tretter from Green Bay, offensive line is likely the most settled position on the roster. Cameron Erving is by no means a sure starter after struggling his first two years, but 2016 third-rounder Shon Coleman provides decent depth. And it's a good draft to not need an offensive lineman.

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Pittsburgh Steelers

Biggest need: edge rusher

Bud Dupree busted out at the very end of last season, with all of his 4.5 sacks coming in December, but the Steelers again had to call on the ageless James Harrison to bail out the struggling Jarvis Jones -- who then left for Arizona this offseason. Harrison (38 years old) can't keep doing this forever, and the Steelers need to find his replacement in this draft. They simply can't go through another stretch like they did before their bye last year where the pass rush was non-existent.

Quiet need: quarterback

Ben Roethlisberger talked about retiring but ultimately decided against it. While Roethlisberger is still capable of excellent games, his consistency and ability to play through injury is fading as he ages (now 35). It's better to be a year ahead of the curve on this one, as Landry Jones isn't the long-term answer. Perhaps it is time for Pittsburgh to find Roethlisberger's replacement a la Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay. The best quarterbacks in this class could definitely use a year to sit anyway.

Not a need: offensive line

The Steelers' starting lineup is set with Maurkice Pouncey, Marcus Gilbert, David DeCastro and Ramon Foster. The weakest link, left tackle Alejandro Villanueva, is at worst a below-average player rather than a sieve. And interior lineman B.J. Finney flashed in his play last year, so the Steelers are better off depth-wise than most teams.

 

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AFC South

By Tom Gower

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Houston Texans

Biggest need: quarterback

Maybe the most obvious pressing question in the NFL since Tony Romo retired: What other way can Houston upgrade at quarterback? Bill O'Brien made journeymen Ryan Fitzpatrick and Brian Hoyer semi-competent but couldn't do the same with failed signing Brock Osweiler. Tom Savage was a bit below average (minus-5.1 percent DVOA) on 78 passes last year. Can they really go into a season counting on him or Brandon Weeden?

Quiet need: running back

Lamar Miller came into 2016 with a lot of hype after the Texans gave him a big contract in the offseason. He ranked in the bottom 10 among running backs in both rushing and receiving DVOA and showed that perhaps Miami's coaches were correct to limit his role. Upgrades at quarterback and on the offensive line would help, but he needs a better complement.

Not a need: wide receiver

Did the first- and third-round picks the Texans spent on Will Fuller and Braxton Miller in the 2016 draft give them what they needed opposite DeAndre Hopkins? Remember, they also have 2015 third-rounder Jaelen Strong in the mix. Osweiler's struggles last season made it difficult to see what the answer is. Houston needs to find out what these young talents could do in a better situation before they look at changing this group.

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Indianapolis Colts

Biggest need: pass-rusher

ESPN Stats & Info charting ranked Indianapolis 31st in the league with a 21.5 percent pressure rate; Sports Info Solutions has them even worse, coming in dead last at 18.0 percent. In the offseason, new GM Chris Ballard created depth where there was none at outside linebacker, but the franchise tag took away the top players so he had to settle for rotational players such as Jabaal Sheard and John Simon. He still needs the pass-rushers who can be Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney for Andrew Luck, and resist the siren song of another offensive lineman early.

 

Editor's Picks

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Quiet need: running back

Frank Gore is still a quality back who finished 13th in rushing DVOA and became the first Colt to rush for 1,000 yards in a season since Joseph Addai in 2007, but he turns 34 in May. Marcus Allen and Emmitt Smith are the only backs in the past 30 years to rush for at least 800 yards at Gore's age or older. Unless he is in fact immortal, the Colts will need help very soon at the running back position.

Not a need: quarterback

Scott Tolzien did not fare well in his limited playing time in 2016, but should Luck's shoulder injury prove more serious than feared, Indianapolis' best strategy is to improve the team around the quarterback rather than to look for an upgrade on Tolzien.

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Jacksonville Jaguars

Biggest need: offensive line

Jacksonville returns three-fifths of its starting offensive line, but the left side is in flux. Brandon Albert is currently penciled in at left tackle after being acquired in a bargain-basement trade with Miami, while left guard is open after the departure of former No. 2 overall pick Luke Joeckel. The Jaguars should add a player who can contribute in 2017 at either guard or tackle.

Quiet need: running back

Blake Bortles drew the headlines, but the bigger surprise may have been the way Jacksonville's running game declined after they added Chris Ivory in free agency to complement T.J. Yeldon. Ivory finished last and Yeldon next-to-last in rushing DVOA. Both players might be serviceable on a much better team, but a marquee back could make a big difference for a Jacksonville offense that might be mostly the same elsewhere.

