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Mariota vs. Winston (Which QB Has the Stuff to Join NFL's Elite Going Into 3rd Season?)


Mike75
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Either Marcus Mariota or Jameis Winston is going to have a Derek Carr-like breakthrough this season.

 

OK, maybe both will. Maybe neither will. But for purposes of quarterback prognostication, let's play by Highlander rules. You can choose just one of them to shape your prop-bet investments, lead your fantasy team or just talk about at work in August so you can look like a genius in December.

 

Here's a breakdown to determine which third-year quarterback makes the leap from promising prospect to MVP candidate. A deep dive into their supporting casts, franchise philosophies and 2017 schedules makes it clear that while both Mariota and Winston are poised to improve, only one has the elements in place to be anointed the Next Big Thing.

 

The Quarterbacks

 

At the risk of defying quarterback-analysis tradition by not crashing your browser with GIFs and taking a protractor to each passer's release angle to demonstrate my dazzling knowledge of scouting minutiae, let's keep things simple. Both Mariota and Winston are about where third-year quarterbacks need to be entering camp, from a holistic standpoint.

 

Football Outsiders ranked Mariota 13th in the NFL in its DYAR (defense-adjusted yards above replacement) metric and Winston 15th. ESPN's QBR ranked them 12th (Mariota) and 13th (Winston), separated by a mere 0.2 points. Mariota gets the edge as a rusher but broke his leg late in the 2016 season and was limited in OTAs, as reported by Jason Wolf of The Tennessean. Winston is more interception-prone but has been healthier throughout his brief career than Mariota and was asked to do far more for his offense.

 

At the risk of armchair-quarterback psychoanalysis (the only thing worse than nitpicking scout-jargon GIFs), both quarterbacks have done enough in their first two seasons to meet the NFL thresholds for professionalism/work habits/leader sauce. Both showed improvement in their second seasons, led their teams to playoff near-misses last campaign and have tight haircuts, which should please Michael Vick, at least.

 

Each has each positioned himself to have a breakout third season. The question now becomes: Which team is better built to support its young quarterback?

 

Receiving corps

 

Both Winston and Mariota will enjoy significant upgrades to receiving corps that left something to be desired last year.

 

Winston targeted Mike Evans a league-high 175 times last year. While Evans delivered the goods (1,321 yards, 12 touchdowns), opponents schemed to take him away late in the season. Vincent Jackson looked ready for a front-office position even before suffering an October knee injury, leaving Winston without a true second option. Adam Humphries was OK as Cosplay Julian Edelman, and tight end Cameron Brate was steady before injuring his back in the season finale. But Winston got little from his reserve receivers or running backs.

 

Newcomer DeSean Jackson should help this year. He remains one of the league's most dangerous deep threats: According to Football Outsiders Almanac, Jackson caught 16 of 30 passes targeted to him 20-plus yards downfield last season for 579 yards, four touchdowns and five defensive pass-interference penalties that netted 169 yards. He should provide similar production while drawing safeties away from Evans and letting Humphries concentrate on a King of Slots role.

 

Further, rookie tight end O.J. Howard is a massive talent upgrade over Brate, though both will probably play a role in the passing game, and scouting combine marvel and third-round pick Chris Godwin gives defenses someone to worry about in four-receiver packages.

 

In sum, Jackson's speed, Evans' catch radius, Howard's physicality and the mix-and-match possibilities elsewhere should create mismatches galore.

 

Mariota's receiving corps last year also was limited, consisting of holdovers Kendall Wright and Delanie Walker, castoff veteran third receivers from other teams (Rishard Matthews, Harry Douglas) and late-draft small-school rookies (Tajae Sharpe). Walker showed that is getting better as he ages, and Matthews was more effective than advertised. But everyone else played as expected, leaving Mariota without a true go-to receiver.

