maron Posted August 16, 2014 Report Share Posted August 16, 2014 This is a checklist and status report of current theories that are being tracked, wagers placed on them, and when they will stop being used. 1. Fade Danny Duffy. Team totals over for opposition with Top 13 home run power in the league. 2. Unders TT of quarterbacks in the preseason with mobile quarterbacks 3. Over totals of teams that can exploit penchant for overcalling defensive passing penalties. Example is Brady against Philadelphia last night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maron Posted August 16, 2014 Author Report Share Posted August 16, 2014 #4 High rate of defensive penalty calling and the Overs all coming through on Friday. League will not react until Monday. Bet all overs for remaining Week Two preseason.. One unit each on every game over at the lines posted on the first line posted. For example Packers and Rams O 41 1/2 -110 [TABLE=class: wysiwyg_table_lines] [TR=class: wysiwyg_table_linesSubHeader] [TD=colspan: 8]Green Bay Packers at St. Louis Rams - Preseason Week 2[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: wysiwyg_table_linesRow] [TD]Sat 8/16[/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD]411 Green Bay Packers[/TD] [TD]+2½ -105+3 -130+2 +100+3½ -155+1½ +105[/TD] [TD]+120[/TD] [TD]o41½ -110o41 -120o42 -106o40½ -129o42½ -103[/TD] [TD]o19½ -110[/TD] [TD]u19½ -110[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: wysiwyg_table_linesRowBot] [TD]4:00PM[/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD]412 St. Louis Rams[/TD] [TD]-2½ -115-3 +110-2 -120-3½ +135-1½ -125[/TD] [TD]-140[/TD] [TD]u41½ -110u41 +100u42 -114u40½ +109u42½ -117[/TD] [TD]o22 -110[/TD] [TD]u22 -110[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: wysiwyg_table_linesSubHeader] [TD=colspan: 8]New York Giants at Indianapolis Colts - Preseason Week 2[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: wysiwyg_table_linesRow] [TD]Sat 8/16[/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD]413 New York Giants[/TD] [TD]+2 -110+1½ -103+2½ -117+1 +103+3 -142[/TD] [TD]+110[/TD] [TD]o41 -110o40½ -119o41½ -101o40 -126o42 +104[/TD] [TD]o19½ -110[/TD] [TD]u19½ -110[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: wysiwyg_table_linesRowBot] [TD]7:00PM[/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD]414 Indianapolis Colts[/TD] [TD]-2 -110-1½ -117-2½ -103-1 -123-3 +122[/TD] [TD]-130[/TD] [TD]u41 -110u40½ -101u41½ -119u40 +106u42 -124[/TD] [TD]o21½ -110[/TD] [TD]u21½ -110[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: wysiwyg_table_linesSubHeader] [TD=colspan: 8]Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys - Preseason Week 2[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: wysiwyg_table_linesRow] [TD]Sat 8/16[/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD]415 Baltimore Ravens[/TD] [TD]pk -120-1 -110-1½ -103-2 +103-2½ +110[/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD]o41½ -110o41 -120o42 -106o40½ -129o42½ -103[/TD] [TD]o21 -110[/TD] [TD]u21 -110[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: wysiwyg_table_linesRowBot] [TD]7:00PM[/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD]416 Dallas Cowboys[/TD] [TD]pk +100+1 -110+1½ -117+2 -123+2½ -130[/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD]u41½ -110u41 +100u42 -114u40½ +109u42½ -117[/TD] [TD]o20½ -110[/TD] [TD]u20½ -110[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: wysiwyg_table_linesSubHeader] [TD=colspan: 8]New York Jets at Dallas Cowboys - Preseason Week 2[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: wysiwyg_table_linesRow] [TD]Sat 8/16[/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD]417 New York Jets[/TD] [TD]+3 -105+3½ -130+2½ +120+4 -138+2 +127[/TD] [TD]+145[/TD] [TD]o41½ -110o41 -118o42 -105o40½ -126o42½ +100[/TD] [TD]o19½ -110[/TD] [TD]u19½ -110[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: wysiwyg_table_linesRowBot] [TD]7:00PM[/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD]418 Cincinnati Bengals[/TD] [TD]-3 -115-3½ +110-2½ -140-4 +118-2 -147[/TD] [TD]-165[/TD] [TD]u41½ -110u41 -102u42 -115u40½ +106u42½ -120[/TD] [TD]o22 -110[/TD] [TD]u22 -110[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: wysiwyg_table_linesSubHeader] [TD=colspan: 8]Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers - Preseason Week 2[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: wysiwyg_table_linesRow] [TD]Sat 8/16[/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD]419 Buffalo Bills[/TD] [TD]+2½ -105+3 -130+2 +101+3½ -155+1½ +106[/TD] [TD]+120[/TD] [TD]o40 -110o39½ -116o40½ -104o39 -122o41 +102[/TD] [TD]o19 -110[/TD] [TD]u19 -110[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: wysiwyg_table_linesRowBot] [TD]7:30PM[/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD]420 Pittsburgh Steelers[/TD] [TD]-2½ -115-3 +110-2 -121-3½ +135-1½ -126[/TD] [TD]-140[/TD] [TD]u40 -110u39½ -104u40½ -116u39 +102u41 -122[/TD] [TD]o21 -110[/TD] [TD]u21 -110[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: wysiwyg_table_linesSubHeader] [TD=colspan: 8]Miami Dolphins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Preseason Week 2[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: wysiwyg_table_linesRow] [TD]Sat 8/16[/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD]421 Miami Dolphins[/TD] [TD]+2½ -105+3 -130+2 +101+3½ -155+1½ +106[/TD] [TD]+120[/TD] [TD]o37½ -110o37 -118o38 -101o36½ -126o38½ +108[/TD] [TD]o17½ -110[/TD] [TD]u17½ -110[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: wysiwyg_table_linesRowBot] [TD]7:30PM[/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD]422 Tampa Bay Buccaneers[/TD] [TD]-2½ -115-3 +110-2 -121-3½ +135-1½ -126[/TD] [TD]-140[/TD] [TD]u37½ -110u37 -102u38 -119u36½ +106u38½ -128[/TD] [TD]o20 -110[/TD] [TD]u20 -110[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: wysiwyg_table_linesSubHeader] [TD=colspan: 8]Atlanta Falcons at Houston Texans - Preseason Week 2[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: wysiwyg_table_linesRow] [TD]Sat 8/16[/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD]423 Atlanta Falcons[/TD] [TD]+3 +100+3½ -125+2½ +125+4 -132+2 +131[/TD] [TD]+145[/TD] [TD]o40 -110o39½ -115o40½ -101o39 -119o41 +110[/TD] [TD]o17½ -120[/TD] [TD]u17½ +100[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: wysiwyg_table_linesRowBot] [TD]8:00PM[/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD]424 Houston Texans[/TD] [TD]-3 -120-3½ +105-2½ -145-4 +112-2 -151[/TD] [TD]-165[/TD] [TD]u40 -110u39½ -105u40½ -119u39 -101u41 -130[/TD] [TD]o21½ -110[/TD] [TD]u21½ -110[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: wysiwyg_table_linesSubHeader] [TD=colspan: 8]Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings - Preseason Week 2[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: wysiwyg_table_linesRow] [TD]Sat 8/16[/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD]425 Arizona Cardinals[/TD] [TD]+3 +100+3½ -125+2½ +125+4 -132+2 +131[/TD] [TD]+145[/TD] [TD]o38½ -110o38 -116o39 -106o37½ -122o39½ -102[/TD] [TD]o17½ -110[/TD] [TD]u17½ -110[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: wysiwyg_table_linesRowBot] [TD]8:30PM[/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD]426 Minnesota Vikings[/TD] [TD]-3 -120-3½ +105-2½ -145-4 +112-2 -151[/TD] [TD]-165[/TD] [TD]u38½ -110u38 -104u39 -114u37½ +102u39½ -118[/TD] [TD]o21 -110[/TD] [TD]u21 -110 [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LCD Posted August 16, 2014 Report Share Posted August 16, 2014 I did overs last night. And doing the same tonight and Monday. The NFL shouldn't come down too hard in response. Scoring is better for the league. Have to see how much of Week 1 adjustment is going to be made for the hurry up offenses. Eagles ran 81 plays last night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maron Posted August 16, 2014 Author Report Share Posted August 16, 2014 I did overs last night. And doing the same tonight and Monday. The NFL shouldn't come down too hard in response. Scoring is better for the league. Have to see how much of Week 1 adjustment is going to be made for the hurry up offenses. Eagles ran 81 plays last night. They are pro scoring I agree but the Pats Eagles was hard to watch. No flow.... http://thegamblingforum.com/veteran-qbs-and-the-over-on-saturday-night-pre-season-week-two/ I like these two overs the best but I