Not a need: wide receiver

Marqise Lee was the bright spot in Jacksonville's receiving corps last season, ranking in the top 20 in both receiving DYAR and DVOA. Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns both accomplished that feat in 2015, so the Jaguars have three receivers with three years of experience who have performed at high levels. Of course, if they all want to put together similar quality years at once, they'll need better quarterback play.

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Tennessee Titans

Biggest need: wide receiver

Tennessee returns just two wideouts who were targeted at least 25 times in 2016. One of those is Tajae Sharpe, who came in around replacement level as a rookie according to FO metrics. The Titans may rank toward the bottom of the league in using three-receiver sets, but they need at least one more good option -- maybe two -- to challenge Sharpe and Harry Douglas for spots across from Rishard Matthews.

Quiet need: outside linebacker

Derrick Morgan and Brian Orakpo combined for 19.5 sacks, but second-round pick Kevin Dodd had a disappointing and injury-plagued campaign. Morgan and Orakpo have their own injury histories, and Orakpo will be 31 this season. Even a high pick might be worth it, if he plays a rotational role in 2017 and replaces Morgan or Orakpo in 2018 or 2019.

Not a need: offensive tackle

Tennessee went from dead last to average in adjusted sack rate after moving up to draft right tackle Jack Conklin in the first round last year. Between Conklin and left tackle Taylor Lewan's step-up in play, the Titans appear to have the bookend tackles that other teams crave.

 

 

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AFC West

By Scott Kacsmar

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Denver Broncos

Biggest need: offensive line

Last year's line revamp did not pay off, as Russell Okung lasted only one season at left tackle. Ty Sambrailo hasn't been able to stay healthy or show he has the spot locked down when he was active (seven starts in two seasons). Left guard Max Garcia and center Matt Paradis were late-round draft picks who the Broncos have tried to get by with. Free-agent additions Ronald Leary and Menelik Watson bring promise on the right side, but Denver could use a franchise building block along the line. The Broncos hold the 20th and 51st picks in the draft, but have not taken an offensive lineman that high since Orlando Franklin (46th) in 2011.

Quiet need: tight end/wide receiver

Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders make for one of the league's best receiving duos, but Denver has really struggled to find a third option. The problem dates back to 2015 when the team did not adequately replace slot receiver Wes Welker and tight end Julius Thomas. Recent high draft picks have not panned out: Cody Latimer, a 2014 second-round pick, has 16 catches in three seasons, and Jeff Heuerman, a 2015 third-round pick, caught only nine balls last year in 12 games. Whether the quarterback is Trevor Siemian or Paxton Lynch, the Broncos have to do better than Virgil Green and Bennie Fowler as other receiving options to open up this offense.

Not a need: outside linebacker

The Broncos had a great pair of outside linebackers in Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware, but the latter retired this offseason with Canton in his future. However, Ware's retirement was always imminent, which is a big reason why the team drafted Shane Ray in the first round in 2015. Ray already picked up 8.0 sacks last season when Ware was injured, so he should be ready for a big season as a full-time starter with Miller still commanding a lot of attention on the other side. Shaquil Barrett provides solid depth should Miller or Ray get injured.

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Kansas City Chiefs

Biggest need: inside linebacker

Derrick Johnson's ruptured Achilles was one of the bigger injuries last season, impacting a Kansas City defense that already had the most injuries in the front seven in 2016. This had a lot to do with the Chiefs ranking 26th in DVOA against the run. Johnson will turn 35 in November and can't be heavily relied on anymore. Otherwise, the Chiefs have only marginal players to fill in this spot, with Ramik Wilson, D.J. Alexander and Justin March-Lillard on the depth chart.

Quiet need: running back

While the Chiefs added C.J. Spiller in the offseason, this is his fifth team since 2014. The loss of Jamaal Charles is not something the Chiefs should have to use a premium draft pick to account for, but Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West were not quite up to the task of filling his shoes last year. The Chiefs ranked 27th in second-level yards and 22nd in open-field yards (those are the gains that occur more than 5 yards beyond the line of scrimmage). Ware did well enough to take the yards the line opened up for him, but the big plays were missing in Kansas City's running game. That is partly why Ware ranked seventh in rushing success rate, but 22nd in DVOA.

Not a need: outside linebacker

Much like their rivals in Denver, the Chiefs have a clear plan at outside linebacker. Justin Houston and Tamba Hali have made for a great duo, but Hali (34 in November) is more of a situational player at this point. Former first-round pick Dee Ford started 14 games last year and notched 10 sacks. If Houston can stay healthy, then the Chiefs might have the best pass-rushing group in the division.

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Los Angeles Chargers

Biggest need: offensive line

The Chargers are still searching for answers along the offensive line. Left tackle King Dunlap was released and replaced by Russell Okung, who is on his third team in three years. Orlando Franklin has not lived up to his free-agent deal at left guard. Former first-round pick D.J. Fluker was let go after a disappointing time in San Diego. Donavon Clark, a seventh-round pick who spent his rookie season on injured reserve, could be the new right guard, while Joe Barksdale is a stopgap solution at right tackle. The Chargers could realistically go anywhere in the draft along any position on the line.

