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ESPN INSIDER:--Looking at the early Super Bowl Line


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[h=1]Analyzing the early SB XLIX line[/h] [h=3]Where the early money is going for Seattle-New England[/h] Originally Published: January 19, 2015

By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider

 

 

[h=5]Seahawks Rally Past Packers In OT[/h] Highlight Of The Night: The Seahawks overcame a 16-0 third-quarter deficit and Russell Wilson throwing four interceptions to stun the Packers in overtime 28-22 and return to the Super Bowl. Tags: NFL, Green Bay Packers, Seattle Seahawks, Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, Eddie Lacy, Mason Crosby, Clint Gresham, Jermaine Kearse, Marshawn Lynch

 

 

Seahawks Rally Past Packers In OT [h=6]NEXT VIDEO [/h]

 

 

 

LAS VEGAS -- You've probably heard by now that Super Bowl XLIX between the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots is at pick 'em.

And whether you were tracking the Super Bowl XLIX line yourself Sunday night, saw it on "SportsCenter" or read the story by my ESPN Chalk colleague David Purdum, you probably have heard that the line opened with Seattle as the favorite.

But here in our weekly Opening Line Report column, we've tried all season to give a more comprehensive look of how lines get bet into place, starting with the advance lines that some books post and then how the Vegas and offshore books adjust those lines based on early betting.

So even though the Super Bowl is the biggest game of the year, we'll break down the line evolution just like any other game (though in more detail than we do for any game in a regular week).

Advance lines

 

 

 

 

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook had its generic NFC-AFC line (which it typically bases on the favorites to make it to the Super Bowl, so it was basically a Seattle-New England line) as NFC minus-3 over the AFC last week with the over/under set at 48.5. The William Hill books in Nevada posted lines last week on the four Super Bowl possibilities and opened Seattle minus-2.5 over New England. By Sunday's NFC Championship Game kickoff, that had been bet up to the Westgate number of minus-3.

Offshores post first openers

Those earlier lines notwithstanding, offshore giant Pinnacle was the first to post a Super Bowl line after the Patriots jumped out to an early lead over the Colts. Since the Seahawks had struggled before rallying to beat the Packers (but not covering the closing 8.5-point spread) 28-22 in overtime, it's not surprising that Pinny lowered Seattle to a 2-point favorite when it opened at 4:23 p.m. PT (7:23 p.m. ET, but we'll stick with Vegas/Pacific Time). BetOnline opened Seattle minus-3 after the Patriots opened up a 14-0 lead, and both stayed there for the next 100 minutes before the line started getting posted in Vegas.

Why the delay?

The Super Bowl line traditionally has opened when the second conference championship game goes final, or when its outcome is no longer in doubt. Even in the case of blowouts, the Vegas books have usually waited until the start of the fourth quarter before feeling comfortable enough to start taking Super Bowl bets. The reason for this is because, while offshore books can more easily void and refund bets taken on a matchup that doesn't end up happening, Vegas shops have the logistical problem of having early bettors needing to come back to the counter to void their tickets and get refunds. It just makes the Vegas books more leery of jumping the gun. (Imagine if the games were played in reverse order and played out the same way; there probably would have been some books that posted a New England-Green Bay line before Seattle's rally.)

Vegas books reopen their SB lines

No Vegas books had posted a line with the Patriots leading the Colts 24-7, but when Tom Brady hit Rob Gronkowski with a 5-yard touchdown pass with 3:19 left in the third quarter to give New England a 31-7 lead, that was enough for the Westgate, which reopened at Seattle minus-2.5 at 6:13 p.m. PT. That adjustment made sense considering the Seahawks' struggles and the Patriots' dominance. Within minutes, the MGM, South Point, Wynn and CG Technology also went with Seattle minus-2.5, but the first sign of things to come was Stations opening at Seattle minus-2. Then the Patriots starting pouring it on, going up 38-7 on the Colts with 2:08 left in the third quarter.

Shortly after that, Pinnacle dropped to Seattle minus-1.5, and the first Vegas book to move off its opener was the MGM, as it dropped to minus-1.5 by 6:24 p.m. PT. The Westgate followed suit at 6:27 p.m. PT, and when the Patriots scored again to take a 45-7 lead with 10:05 to play, a lot of books started going to pick 'em.

The MGM was the first to flip the favorite, going to New England minus-1 at 6:40 p.m. PT. By the time the AFC title game ended at 7:03 p.m. PT, I reported on my Twitter feed that the consensus line in Vegas was pick 'em with an over/under of 49. While six of the 14 books on the Don Best odds screen were at pick 'em, the Boyd Gaming books had joined MGM at New England minus-1 while the Wynn and Treasure Island books were holding the line at Seattle minus-1.5. Over the next two hours, pick 'em remained the consensus with Boyd Gaming dipping to pick 'em while Station Casinos joined MGM at New England minus-1.

History repeating itself?

It's interesting to note that we saw the same thing a year ago, as reported in my Opening Line Report for Super Bowl XLVIII, as Seattle was the favorite on the advance line and opened minus-2 against Denver, and then all the early money came in on the AFC champion that won convincingly while the Seahawks had a much harder test. The line went all the way to Denver minus-3 before getting bet back down. We all know what happened: Seattle routed Denver 43-8 after closing as a 2.5-point underdog.

Where does the line go from here?

The betting late Sunday wasn't as lopsided as last year and several people predict that Seattle will get bet back to favoritism, but it still looks more likely that the public is going to again jump on the high-scoring Patriots after more people get access to the betting line. It doesn't look like the line would go all the way to New England minus-3, though it's possible the line could continue to steam if Seattle defensive backs Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas are unable to play (though they both vowed that they won't miss the Super Bowl, and both are scheduled for MRIs on Monday). We'll see how that all plays out. If one or both is out (or viewed as less than 100 percent), the total could also inch upward.

Happy handicapping!

 

 

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