 

Tennessee tried to address the issue in the offseason. Fifth overall pick Corey Davis was a mid-major touchdown machine at Western Michigan. He'll be groomed as the top possession receiver and red-zone threat, while third-round pick Taywan Taylor, another mid-major draft crush, will likely be the shifty slot playmaker.

 

The Titans used two-tight end sets a league-leading 43 percent of the time, according to Football Outsiders Almanac, so toolsy Florida International product Jonnu Smith may also play a significant role.

 

Titans GM Jon Robinson clearly loves his small-school receivers, but asking three of them to ramp up and become immediate role players may be a tall order early in the season (especially with Davis coming off ankle surgery). So the edge here goes to Winston, whose goody bag is full of established players and SEC standouts.

 

Running game and protection

 

Mariota is supported by DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry, the best running back 1-2 punch in the NFL, as well as one of the league's best young offensive lines. Tennessee's "exotic smashmouth" system has kept both his attempt totals and turnover rates low early in his career; it's a trade-off that may hurt Mariota's fantasy value but benefits his long-range growth.

 

Winston's situation is more complicated. Doug Martin is suspended until Week 4 for violating the league's substance-abuse policy. And that comes after he missed half the 2016 season with a hamstring injury before returning to average 2.9 yards per carry in the second half of the year.

 

The Buccaneers organization couldn't stop gushing about Martin during OTAs, laying it on suspiciously thick at times. While Martin may be healthier and more dialed in than he was last year, no amount of sunshine-blowing will make him available in September.

 

Backup Charles Sims is returning from knee and back injuries that shelved him last year, while 2017 fifth-round pick Jeremy McNichols is recovering from offseason shoulder surgery. The Bucs were reduced to plucking players from other teams' practice squads and giving them carries late last year. They run the risk of having to do the same this season.

 

Tampa Bay's offensive line was poor by any measure last season. In run blocking, the Bucs averaged 3.6 yards per carry and posted awful short-yardage conversion rates. In pass protection, they ranked 30th in pressure rate, according to Football Outsiders.

 

In penalties, three linemen drew 10-plus flags. And in the eyeball test, Pro Football Focus ranked them 30th. The plan in Tampa is to improve from within, with guard Ali Marpet possibly moving to center, former Seahawks guard J.R. Sweezy returning from a back injury to claim a starting job and left tackle Donovan Smith improving from terrible to competent in his third season.

 

It's never a good sign when your offensive line improvement plan involves an injured former Seahawks guard. That gives Mariota a huge advantage when it comes to protection and rushing support.

 

 

Schedule and opponents

 

Normally, the AFC South is the ideal place to take off the baby bumpers for a young quarterback. But the division looks less like the Sun Belt Conference this year than in previous years, and Tennessee faces a pretty tough schedule, particularly at the start of the season.

 

The Titans open against the Raiders, catch a relative break at Jacksonville (though the Jaguars pass defense looks pretty good this year), then host the Seahawks before traveling to Houston and Miami. Things cool down a little bit after that, but Mariota could face a rocky start that leaves the team below .500 entering the middle of the season.

 

Winston faces his own slate of challenging early defenses: the Dolphins at Miami and the Vikings, Giants, Patriots and Cardinals in the first six weeks. Plus, the NFC South is a tougher division than the AFC South. The potential for high-scoring duels against Matt Ryan, Drew Brees and Cam Newton remains high, though all three divisional foes look better on defense this year than last.

 

Let's call this a push, with the major takeaway that tough early-season slates may lead to slow starts and "What's wrong with Mariota/Winston?" headlines in early October.

 

 

Coach, organization, intangibles

 

Buccaneers coach Dirk Koetter and general manager Jason Licht made their share of mistakes last year, from Licht trading up to draft kicker Roberto Aguayo to Koetter getting a little too clever before halftime against the Cardinals and turning a 10-0 deficit into a 24-0 chasm.