Quiet need: quarterback

Philip Rivers turns 36 this year and has led the Chargers to only one postseason appearance in the past seven seasons. He has also led the league in interceptions in two of the past three seasons. This could be a good draft to find his successor. While the Chargers are unlikely to use the No. 7 pick on a quarterback, No. 38 pick overall (second round) could be a prime spot for any quarterback prospect that slides in this draft.

Not a need: tight end

Antonio Gates has 111 receiving touchdowns, which ties him with Tony Gonzalez for the most in NFL history by a tight end. Even at age 37 this year, Gates should be able to catch one more score to break that record. However, age has clearly caught up with Gates, who averaged a career-low 10.3 yards per reception in 2016. The good news is that Hunter Henry already looks like the real deal for the Chargers, catching eight touchdowns as a rookie and ranking fourth in DVOA.

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Oakland Raiders

Biggest need: inside linebacker

The Raiders have some big names on the edge with Khalil Mack and Bruce Irvin, but there is not much to speak of in the middle of the field. Ben Heeney, Tyrell Adams, Neiron Ball and Cory James are not an intimidating group for opposing offenses. The Raiders ranked dead last in yards per play allowed (9.7) when facing play-action, according to Sports Info Solutions charting. Oakland hasn't invested anything higher than a fifth-round pick into its Inside linebacker depth chart, and that may need to change in this draft for the defense to improve with better athletes and playmakers.

 

Quiet need: cornerback

In an AFC where the Raiders will have to outscore the Patriots and Steelers, you can never have too many good corners. Oakland said goodbye to former first-round pick D.J. Hayden after a disappointing tenure. Free-agent addition Sean Smith struggled in his first year with the team, allowing 10.0 yards per pass target (ranked 80th among qualified cornerbacks according to Sports Info Solutions charting). David Amerson was not much better, ranked 60th at 8.0 yards per pass, and TJ Carrie can be a slot corner, but he also struggled last season. Hayden, a first-round pick in 2013, was the last cornerback drafted by the Raiders in the top 100 picks since 2012.

Not a need: safety

Oakland used a first-round pick on safety Karl Joseph a year ago, and despite a toe injury that cost him four games, he performed up to expectations. He should have that job locked down for a long time, while Reggie Nelson made the Pro Bowl with five interceptions in his first season with the team. Nelson will be 34 this season and a free agent in 2018, but safeties have good longevity in this league. Rod Woodson and Charles Woodson can attest to that.

 

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NFC East

By Vincent Verhei

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Dallas Cowboys

Biggest need: secondary

The Cowboys' defense allowed an NFL-low 10.3 yards per completion in 2016, but that says less about their talent on hand and more about their conservative scheme, as they were next to last in opposing quarterbacks' completion rate and interception rate. Then the backfield lost three starters -- cornerbacks Brandon Carr and Morris Claiborne, along with strong safety Barry Church -- in free agency. Dallas did sign veteran Nolan Carroll to man one corner spot, but there is no good option on the roster to replace Church.

Quiet need: tight end

Jason Witten gained 673 receiving yards last year. That's not bad for his position -- just outside the top 10 among tight ends -- but it was Witten's lowest total since his rookie season of 2003. (Dallas' quarterback that season: Quincy Carter.) Further, for the second year in a row Witten failed to rank among Football Outsiders' top 20 tight ends in either total value or efficiency, despite starting all 16 games both seasons. Witten turns 35 in May, and his best days are clearly behind him. The Cowboys also have almost no depth behind Witten. Backups Geoff Swaim, Rico Gathers and Connor Hamlett have a combined total of eight NFL catches for 86 yards.

Not a need: running back

Ezekiel Elliott was the NFL's best running back as a rookie. His 1,631 rushing yards were by far the most in the league -- second-ranked Jordan Howard trailed Elliott by more than 300 yards. On top of that, Dallas' backup RBs could start for several teams. Alfred Morris has three 1,000-yard seasons under his belt, and Darren McFadden has two. Some youth here wouldn't hurt -- Morris will be 29 this season, McFadden 30 -- but no runner the Cowboys draft will be more than a change-of-pace back behind Elliott for several seasons.

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New York Giants

Biggest need: running back

There is hope for Paul Perkins, the Giants' fifth-round rookie out of UCLA. He ran for 102 yards in his only start last year, in Week 17 against Washington. On the other hand, Perkins gained just 30 yards on 10 carries in the playoff loss to Green Bay. There are good reasons Perkins was still available in the fifth round, and why he spent 16 weeks as Rashad Jennings' backup. The next-best backs on New York's roster are receiving specialist Shane Vereen and journeyman Shaun Draughn, who is now on his seventh team in seven NFL seasons.

