JIMMY THE GREEK SAYS

[jimmythegreek]

(4) TCU -38.5 over Kansas:
The unbeaten 4th ranked Horned Frogs (6-0 3-0) come off a 26-6 win over Kansas St (3-3 1-2) last week in Manhattan in a contest that was marred by the weather evident of a 3 hour lightning and rain delay. TCU’s stingy defense limited the Wildcats to just 216 total yards and two Matthew McCrane field goals, while the offense though at times out of rhythm, did more than enough behind Kenny Hill (27/37 297) including a 7 yard rushing TD to open the scoring. Sewo Olonuila gained just 8 yards on 6 carries (1.3) but scored twice each from a yard out. Alex Delton (11/29 146) was inefficient and had difficulty putting KSU in position to show little if any competitiveness as the Wildcat offense was limited to 10 first downs and was nearly outgained by a 2-1 margin. TCU returns home to Amon Carter Stadium in Fort Worth to host Kansas (1-5 0-3), who was obliterated by Iowa St 45-0 in Ames last week not suffering a hangover from the week before when the Cyclones upset Oklahoma in Norman. David Montgomery (21-68 3.2 3 TD) gave ISU all the scoring they needed with a 4 yard rushing TD just :44 into the contest. Sheldon Crowney Jr (4-11 2.8 1 TD) added a 10 yard score in the 4th with the contest well in hand, and Kyle Kempt (13/20 122 1 TD) hooked up with Marchie Murdock (2-17 1 TD) on an 8 yard scoring pass. Trever Ryan returned a Cole Moos punt 68 yards to the house, and the Iowa St defense pitched a shutout holding the Jayhawks to just 127 total yards. Carter Stanley and Peyton Bender combined to go just 11/26 for 44 yards and an INT.

 

TCU’s offense is nicely balanced halfway through the 2017 campaign averaging about 465 yards and 41.3 points per contest. Since conference play started, the luxuries have tightened up a bit, but Hill (127/182 1450 10 TD 3 INT) continues to show plenty of poise at the helm sporting an accurate powerful arm. To give you an idea of the variety he has in his receiving core, he’s thrown TD passes to 9 different receivers led by top target Kavontae Turpin (21-209 1 TD) who caught 5 passes for 70 yards against K State. Desmon White (19-212 2 TD) has not been targeted as much as in the orginal game plan but still remains a viable option for Hill. John Diarse (17-212 1 TD) also makes up a key part of the receiving core as does Jalen Reagor (15-255 2 TD) who is perhaps the Horned Frogs deeper threat especially targeted in man for man coverage downfield. Equally as versatile as the passing game is the run led by Darius Anderson (79-470 5.9 6 TD) who although only carried twice against the Wildcats gained 160 yards and scored 3 TD’s in a 44-31 win over Oklahoma St a couple of weeks back. Hill in his own right can be dangerous with his feet especially in the open field, and Kyle Hicks (50-257 5.1 1 TD) , who adds another depth of dimension returning from injury this weekend is the secondary back behind Anderson as both sport healthy yardage per touch. Oloniula (34-157 4.6 6 TD) is the squad’s red one and short yardage go-to, and uses his 6’4′ 230 lb frame to overpower opposing undersized defensive line tacklers. While not exactly a team that moves lightning quick in tempo and rarely sporting a no-huddle approach, TCU is extremely athletic in the backfield and loaded up in the passing game that all it takes is a couple of big plays before the Horned Frogs are a viable threat to score. That’s bad news for Kansas, who hasn’t won on the road since 2009 and sports a defense that surrenders 477 yards and 45 points per contest. That includes among the top 10 in worst passing defense allowing 290 yards on average. Joe Dineen could be the X-factor determining how efficient TCU’s success will be, but cannot handle the workload alone despite tops in the conference with 13 tackles per game.