 

This offseason brought its own set of questions, starting with the lack of investment on the offensive line and at running back. Koetter told ESPN's Jenna Laine during OTAs that he wants the Bucs to be a "badass football team," sounding more like a junior high guidance counselor trying to be edgy than an NFL coach with a coherent vision. A visit from the HBO Hard Knocks television crew does not pass the "What Would Bill Belichick Do?" test for franchise improvement.

 

In Tennessee, Mike Mularkey's "exotic smashmouth" offense gives the Titans direction and personality, and trading down in the 2015 draft brought the Titans an influx of top prospects over the last two seasons. The Titans may not have championship-caliber talent yet, but all of the franchise's oars are paddling in the same direction.

 

Last year's Titans melted every time they flew to close to actual success, losing to the Colts and Jaguars late in the year as if it were their duty to maintain the balance of AFC South mediocrity. They are playoff "sleeper" darlings because it is easy to project them taking the next step as the whole roster improves and matures.

 

The Titans look so much like last year's Raiders that it's easy to give Mariota the nod here.

 

Summary

 

Winston now has one of the most exciting, multidimensional receiving corps in the NFL, a backfield full of injuries and questions and an offensive line that's mediocre at best. He plays in a division full of great quarterbacks and opponents that always seem one year away from building outstanding defenses.

 

Mariota now has an upgraded (though inexperienced) receiving corps to pair with a great backfield and offensive line. The Titans system is creative but conservative, and there are several reasons to expect a bumpy early season (tough foes, small-school rookie receivers adjusting) that may suppress both Mariota's stats and the Titans' team-on-the-rise aspirations.

 

The balanced Titans offense plays to Mariota's strengths as a rusher, rollout passer and ball distributor. Opening up the Buccaneers offense without improving the pass protection, however, may play to Winston's greatest weakness: heaving interceptions in the name of making things happen.

 

Winston appears poised for a long season of running for his life and throwing deep: 4,500 yards and 30-plus touchdowns, perhaps, but with 20 interceptions and 40-plus sacks. Mariota may max out closer to last year's 3,426 yards and 26 touchdowns but with fewer sacks, fewer interceptions and greater efficiency (plus a few big runs).

 

Factor in the Titans' more coherent organizational direction, and Mariota is more likely than Winston to take that proverbial next step into the playoffs and "elite quarterback" conversation.

 

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Good stuff

 

Thanks!!  I can't wait for the season to start. I'm all about one sport the NFL. Growing up i was into basketball,baseball and football but by the time i turned 21 in the mid 1990's i had gotten to the point where i was strictly football. For a long time basketball was my thing especially Larry Bird i loved watching him as a youngster growing up. When the 1999 NFL season rolled around i had made the Tennessee Titans my fave team it was their first season and they made it to the Super Bowl. Interestingly enough in 2018 the Titans will celebrate their 20th anniversary as well as unveil new uniforms/jerseys.

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Guest boatboatboat

You do have a passion and it shows.

I am thankful you post here.

 

It's enjoyable to see the front page with a Mike thread.

 

Tgf knows it will be sports related

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You do have a passion and it shows.

I am thankful you post here.

 

It's enjoyable to see the front page with a Mike thread.

 

Tgf knows it will be sports related

 

Thanks!!

 

Yes i love the NFL a lot its loads of fun and excitement. Year round i'm into it and when its the offseason i start looking at all the teams seeing who is better or not. You have free agency and after that the draft followed by training camp.

 

I've been watching NFL football since 1985 the year the Bears won it all with their 46 defense. I still have the VHS i recorded it.

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Miami beat that bears team.

I'm a dolphins fan

 

I still remember watching that game it was on a Monday night and the Dolphins made damn sure that the Bears would not go undefeated.

 

Marino is one of the best QB ever. To this day i don't think the Dolphins have gotten a true franchise QB. Lots of folks like Tannehill but he has limited potential sort of like Alex Smith.

 

My dad always use to tell me how he won every bet during the 1972 season because he bet on the Dolphins who were his favorite team back then and they were undefeated in '72.

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Guest boatboatboat

Dan Marino best PASSER ever.