 

 

Quiet need: offensive line

The running backs weren't the only problem with the New York running game last year. The Giants ranked 24th in adjusted line yards, Football Outsiders' stat that measures a team's ability to consistently gain good yardage. All five starters on the line will return in 2017, but the Giants should look to upgrade if they can. Ideally, they'd find a new face at left tackle, where Ereck Flowers has often looked woefully overmatched. The ninth overall pick in the 2015 draft, Flowers ranks fourth among tackles in total penalties over his first two seasons, and was tied for first with 13 in 2016.

Not a need: defense

The Giants were second behind Denver in Football Outsiders' defensive efficiency rankings -- third against the run, fourth against the pass -- and every significant starter is returning this fall except for Johnathan Hankins. They did have some problems stuffing runners and covering tight ends, so should a talented linebacker fall in their laps, that wouldn't be a bad thing. Otherwise, it's hard to find a weakness in either pass rush (the Giants generated pressure on 31.1 percent of opponents' dropbacks according to ESPN Stats & Info, fourth in the NFL) or coverage.

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Philadelphia Eagles

Biggest need: cornerback

One of the biggest needs in all of football. The Eagles must replace both starters here, with Leodis McKelvin cut and Nolan Carroll gone in free agency. If they had to play a game right now, their top corners would be Jalen Mills, a 2016 seventh-rounder who started two games as a rookie; Patrick Robinson, a sometimes-starter who is now on his fourth team in four seasons; Ron Brooks, who has started all of eight games in his five-year career; and Dwayne Gratz, a 27-year-old who played a total of 86 defensive snaps in six games for the Jaguars and Rams in 2016.

Quiet need: wide receiver

Yes, the Eagles added Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith as free agents, but if you think that solves all of the team's receiving problems, you don't realize just how inept Philadelphia's wideouts were in 2016. Only two offenses failed to produce a single wideout with value above replacement level last year: the 49ers and Eagles. Smith is moving from the former team to the latter, but he had worse advanced numbers than any Philly receiver in 2016, and finished as San Francisco's third wideout behind Jeremy Kerley and Quinton Patton. Jeffery is clearly the best receiver on this team, but that was also true in Chicago, and it's not as if the Bears were setting the league on fire.

Not a need: front seven

Philadelphia suffered some big free-agent losses here in Connor Barwin and Bennie Logan, but already has made moves to patch those holes by signing Chris Long and trading for Timmy Jernigan. Jernigan should be especially effective, teaming with Fletcher Cox to form one of the NFL's best interior pass-rushing tandems. The Eagles ranked highly last season in run defense, pressure rate and pass coverage against both tight ends and running backs, and there's little reason to think any of that will change in 2017.

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Washington Redskins

Biggest need: defensive line

With Chris Baker and Ricky Jean Francois moving on in free agency, Washington is hoping that two cheaper players who have spent most of their careers coming off the bench can blossom as starters. Stacy McGee, a sixth-round draft pick in 2013, started only nine games in his first three seasons with the Raiders, though he did start all nine of the games he played last season. Terrell McClain started 12 games as a rookie in Carolina in 2012 and 15 games in Dallas last year, but had zero starts on three teams in the four years in between. The Redskins are optimistic about what these two free agents can do, but the ceiling is awfully low, and a superstar up front would do wonders for the Washington defense.

Quiet need: wide receiver

The duo of DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon was excellent for years in D.C., but Washington was in no position to offer the $20 million in guaranteed money each player got from Tampa Bay and San Francisco, respectively. Washington has options to replace them, but all have question marks. Jamison Crowder has been a nice possession receiver in two years with the team, but at 5-foot-7 can he be more than a third wideout? Josh Doctson, a 2016 first-round pick, missed virtually his entire rookie season with an Achilles injury. Can he recover and live up to his draft status? Terrelle Pryor went over 1,000 yards last year on a Cleveland team with lousy quarterbacks. Can the late bloomer continue to blossom into a true No. 1 wideout?

Not a need: quarterback

Washington is clearly not yet in love with Kirk Cousins -- otherwise, he would have been signed to a long-term contract by now, but the Redskins aren't yet ready to move on from the quarterback either, which is why they used the franchise tag on him for the second year in a row. Cousins will make nearly $24 million in 2017, making him one of the highest-paid players in the league, but then will be a free agent again after the season. Washington's goal in 2017 is to establish once and for all whether Cousins is their man. Drafting a quarterback early would make no sense, because that will be a wasted pick if Cousins succeeds. Better to surround Cousins with as much talent as possible, so he will have no excuses if he fails.

