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Cryptos are done


D-Hustle
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did some chart work, I wish I knew how to easily post them.

 

btc @  $6000 - give or take a little  depending on the timing  is major support. if it breaks that look out below. I'll probably roll the dice at that level and buy a decent position

 

that trend line is going to act like a magnet

Thanks TJD

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BTC can't go much below $5k just for mining support. If it drops below there, the entire market crumbles. If miners aren't profitable, everything fails.

 

So, if you have any faith in BTC not completely imploding and it hits your $6k levels, tjd, it's a good buy.

 

but once an operation is going, sometimes it keeps going even at what looks like a loss... gold mining operations were still going at 1000 even if their cash costs were 1200

 

if equipment is already bought, and someone is getting cheaper electricity, the cost/btc might be smaller than we think

 

i've always thought cryptos would be a victim of their own success... you can't just have a bazillion different coins that suck up all the earth's electricity to mine.

 

oil got down to unprofitable levels, alberta oil collapsed but we're still using oil/gas, so i would argue that miners being unprofitable could create more demand than supply (if supply slows) rather than the other way around... but that really is just background noise

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BTC can't go much below $5k just for mining support. If it drops below there, the entire market crumbles. If miners aren't profitable, everything fails.

 

So, if you have any faith in BTC not completely imploding and it hits your $6k levels, tjd, it's a good buy.

thats a good point

 

but commodities can and do stay below production costs for years

 

the current uranium market is a prime example. Spot price has been $20-$30 for a few years and the average "all in" production costs for miners is about $50. They need $70 for new mines. So that market is in liquidation. The weakest are already BK. The strongest have just now started cutting production. Then supply/demand fundementals takes over. High prices are the cure for high prices. Low prices are the cure for low prices. Then the cycle starts over again.  But BTC is so new it will be interesting to see if it follows all that.

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but once an operation is going, sometimes it keeps going even at what looks like a loss... gold mining operations were still going at 1000 even if their cash costs were 1200

 

if equipment is already bought, and someone is getting cheaper electricity, the cost/btc might be smaller than we think

 

i've always thought cryptos would be a victim of their own success... you can't just have a bazillion different coins that suck up all the earth's electricity to mine.

 

oil got down to unprofitable levels, alberta oil collapsed but we're still using oil/gas, so i would argue that miners being unprofitable could create more demand than supply (if supply slows) rather than the other way around... but that really is just background noise

Oil rig counts kept declining like crazy when the oil prices tanked. I certainly won't be mining to make an electric company richer if it became unprofitable. Takes all of 5 seconds to shut down my mining rigs. I would imagine shutting down oil rigs and gold mines has quite a bit more red tape.

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thats a good point

 

but commodities can and do stay below production costs for years

 

the current uranium market is a prime example. Spot price has been $20-$30 for a few years and the average "all in" production costs for miners is about $50. They need $70 for new mines. So that market is in liquidation. The weakest are already BK. The strongest have just now started cutting production. Then supply/demand fundementals takes over. High prices are the cure for high prices. Low prices are the cure for low prices. Then the cycle starts over again. But BTC is so new it will be interesting to see if it follows all that.

That's when the sharks eat the tadpoles. If those big companies can weather the storm they have market dominance when prices rebound. It takes all of one switch for people to compete again in this instance. When mining is unprofitable in cryptos, you're much better off simply buying the crypto speculatively than continuing to mine it at a loss. So, in that sense, they aren't really the same.

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exactly MF. Market leader in Uranium Cameco in Canada  just shut the worlds largest/highest grade uranium mine and is buying in the spot market to fulfill contracts. The spot U308 price is bound to go up. BTC here to stay, no doubt about it. Just got over extended like the nasdaq 18 years ago

 

zinc is another example. glencore cut production two years ago and zinc now in a raging bull market

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exactly MF. Market leader in Uranium Cameco in Canada just shut the worlds largest/highest grade uranium mine and is buying in the spot market to fulfill contracts. The spot U308 price is bound to go up. BTC here to stay, no doubt about it. Just got over extended like the nasdaq 18 years ago

 

zinc is another example. glencore cut production two years ago and zinc now in a raging bull market

Good stuff, tjd.

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well he became bullish on cryptocurrencies right near the top too

 

add bitcon to the mush list... which already included a whole city (alberta), a whole country (brexit), a presidential election (trump), and countless other games, seasons, careers, and lives

Correct. Knew I should have got out when he puffed out his poverty midget chest and was posting pics of his bitcoin deposits into 5crimes.
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