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Nba experts, sharps or just those who follow the sport

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6 replies to this topic

#1
drnkyourmlkshk1

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Ive been working on NBA totals for the past 3 months with 2 good partners and we have done well. The last 2 days we have seen line movememt that literally makes no sense in many regards.

The last 3 days every total has been steamed to the over. The median/avg for these totals do not match metrics and simple stat calculations. However pace increased in every 1st half yesterday by a pretty large margin hence a heavy over day.
Is there something I'm missing? Following the trade deadline do teams push pace/play less D? Are less set plays called because coaches have to get a feel for the player they have lost/aquired? Is the all star break looming a angle?
Apparently no sharps this morning believed thered be a single under tonight. 5,6 point moves. Im not sure Ive seen anything this unexplainable. One of us does sides and pointed out the lack of dog money as well.

#2
Blue

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Your first mistake is thinking you know when a line move makes sense. How do you quantify a line move on an NBA total? Whatever's moving it is what I'd get behind not whether I think it makes sense or not. 



#3
rito

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Does your model use shot location and defensive positioning data?



#4
drnkyourmlkshk1

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Your first mistake is thinking you know when a line move makes sense. How do you quantify a line move on an NBA total? Whatever's moving it is what I'd get behind not whether I think it makes sense or not.


All the moves made sense until around Thursday of last week. Base total quantification was fairly vanilla at cris openers and the movements aside from injuries were all in sync for us. I havent lost much but hitting overnight unders has seemed fairly pointless and reacting to moves isnt something I have a tendency towards.

#5
drnkyourmlkshk1

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Does your model use shot location and defensive positioning data?


No model for me. Im a dinosaur outside of excel. Partner does modeling we speak at length about each games and number to come up with a middle number and then balance it against any discrepency. Normally we have 2 plays a night we feel good about and then the individual who does sides will also have 2-3 mon wed fri. Its not high volume and has been a mostly fruitful but overall fun experiment.
We arent moving anything obviously and the money is far from get rich etc not that we had any grand views of such. I track 6 different items, he tracks 9 through his model. It seems corner 3s and p.o.p has increased with only 9 teams of the 30 but all 30 are being popped. I have a theory that teams are mailing it in until after the A.S. break on D but metrics dont really show that being the case other than the corner 3.

#6
WeinkeToWarrick

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All star break

#7
KingRevolver

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NBA all over the place.

Btw, does anyone know the over/under total results in the last ten all-star games? Can't find it.




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