 

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NFC North

​By Cain Fahey

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Chicago Bears

Biggest need: safety

This year's safety class is considered to be strong at the top. Malik Hooker and Jamal Adams are being discussed as top-10 picks at a time when safeties are rarely discussed in the top 10. In theory, the Bears have two viable starters at the position in Quintin Demps and Adrian Amos, but neither veteran is an impact player. If the Bears can add one of the top safeties in the draft, they can let Amos and Demps compete for the second starting spot.

Quiet need: cornerback

Former first-round pick Kyle Fuller didn't play at all in 2016, and he hadn't established himself as a quality starter in the two seasons before that either. He and Prince Amukamara project as the two best cornerbacks on the roster, as Amukamara signed a one-year deal in Jacksonville last year but his play didn't warrant a big-money extension. The Bears project to have good depth with Bryce Callahan, Marcus Cooper and Cre'Von LeBlanc offering different skill sets behind Amukamara and Fuller, but they need to add a true No. 1 cornerback.

Not a need: wide receiver

Wide receiver is regularly listed as a need for the Bears entering the draft, but the depth they boast at that spot makes it less of an issue than at other positions. Kevin White and Eddie Royal haven't been durable, but they can be quality starters if healthy. Markus Wheaton and Kendall Wright have durability question marks of their own but both are proven players at this level. Cameron Meredith and Deonte Thompson are better than their projected spots on the depth chart while Daniel Braverman has the potential to take a step forward in his second season. Sure, the Bears could use a quality starter to add to this group, but they'd be better off adding an impact player at tight end, defensive end or offensive tackle.

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Detroit Lions

Biggest need: linebacker

DeAndre Levy's career was permanently diverted away from Detroit by health issues, but he was the only impact player the Lions had at that level of the field. Their remaining linebackers are all reliable in executing their assignments and good enough tacklers, but they aren't going to make athletic plays to create turnovers or stop running backs behind the line of scrimmage. When Paul Worrilow is projected to start, you have a need at linebacker.

Quiet need: tight end/wide receiver

Anquan Boldin was an invaluable piece of the Lions' offense last season. He provided value as a blocker on screen plays while catching 67 passes during the regular season. The Lions don't have an obvious heir with the 36-year-old's skill set, so he could return at some point after the draft. In Jim Bob Cooter's offense the tight end is given every opportunity to feature in the passing game, but Eric Ebron hasn't rid himself of his inconsistencies to this point of his career. Whether by drafting a receiver or a receiving tight end, the Lions need to find a trustworthy third option behind Golden Tate and Marvin Jones.

Not a need: running back

Ameer Abdullah had only 23 touches in 2016 before being injured, but they were 23 explosive touches. Abdullah will be only 24 when he returns from injury at the start of the 2017 season and should be the Lions' lead back because of his athleticism and comfort executing as a runner and receiver. A fully healthy and effective Abdullah will be complemented by one of the best third-down backs in the league, Theo Riddick. If Abdullah isn't healthy, the Lions can still turn to the impressive Zach Zenner and Dwayne Washington as quality depth pieces.

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Green Bay Packers

Biggest need: offensive line

Lane Taylor and Don Barclay are expected to be the Packers' starting guards this season, assuming offensive tackle Jason Spriggs doesn't kick inside to win one of the jobs. Just 12 months ago the Packers had Josh Sitton and T.J. Lang in those spots, an All-Pro starting combination and arguably the best pair of pass-blocking guards in the league. The Packers could upgrade any of their interior spots with only tackles David Bakhtiari and Bryan Bulaga penciled in as quality starters.

Quiet need: wide receiver

Aaron Rodgers had to drag his receivers to their impressive production numbers last season. Jordy Nelson showed more life late in the year, but his athleticism looked limited compared to before his 2015 ACL injury and it put Rodgers under huge pressure throughout the regular season. Davante Adams failed to catch six accurate would-be touchdown passes, more than most teams. Adding Martellus Bennett at tight end will help but the Packers need more speed to open up the field for Rodgers. Instead, they face another season where their offense largely consists of Rodgers extending the play for abnormal amounts of time before someone eventually shakes free.

Not a need: quarterback

Rodgers remains the best quarterback in the NFL. Brett Hundley hasn't started a game and the Packers will happily keep it that way, but his athleticism makes him appealing as a backup for Green Bay. He has shown competence in the limited number of snaps that he has played, meaning all he has to do is avoid a disastrous preseason to hold onto the second quarterback spot.

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Minnesota Vikings

Biggest need: guard

The Vikings overpaid for two limited starting tackles in free agency. Neither Mike Remmers or Riley Reiff are high-quality players, but they will be dramatic upgrades over the men the Vikings relied upon last season. With Alex Boone at left guard and Joe Berger at center, the Vikings' only remaining spot to fill on the offensive line is at right guard, where Willie Beavers projects to start. Beavers is an untested prospect who left college with a limited skill set; as a fourth-round pick last year, he couldn't even make the Vikings' opening-day roster, though he eventually was promoted from the practice squad at midseason.