 

But as I get older i have come to accept that he was limited in some aspects of game.

 

I'll take a John elay in his prime over anyone

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Dan Marino best PASSER ever.

 

But as I get older i have come to accept that he was limited in some aspects of game.

 

I'll take a John elay in his prime over anyone

 

I like Joe Montana a lot but he also had a much better team around him than Dan Marino. If Marino had some of those real good 49er defenses he would've won some rings.

 

Then you had a guy like Phil Simms who won a couple championships all because of Lawrence Taylor and the defense.

 

John Elway went to 5 Super Bowls and won his last 2 and yeah he was very clutch just like Montana.

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Mike, do you copy and paste all that or are those write-ups yours?

 

I would say about 50/50 half the time i copy and paste the other half i write my own stuff. I can literally think up things at the drop of a hat sometimes even long articles i just have a stream of words its fairly effortless. I've always had this dream of becoming a writer but i never went through with it.

 

Here soon i'll write something and throw it out there as an example.

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Growing up we didn't have an NFL team that played in Tennessee so we had to pick a team and my favorite was the Los Angeles Raiders. I lived in Memphis and they would always finish runner up in the quest for a new franchise. I was devastated each time we barely missed out. Eventually Baltimore,Jacksonville,St. Louis,etc. were all getting new franchises. I put up with this for years......

 

Then i finally had a new team to root for in 1999 Tennessee had a new team the Titans that would play in Nashville.

 

I can honestly say they surpassed my expectations from the start. With teams like the Cleveland Browns,N.Y. Jets,etc. i was worried about sucking for a long time.

 

I was a diehard from the moment the Tennessee Titans started playing in 1999.

 

From 1999 through 2011 the first thirteen years watching the Titans were truly awesome.

 

During that span they had 3 seperate 13 win seasons the only other teams to do it were New England and Indianapolis.

 

The 13-3 Titans were a few extra seconds from tying the Super Bowl vs Rams in '99,the next year a blocked FG and turnover led to a loss to Baltimore in 2000 and what most folks don't know is Titans had the number 1 defense not Baltimore that year ruined a 13-3 season.

 

In 2002 they were back in the AFC Championship vs. Oakland and lost.

 

2003 they lost 17-14 in playoffs what was one of the coldest games in Patriots history and had they won the Titans would've been in the AFC Championship again.

 

2007 and 2008 they had one of the best defenses in history especially 2008 they went 13-3 and even destroyed the Steelers during the 2008 season. In the postseason Titans lost 13-10 to Baltimore due to turnovers otherwise Titans dominated the game.

 

In 2011 they went 9-7 with Matt Hasselbeck although they drafted QB Jake Locker who turned out to be a bust.

 

2012 was where it all went downhill the Titans had hired a GM who couldn't draft or bring in free agents and QB Locker was doing his best but they went 6-10.

 

2013 Locker lost a few games but if they would've stuck with Ryan Fitzpatrick they might've had a winner year but instead went with Locker early in the year finished 7-9.

 

2014 they were 2-14 and 3-13 in 2015 and those were easily the worst moments in the franchises history. Because of Locker being a bust and the GM not being worth a damn.

 

Before departing the ex-GM drafted Mariota who played well his first year but had no weapons or special players,

 

In 2016 the Titans got a new GM Jon Robinson as well as QB Marcus Mariota. Robinson learned from the winningest coach/GM around in Bill Belichick.

 

Robinson spent a decade there in New England.

 

With two offseasons Robinson has totally turned around what was a 2-14/3-13 team in 2015.

 

2016 was Robinson and Mariota's first season together was a winning one at 9-7.

 

So lets see what will happen in 2017................

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  • 2 weeks later...

Jameis Winston vs. Marcus Mariota ,Who is better?

 

For every star quarterback taken atop the draft, there has been a bust as well.

 

Bledsoe and Mirer. Manning and Leaf. McNabb and a Couch. Luck and Griffin.