just might bet .1 unit on every over to give this theory a little bit of a boost Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maron Posted August 16, 2014 Author Report Share Posted August 16, 2014 Okay lets get some proper tracking of the overs today for this test. I will test out the table function tomorrow 0-0 Gb over 41 1/2 -110 NYG over 41 -110 Balt Over 41 1/2 -110 NYJ over 41 1/2 -110 (No wager for me personally but only for tracking this theory) Buffalo over 40 -110 Miami over 37 1/2 -110 Atlanta over 40 -110 Arizona over 38 1/2 -110 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maron Posted August 17, 2014 Author Report Share Posted August 17, 2014 Okay lets get some proper tracking of the overs today for this test. I will test out the table function tomorrow 0-0 Gb over 41 1/2 -110 NYG over 41 -110 Balt Over 41 1/2 -110 NYJ over 41 1/2 -110 (No wager for me personally but only for tracking this theory) Buffalo over 40 -110 Miami over 37 1/2 -110 Atlanta over 40 -110 Arizona over 38 1/2 -110 Project for Blanket Overs on Saturday 4-4 -0.40 http://thegamblingforum.com/veteran-qbs-and-the-over-on-saturday-night-pre-season-week-two/ Had NYG and Balt Overs for 2-0 +2.0 Will Post the lines for Sunday a little later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maron Posted August 17, 2014 Author Report Share Posted August 17, 2014 FIP Equation Play Chris Young Seattle Fip-Era Difference is over 1.00 Tigers are Top 10 in team Hrs Tigers draw walks well Play is TT over 4 -120 for Detroit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sharp Square Posted August 17, 2014 Report Share Posted August 17, 2014 Great thread MM ! Will ride along with Det TT over 4 :popcorn: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maron Posted August 17, 2014 Author Report Share Posted August 17, 2014 Great thread MM ! Will ride along with Det TT over 4 :popcorn: Thanks. This is by no means locks. I exercise and as I do so, my mind is free to pursue thoughts like these. I used to just let them go but in an effort to get organized, I will compile some of them here and keep a running tally. Small wagers so I do not go crazy with any old thought but not large enough where I suddenly find myself out of the game if it does not pan out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maron Posted August 17, 2014 Author Report Share Posted August 17, 2014 Note : On FIP Play I got to catch two innings in which the Tigers were at bat in 4th and 5th. Pitcher is going deep in the pitch count total. They have hits against him. Even got a runner on third with one out. All fly ball outs but the one was not deep enough to score the runner. The sixth will be telling but either the day is walking between rain drops or this FIP is not starting good. Going to do a larger sample size of course but it is always good to win the first one Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maron Posted August 17, 2014 Author Report Share Posted August 17, 2014 Great thread MM ! Will ride along with Det TT over 4 :popcorn: Sorry man it was not even close. They got him out after the 100 pitch count...he gave up a lot of fly balls....but no power...CF ran down Cabrera's hit... 0-1 -1.20 U I will continue wagering these til the end of the year...word of caution..it is a theory I am testing out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sharp Square Posted August 17, 2014 Report Share Posted August 17, 2014 Sorry man it was not even close. They got him out after the 100 pitch count...he gave up a lot of fly balls....but no power...CF ran down Cabrera's hit... 0-1 -1.20 U I will continue wagering these til the end of the year...word of caution..it is a theory I am testing out Oh don't be its gambling and we'll win and lose some. Hell i played Toronto today as well and that was quite horrible as well. And we move on to the next one. I will continue to keep and eye on these and play some along the way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maron Posted August 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted August 18, 2014 No elaborate theory on this one. The unders have been good in the CFL this season. Take the two most