 

Quiet need: wide receiver

By trying to sign Alshon Jeffery in free agency, the Vikings revealed their lack of trust in Laquon Treadwell. Treadwell is in pole position for the third receiver spot on the depth chart after Cordarrelle Patterson's departure. Last year, Treadwell couldn't beat out Patterson for playing time as a first-round rookie, which in itself was a major red flag. The move for Jeffery may have failed, but it suggests the Vikings will try to find some way to give Treadwell a greater challenge than just beating out Jarius Wright for the No. 3 spot.

Not a need: cornerback

Xavier Rhodes enjoyed one of his best seasons in 2016 and remains the team's No. 1 cornerback. Rhodes was 13 when Terence Newman played his first NFL game, yet Newman remains a quality piece in the Vikings secondary. Former first-round pick Trae Waynes will likely push him hard for his starting spot in training camp. Waynes isn't built to be a slot cornerback, so Newman is more likely to fill that role after the departure of Captain Munnerlyn. That is, assuming former second-round pick Mackensie Alexander doesn't make a leap.

 

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NFC South

By Andrew Potter

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Atlanta Falcons

Biggest need: guard

The retirement of starting right guard Chris Chester makes Atlanta's biggest need fairly obvious. Even before that retirement, though, the Falcons should have been looking for an upgrade at this spot, as Chester was one of the weaker starting guards in the league. The team has met with several offensive line prospects, the most exciting of whom is Western Kentucky's Forrest Lamp. Lamp is likely to be drafted well before Atlanta's 31st overall selection, however, especially in a draft widely considered weak for offensive linemen. Lamp's teammate Darrell Williams is a potential late-round or undrafted addition, one of several prospects the Falcons could pick up in the later rounds who would have a chance to make a quick contribution.

Quiet need: defensive end

Vic Beasley Jr.'s 15.5 sacks led the NFL during the 2016 regular season, but the Falcons' defense as a whole ranked only 18th in sacks, 24th with a 5.4 percent adjusted sack rate, and 27th with a 24.5 percent pressure rate. The entire rest of the Falcons roster barely outdid Beasley's one-man contribution, adding only 18.5 sacks to his total. Veteran Dwight Freeney remains unsigned after contributing late last year, and Brooks Reed and Adrian Clayborn are competent enough players, but the Falcons are very likely to hunt for an upgrade in a deep draft class for edge rushers.

Not a need: running back

The Falcons have one of the deepest, most dynamic and versatile running back corps in the league, with Devonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman and even third-stringer Terron Ward all capable of being effective both running in the team's zone scheme and catching passes out of the backfield. The loss of fullback Patrick DiMarco to Buffalo will hurt in both the running and receiving game, but his is an absence this talented stable of backs ought to be capable of overcoming.

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Carolina Panthers

Biggest need: deep receiver

Whatever your perspective on Ted Ginn Jr.'s efficacy as a receiver, one attribute he does not lack is speed. Alas, that speed has now made its way to division rival New Orleans, leaving Cam Newton without his main deep threat. It's arguable that Ginn's production in Carolina owed more to Newton than to Ginn himself, but there's little doubt that Newton would welcome a replacement with similar speed. Kelvin Benjamin, Devin Funchess and Russell Shepard are not going to provide that. A large number of mock drafts have the Panthers taking a running back in the first round -- Leonard Fournette appears to be the favorite -- but the Panthers need the production of a talented deep threat receiver far more than they need a younger version of Jonathan Stewart.

Quiet need: defensive end

Julius Peppers is back in Carolina, and Charles Johnson never left. Unfortunately, neither is quite the player they were even a couple of years ago. Mario Addison is the star edge rusher on this roster now, but even he turns 30 at the start of next season. In the Ron Rivera era, the Panthers' defense is usually built around an excellent front seven featuring the likes of prime Johnson, Luke Kuechly, and Kawann Short. That front could now use another young prospect behind the current trio of veteran edge rushers, to keep the in-house production line running.

Not a need: linebacker

Luke Kuechly's top backup, A.J. Klein, has left to seek his fortune in New Orleans, but the Panthers still boast one of the best linebacker groups in the league with Kuechly, Thomas Davis and Shaq Thompson. All three are comfortable in coverage, run support and as occasional blitzers, lessening the need for the team to put Klein's replacement ahead of more pressing concerns.

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New Orleans Saints

Biggest need: defensive end

With Hau'oli Kikaha coming off a torn ACL, and no depth whatsoever behind him and Cameron Jordan, pretty much everybody agrees that the Saints should -- and will -- take a defensive end with the 11th overall pick. The only question, then, is which one. That depends in large part on who is still available -- the dream scenario has Derek Barnett falling to New Orleans -- but in a deep class of edge rushers the Saints are firmly expected to use both their top pick and at least one later selection addressing the biggest specific hole in their roster.