 

Winston and Mariota are the first QB tandem drafted that have both looked good which is against the norm as one usually prevails while the other busts.

 

As far as Winston vs. Mariota overall it is close.

 

Winston looked better in 2015 while Mariota looked better in 2016.

 

Both the Titans and Bucs have set out to support their quarterbacks by investing in their offensive lines and ground attacks. Tennessee added DeMarco Murray and drafted Derrick Henry. Tampa Bay retained Doug Martin.

 

As far as offensive lines go in 2015 Tampa drafted two linemen in the second round LT Donovan Smith and C Ali Marpet,the year before that they drafted LG Kevin Pamphile. Meanwhile three out of the last four years the Titans drafted linemen in the first round including tackles Taylor Lewan and Jack Conklin.

 

Looking at their wideouts the Titans have one of the best tight ends in the league Delanie Walker along with receivers Rishard Matthews,free agent additon Eric Decker and draft picks Corey Davis/Taywan Taylor. Bucs have tight end OJ Howard and receivers Mike Evans and Desean Jackson Jackson.

 

In 2016, they led their teams from 1-3 starts to the brink of playoff contention. Tampa Bay finished with its first winning season since 2010; Tennessee its first since 2011.

 

Comparing their first two seasons combined overall….

Mariota: 27 games ,506 of 821 passes completed, 61.6%, 6244 yards, 45TD/19INT, 93.8 passer rating.

Winston: 32 games, 657 of 1102 passes completed,59.6%, 8132 yards,50TD/33INT, 85.2 passer rating.

 

Looking at the first two years overall Mariota leads Winston in pretty much every single category.

 

Below is for 2016 and Mariota was better in pretty much every single category except for one.

 

As for passer rating Mariota 95.6 was 10th best while Winston 86.1 ranked 21st overall. Yards per attempt Mariota 7.6 was ranked 9th best while Winston 7.2 was 16th overall.

 

TD percentage Mariota 5.8 ranked 4th best while Winston 4.9 ranked 12th. TD/INT ratio Mariota 2.9 was ranked 8th while Winston 1.6 ranked 23rd.

 

Third down yards per attempt Mariota 8.6 was ranked 3rd while Winston 7.5 ranked 12th. Third down completion percentage Mariota 61.3 was ranked 11th while Winston 59.3 ranked 16th.

 

Pass rating under pressure Mariota 72.6 was ranked 12th while Winston 70.0 ranked 15th. Completion percentage under pressure Mariota 41.1  was ranked 29th while Winston 48.7 ranked 15th.

 

Deep pass completions Mariota had 26 Winston had 22. Deep pass accuracy percentage Mariota had 41.9% and Winston had 34.8%. Deep pass passer rating Mariota had 101.2% and Winston had 71.0%

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Winston

 

Mariota will blow out knee

 

Honestly i am worried about Mariota and his health until he can play a couple seasons of injury free football.

 

There have been others that started off like Mariota....

 

Matt Stafford played 10 games in 2009 and 3 games in 2010 however since 2011 he has played 6 straight seasons without missing a game.

 

Mariota played 12 games in 2015 and then 15 in his second year 2016.

 

If both are healthy from here on out give me the dual threat Mariota.

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Mariota In first two years has been firmly in top ten in numerous categories has played well enough to set several records as well....

 

*The Tennessee Titans rank 1st in Red Zone efficiency at 72%. In his two years in the league QB Marcus Mariota has thrown 33 TD and 0 INT during that span in the RZ.

 

*As for the 2016 season in passer rating Mariota 95.6 was 10th,Yards per attempt 7.6 Mariota was ranked 9th,Third down yards per attempt Mariota 8.6 was ranked 3rd,TD percentage Mariota 5.8 ranked 4th,TD/INT ratio Mariota 2.9 was ranked 8th.

 

*Only Tom Brady 6.1 and Aaron Rodgers 6.0 have a higher TD rate than Mariota (5.5%) since he entered the NFL in 2015.