dominant defenses in the west and still go under... Calgary Ottawa Under 48 -110 Edmonton Toronto under 48 1/2 -110 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maron Posted August 20, 2014 Author Report Share Posted August 20, 2014 Sorry man it was not even close. They got him out after the 100 pitch count...he gave up a lot of fly balls....but no power...CF ran down Cabrera's hit... 0-1 -1.20 U I will continue wagering these til the end of the year...word of caution..it is a theory I am testing out Lets see if Danny Duff and the FIP train can get back on track or even started. TT Colorado Over 4 -125 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sharp Square Posted August 20, 2014 Report Share Posted August 20, 2014 Lets see if Danny Duff and the FIP train can get back on track or even started. TT Colorado Over 4 -125 This is a very interesting one i was looking at the game total of over 9.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maron Posted August 20, 2014 Author Report Share Posted August 20, 2014 Seeing where this goes until the end of the year to whether or not to add it to the app. Football one is close to being done...trying it out on BSU and Ole Miss next week Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TNVOLFAN Posted August 20, 2014 Report Share Posted August 20, 2014 Be interesting to see how this pans out....Good Luck mighty Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sharp Square Posted August 20, 2014 Report Share Posted August 20, 2014 Seeing where this goes until the end of the year to whether or not to add it to the app. Football one is close to being done...trying it out on BSU and Ole Miss next week Will def be keeping an eye out for football version. Thanks for taking time to post it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maron Posted August 21, 2014 Author Report Share Posted August 21, 2014 Lets see if Danny Duff and the FIP train can get back on track or even started. TT Colorado Over 4 -125 Colorado got 5 runs Record is now 1-1 (-0.20 Units) This one was encouraging. His penchant for fly balls and HR's finally saw the FIP become closer than the ERA. Only one walk but the big hit was the grand slam. A welcome cash off of Duff Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maron Posted August 21, 2014 Author Report Share Posted August 21, 2014 App 2014 v1.01 says Eagles and Steeler goes under 50 was what I got Line just dipped to 49 at offshore Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sharp Square Posted August 21, 2014 Report Share Posted August 21, 2014 Colorado got 5 runs Record is now 1-1 (-0.20 Units) This one was encouraging. His penchant for fly balls and HR's finally saw the FIP become closer than the ERA. Only one walk but the big hit was the grand slam. A welcome cash off of Duff good call Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maron Posted August 21, 2014 Author Report Share Posted August 21, 2014 good call just the system...add Simon (Reds) to this list for 1 unit. Add alvarez (Miami) to this list for .5 units Remember qualifier of top 13 in HR's or playing at Coors field. Alvarez is tomorrow...will post line when it comes up Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pokerjoe Posted August 21, 2014 Report Share Posted August 21, 2014 Seeing where this goes until the end of the year to whether or not to add it to the app. Football one is close to being done...trying it out on BSU and Ole Miss next week What does this refer to? I didn't see any CFB reference previously ITT. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegaseagles Posted August 26, 2014 Report Share Posted August 26, 2014 is there goiign to be a running total for the wins and losses for each trend???? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maron Posted August 30, 2014 Author Report Share Posted August 30, 2014 is there goiign to be a running total for the wins and losses for each trend???? Yes..I have them...little good since I did not post the wagers before events happened...the post I made for the last two i did not confirm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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