Quiet need: quarterback

Though not an immediate concern for 2017, the Saints front office has recently both raised and fielded questions concerning their long-term plans at quarterback. Drew Brees isn't getting any younger and is entering a contract year, Luke McCown has not been re-signed and if Chase Daniel is a front office's answer then it's probably asking the wrong question. That leaves 2015 third-round pick Garrett Grayson, whom very few people consider a future NFL starter.

To quote Sean Payton, the Saints are "always in the quarterback business ... and certainly you pay attention to it when your quarterback's older." Though New Orleans taking anything other than a defender with the 11th pick would be a surprise, there is an undercurrent of expectation that its other first-round selection (No. 32, acquired from New England in the Brandin Cooks trade) could be a quarterback if one of the upper-tier prospects slips to the end of the first round.

Not a need: offensive line

With Larry Warford added to a unit that was already one of the league's best in 2016, the Saints should again field a top-tier offensive line even if the injury bug continues to nibble at Terron Armstead. The projected starting five of Armstead, Andrus Peat, Max Unger, Warford and Zach Strief is certainly in the top quartile of the league (probably the top five), while Senio Kelemete provides solid depth if one of the top guys is hurt. With a deep group of receivers as well, the Saints should have no trouble fielding another excellent offense -- allowing the draft to be targeted at the ongoing defensive deficiencies.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Biggest need: safety

Tampa Bay was expected to be in play for the top safeties available in free agency, but instead only landed J.J. Wilcox from Dallas while losing established starter Bradley McDougald to Seattle. That, despite (or partly because of) the re-signing of Chris Conte, leaves safety as still the biggest hole on the Buccaneers roster. Fortunately, the draft class is considered deep at that position -- a fact that probably played into the team's free-agency decisions. What Tampa Bay needs most is a rangy deep safety -- all three safeties currently on the roster project as strong safeties -- and the best free safety available should probably be the team's top priority as its first-round pick approaches.

 

 

 

Quiet need: running back

Doug Martin hasn't been cut yet, but with his high salary, injury history and ongoing suspension, he remains a strong candidate to leave Tampa Bay. Charles Sims has an injury history of his own and Jacquizz Rodgers is a career backup with one strong season who has little chance of seeing a repeat. Some headlines flashed earlier in the offseason with suggestions that Adrian Peterson could be headed there, but those rumors haven't (yet) amounted to anything. It seems more likely that the Buccaneers will fill the potential hole in their backfield through the draft, most likely on Friday (Rounds 2-3).

Not a need: cornerback

Tampa Bay's top two cornerbacks are pretty much certain to be Vernon Hargreaves and Brent Grimes. That would leave nickel as the only spot in which a rookie cornerback could contribute, but Mike Smith's staff is happy with Josh Robinson, Javien Elliott and Jude Adjei-Barimah as depth behind the top tandem. Tampa Bay is far more likely to add safeties to its secondary than cornerbacks.

 

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NFC West

By Bryan Knowles

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Arizona Cardinals

Biggest need: quarterback

In 2015, Carson Palmer led the league in Football Outsiders' DYAR value metric on his way to his third Pro Bowl. In 2016, he slid down to just above replacement level. Palmer is projected to be the third-oldest starting quarterback in the NFL this season, and even if he rebounds some from last year, the end is still nigh. The quarterback of the future is likely not on the roster; neither Drew Stanton nor Zac Dysert are players to build a franchise around. It would be wise to draft a rookie to learn from Palmer and Bruce Arians for a year or two, rather than waiting and needing an immediate replacement.

Quiet need: inside linebacker

Kevin Minter is gone, off to Cincinnati. Deone Bucannon took a half step back from his very good 2015 season, though he's carving out quite the niche for himself as a "Money" 'backer. It would be nice to pair him with a more traditional linebacker in the middle, however. The Cardinals did sign Karlos Dansby, but he's turning 36 in November and is a short-term fix.

Not a need: interior run defense

Every position on Arizona's roster needs more depth, but the run defense, which finished third with 3.32 adjusted line yards per carry last season, should be in good shape. Yes, the loss of Calais Campbell will hurt, but it wasn't a one-man effort in the desert. Corey Peters soaks up blockers on the inside, allowing the players around him to score on the stat sheet. Robert Nkemdiche was a slow starter as a rookie, but improved as the year went on. Rodney Gunter and Xavier Williams are young players with lots of upside -- and more snaps are available with Campbell gone.

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Los Angeles Rams

Biggest need: wide receiver

Only one Rams wide receiver was above replacement level in 2016 by FO metrics, and that receiver, Kenny Britt, is now in Cleveland. Tavon Austin had the worst DVOA and DYAR of any receiver in football last season, and he's arguably the most talented player the Rams have at the position. Adding Robert Woods to the mix is a start, but not nearly enough to kick-start the worst offense in the league. The Rams have given Jared Goff some protection in the form of Andrew Whitworth; now it's time to give Goff someone to actually throw the ball to.