 

It all started out promising for the Jayhawks opening the season by taking care of business against Div 1-AA SE Missouri St but have since dropped 5 straight and getting outscored by an average of 29 points per game. Bender (122/221 1391 8 TD 9 INT) is one of those all or nothing type QB’s who when on the same page with his receivers can make positive things happen. However when he’s inaccurate can create mistakes that lead to short fields and all out opportunities for the opposition. Steve Sims Jr (22-406 3 TD) was cruising putting up some impressive numbers as Bender’s primary target but ran into a buzzsaw last week limited to one catch against Iowa St. They lack depth in the running game as Khalil Herbert (68/503 7.4 4 TD) has taken on the bulk of the workload. Kansas averages about 400 yards of offense but the trouble is that most of it comes when they’re playing from behind as a discredit to their defense. Now they’re facing another wholesome defense in TCU which at times has seemed suspect in the secondary yielding about 240 yards per game but against the run have been lights out holding the opposition to just 98 yards, 10th in the country. If it’s one thing Kansas offense coordinator Doug Meacham knows is Gary Patterson’s 4-2-5 defense. Ben Banogu leads the Horned Frogs with 4 sacks and 8 tackles for loss playing a huge part while increasingly aggressive as the season wears on especially after having to sit out transferring from UL Monroe.

 

Kansas sports little if virtually zero effective pass rush while their secondary is undersized and overmatched. Hill and company give it a clean effort most of the time moving the ball effectively with a solid mix of backs and receivers to complement the game plan. TCU is also extremely careful when it comes to ball security sporting a +4 turnover margin while Kansas is a lot more careless at -9. If I were the public, I certainly wouldn’t count on a repeat of last season where TCU was lucky to get by this awful Kansas team by a single point. The home scrimmage turns into another home blowout for the Horned Frogs, who will be hard pressed to take their feet off the gas pedal given the disparity of talent on both sides of the ball.

 

 

I’ll have another Saturday selection shortly.

[jimmythegreek]

(1) Alabama -36 over Tennessee:
Okay so for those of you crying foul that I am doing something I haven’t done all season which is pick the two largest spread favorites on the board, you can do what Fleetwood Mac has been singing all their careers to simply go your own way. Quite frankly most anybody probably couldn’t blame me, considering that the top ranked Crimson Tide (7-0 4-0) have started to once again show their SEC dominance by absolutely pulvarizing Vandy, Ole Miss, and Arkansas over the last month. In Bama’s 41-9 rough shedding of the Razorbacks last week, Damien Harris (9-125 13.9 2 TD) made a statement that there would be no upset with a 75 yard TD run on the opening play from scrimmage. Harris would later add a 4 yard scoring run, and Jalen Hurts (10-41 4.1 1 TD) closed out a 24-0 halftime lead scampering 11 yards to the house. Hurts (12/19 155 1 TD 1 INT) also connected with Henry Ruggs on a 20 yard TD reception. Alabama chalked up 483 yards off total offense and limited the Hogs to just 192 including only 27 on the ground. Cole Kelley (23/42 200 1 TD 1 INT) was basically mediocre limited to just short drops while being sacked 6 times. Arkansas QB Austin Allen sat out this one because of a shoulder injury. Three top 10 teams, #2 Clemson, #8 Washington State and #10 Auburn had already fallen before Alabama took the field. The top ranked Crimson Tide stay home in Tuscaloosa to face Tennessee (3-3 0-3) who looked lackluster and at times dormant in a 15-9 loss at Rocky Top to South Carolina. Parker White put the Gamecocks ahead to stay with 2 of his 3 4th quarter field goals breaking a 9-all tie, and AJ Turner (14-86 6.1 1 TD) scored on a 20 yard run in the third quarter that helped South Carolina rally from a 6 point deficit. Jake Bentley completed 15/24 for 129 yards, Bryan Edwards caught 6 passes for 63 yards and SC outgained Tennessee 323-253 including 194-120 running the football. Jarrett Guarantano (11/18 133) was also efficient throwing the ball but was sacked 8 times and could not lead the Vols into the end zone limited to just 3 Brent Cimaglia chip shot field goals.