 

*As of Thanksgiving Day 2016, Mariota is the first QB in modern NFL history with six four-TD performances in his first 22 career games. No other QB had more to start a career.

 

*Mariota named AFC Offensive Player of the Month November 2016

 

*Mariota is first player NFL history with 250+ pass yds, 100+ rush yds & 3 TD passes in a game.

 

*On passes of 20+ yards in 2016 Mariota had 41 completions of 20-plus yards. Only Atlanta’s Matt Ryan and New Orleans’ Drew Brees had more.

 

*Mariota led Titans to 35 points in one half against Green Bay the most scored in one half in 2016.

 

*Mariota named NFL Player of the Week for Week 10 vs Green Bay after throwing for 300 yards and four touchdowns in a 47-25 win over the Green Bay Packers.

 

*Mariota has 9 games with 100 passer rating/multiple TD’s only Dan Marino,Russell Wilson and Kurt Warner had more in their first 2 seasons at QB.

 

*Mariota is the first QB in NFL history to have 3 games with 70.0+ completion %, at least 4 TD passes and no INTs in his first 2 seasons.

 

*Mariota’s 87-yard touchdown run against Jax was the longest run in the NFL in 2015 and the second-longest run by an NFL quarterback in NFL history.

 

*Mariota’s four games with three or more touchdowns tied Peyton Manning (1998) as the most ever by a rookie QB.

 

*Was first rookie in NFL history with 2 games with 4+ TD passes & 0 INTs in a season.

 

*Out of the top 25 games by a QB in 2015 Mariota had three of those games. The only other QB in the league that had that many was Russell Wilson who also had three.

 

*Mariota set franchise records for a rookie QB most touchdowns (19), completions (230), passing yards (2,818) and passing attempts (370) in his first NFL season despite missing four games. The next season Mariota set a new Titans franchise record with 25 TD passes in a season breaking Steve McNair’s former record of 24.

 

*Prior to Marcus Mariota, the last player to record TDs of at least 40 yds passing, rushing & receiving in same season was Walter Payton in 1983.

 

*Mariota also holds an NFL record for touchdown passes in his first three games with eight.

 

*Mariota named NFL Player of the Week twice in his first six starts.

 

*Mariota named NFL Rookie of the Month September 2015

 

*Mariota and Titan’s 28-point margin of victory at Tampa with 2015 Week 1 rookie starting QB was largest since 1948. Mariota was first rookie in NFL history to throw a perfect game in his first game as well. He was also the youngest ever to throw 4 TD’s in a game and only one to do it on his 1st game.

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Guest pocketrockets

I would take Mariota over Winston. Like Mike said, Mariota pretty much ahead in every category.

+1. Was gonna say this.

 

Mariotta not an alleged rapist either.

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Quarterback Rating
Rank  Name  Team  G  QB Rating  Att  Comp  Comp %  Pass Yds  Yd/A  Yd/G  TD  Int
1  M. Ryan  Atl  16  117.1  534  373  69.9  4944  9.26  309.0  38  7
2  T. Brady  NE  12  112.2  432  291  67.4  3554  8.23  296.2  28  2
3  D. Prescott  Dal  16  104.9  459  311  67.8  3667  7.99  229.2  23  4
4  A. Rodgers  GB  16  104.2  610  401  65.7  4428  7.26  276.8  40  7
5  D. Brees  NO  16  101.7  673  471  70.0  5208  7.74  325.5  37  15
6  S. Bradford  Min  15  99.3  552  395  71.6  3877  7.02  258.5  20  5
7  K. Cousins  Was  16  97.2  606  406  67.0  4917  8.11  307.3  25  12
8  D. Carr  Oak  15  96.7  560  357  63.8  3937  7.03  262.5  28  6
9  A. Luck  Ind  15  96.4  545  346  63.5  4240  7.78  282.7  31  13
10  M. Mariota  Ten  15  95.6  451  276  61.2  3426  7.60  228.4  26  9

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