Quiet need: running back

We're tempted to list "quarterback" again, but writing off Goff after one season -- even after achieving the trifecta of finishing last in DYAR (-880), last in DVOA (-74.7 percent) and last in QBR (22.2) -- is premature. But the quarterback wasn't the only player to struggle for the 2016 Rams. Todd Gurley's nightmare campaign can be chalked up to the complete lack of a passing game and shoddy offensive line play, but even taking that into account, Gurley looked like a shadow of the player he was as a rookie. Even assuming a bounce-back year, the Rams still need depth at the position. Gurley was fifth in the league in rushing attempts in part because of a lack of faith in the players behind him. Benny Cunningham's departure leaves Lance Dunbar and Malcolm Brown behind Gurley. An upgrade would be nice.

Not a need: front seven

The Rams ranked first with just 3.19 adjusted line yards allowed per carry last season, thanks to a fantastic front seven. Aaron Donald might be the best defender in football, and Michael Brockers and Robert Quinn are excellent players as well. The Rams re-signed Dominique Easley, who has been very solid and is only 25 years old, and added Connor Barwin, who will get to play in a more familiar 3-4 linebacker role after being miscast as a 4-3 end in Philadelphia.

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San Francisco 49ers

Biggest need: quarterback

The 49ers opened this offseason with zero quarterbacks under contract, which isn't ideal. They've since signed Brian Hoyer, who is both familiar with Kyle Shanahan's offense and a very good value. They've also added Matt Barkley, who finished in the bottom 10 in DYAR last season, turning the ball over 10 times in his last three games. Hoyer will be a good option as a bridge player; now the 49ers need to figure out who he'll be a bridge to. The 49ers could use the No. 2 overall pick on a quarterback, or they could draft one in the middle rounds and keep their options open for 2018, when a deeper quarterback draft class or a potential Kirk Cousins deal could manifest itself.

2017 NFL DRAFT

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Quiet need: offensive tackle

Joe Staley is still a quality player, but he'll be 33 when the season starts and likely will be past his prime the next time San Francisco is competitive. The 49ers also have struggled to fill the right tackle spot since Anthony Davis' surprise retirement in 2015; Sports Info Solutions charted Trent Brown with 24 blown blocks last season, sixth most in the league. The 49ers were last in adjusted line yards and 30th in adjusted sack rate; improvements are necessary.

Not a need: running back

Honestly, every position on the 49ers could be considered a need, so it's a process of elimination to find the place where the need is lowest. Carlos Hyde was underrated by traditional stats last season, as he faced a tough slate of run defenses and the 49ers weren't exactly nursing many leads in 2016. Hyde finished sixth in rushing DYAR despite the poor quality of the team around him. Kyle Juszczyk might be the best fullback in football, both in terms of blocking and in catching the ball out of the backfield; he'll be a key addition for Shanahan's offensive goals. The addition of Tim Hightower as a third-down option even gives them a little bit of depth; he averaged 4.1 yards per carry last season while also hauling in 22 receptions in his first full season since suffering a multiyear knee injury.

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Seattle Seahawks

Biggest need: offensive tackle

Seattle had the worst offensive line of any playoff team last season. The Seahawks were 26th in adjusted line yards and 25th in adjusted sack rate, forcing them to adjust their offensive strategies as opposing defenses adjusted the alignment of Russell Wilson's ankles and knees. So far this offseason, they've taken a flier on Jaguars bust Luke Joeckel, who ended up playing left guard last season for Jacksonville. It appears the plan is to move him back to left tackle and to move Germain Ifedi from guard to right tackle, allowing George Fant to return to the bench to spend more time learning the position. Joeckel's track record at tackle is questionable at best, leaving this as Seattle's biggest need.

Quiet need: quarterback

No, Seattle doesn't need a replacement for Russell Wilson; even limited by injuries, Wilson was an above-average player. However, a porous offensive line could easily lead to your backup quarterback suddenly having to step in to replace an injured star. Trevone Boykin isn't really there yet; the undrafted TCU star has a lot he needs to improve on to be even a viable short-term starter. In all honesty, this is probably a better position to address with a veteran free agent than it is in the draft, but it's a need, notwithstanding.

Not a need: tight end

Jimmy Graham returned from a torn patellar tendon and had a phenomenal season, finishing second in DYAR with his highest total since 2013. Luke Willson would likely be a starter for a sizable number of teams; he has shown great hands and solid athleticism in relatively limited snaps. Seattle also just used a third-round pick on Nick Vannett last season; there's no room for another tight end on the roster even if the Seahawks wanted one.

[Viejo Dinosaur]

Philly going after McCaffrey....need a RB with great hands, speed, and return punts....this is Sproles last year....