 

Hurts (82/130 1025 8 TD 1 INT) is not your typical aerial attack up tempo rocket for an arm QB but is much more dangerous with his feet. He efficiently uses the halfback option to his success as one of the best in the country and is the second leading rusher on the Tide (79-558 7.1 6 TD). A one-two punch with Harris (68-625 9.2 9 TD), Bama sports the 7th best ground attack in the country with 303 yards per contest. When Hurts is on the run making his throws he has top target Calvin Ridley (33-441 2 TD) set up the middle and lined up on the sidelines in motion with big play speed and extremely reliable hands which we’ll eventually see on Sundays. However as head coach Nick Saban has established thus far that the Crimson Tide are a run first squad. We certainly can’t forget about Bo Scarborough (72-359 5.0 4 TD) who ran for 65 yards on just 7 carries (9.3) in the win over the Hogs. Alabama averages about 486 yards of total offense along with 43 points per contest, good for 15th overall in the nation. The game plan lies strictly with Saban and company as Tennessee does defend the pass tremendously giving up only 130 yards through the air ranking second in the country. However they surrender 243 yards on the ground which is 8th worst overall despite allowing only 24 points per game. The Vols are going to have trouble staying on their toes if Hurts and Ridley enjoy success against an otherwise depleted Rocky Top run defense. TO make matters worse, the Vols have just 2 INT’s all season long so if Hurts can run the ball efficiently without making mistakes with his arm, the end result will once again result in Bama decisively.

 

Tennessee was blanked by Georgia a couple of weeks back and with their near dormant effort needs to kick it into gear as 23 points per game is not going to be nearly enough to give Bama’s dominating defense a challenge. There are major issues at QB as Quinton Dormady (76/137 925 6 TD 6 INT) is dealing with a shoulder injury backing up Guarantano. They have a two headed monster in their receiving core led by Brandon Johnson (21-259 1 TD), who had just 3 catches in the loss to SC, and John Kelly (24-250) despite Marquez Callaway (12-236 3 TD) leading the way in scoring receptions. Kelly is a dual threat out in the flat and in the backfield (113-552 4.9 6 TD) despite held to just 100 rushing yards over the past 2 games. After scoring 42 points each in wins over Georgia Tech and Indiana St, they’ve averaged just 11.5 losing 3 of their last 4 games including that heartbreaking loss to Florida on a last second Hail Mary. Alabama has won 21 straight not only on the strength of their running game but the defense has played exceptional. Jeremy Pruitt demands no drop off in performance nor resiliency week to week. Tennessee is in trouble and cannot afford to turn the ball over as Alabama has scored 9 defensive TD’s thus far midway through the season. The Crimson Tide have surrendered only 254 yards per contest which is 4th nationally. Junior safety Minkah Fitzpatrick (32 tackles) is the star of the unit while CB Levi Wallace (3 INT) and sophomore defensive end Raekwon Davis (5 sacks) are enjoying solid campaigns.

 

Tennessee simply has too many issues defending the run and on offense at QB lacking consistent play. Coach Butch Jones will probably be fired at the end of the season, and his team and fan base look to be giving up on him. Hurts has continued to be one of the best dual-threat QBs in the country, and has so many workhorses in the backfield, along with arguably the best wideout in Ridley. This being a rivalry contest, 5 TD’s can seem like plenty in a high magnitude affair like this. However with Bama owning the SEC and putting out forth an even more dominating performance with each passing game, the Vols could be facing a goose egg or at the very best single digit offense.

 

Best of luck however you play!
YTD 7-6 .538

[KingRevolver]

Thanks, Jimmy.  Will tail. 

[jimmythegreek]

Great defensive efforts by TCU and Alabama get the job done for a Saturday sweep.
Thanks and congrats to those who followed!

[Balco]

Not sure how he got 36 without buying points, but it didn't matter.

[KingRevolver]

Jimmy with two winners. Beautiful.

[Balco]

Jimmy with two winners. Beautiful.

Only beautiful if you hit it...

[KingRevolver]

Only beautiful if you hit it...

Guy posted two winners. Period.