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TommyL's 2018 World Cup

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101 replies to this topic

#1
TommyL

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Behind schedule vs. the last few World Cups due to life getting in the way (new job, travel, coaching son's soccer team, kids in general).  Took some time off, but back into it over the past several weeks as I've been gearing up for Russia 2018 (the USA debacle probably contributed to my difficulty getting started with everything).  I should finish up my initial plays in the next few hours, and will throw them into this thread.

 

2017 Soccer Result at TGF:  +38.745 units (ROI: +15.9%) 



#2
Machine Gun Teddy

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LCD just came in his girl panties

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#3
Guest_ConspiracyMuncher_*

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Good shit



#4
TommyL

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I took everything from 5Dimes or Bookmaker. If you've got access to Pinnacle, some of these can be had for a better price.

Russia doesn't advance from Group A (+255 @ 5Dimes) 1.5 units to win 3.825 units
Egypt wins Group A (+575 @ 5Dimes) 1 unit to win 5.75 units
Iran advances from Group B (+700 @ 5Dimes) .5 units to win 3.5 units
Spain wins group B (-195 @ Bookmaker) 1.95 units to win 1 unit
Peru wins Group C (+1024 @ Bookmaker) .5 units to win 5.12 units
Peru advances from Group C (+220 @ 5Dimes) 2 units to win 4.4 units
Denmark doesn't win Group C (-590 @ 5Dimes) 2.36 units to win .4 units
Argentina wins Group D (-149 @ Bookmaker) 1.49 units to win 1 unit
Costa Rica wins Group E (+1998 @ Bookmaker) .2 units to win 3.996 units
Costa Rica advances from Group E (+400 @ 5Dimes) .5 units to win 2 units
Germany wins Group F (-235 @ Bookmaker) 2.35 units to win 1 unit
South Korea doesn't advance from Group F (-450 @ 5Dimes) 2.25 units to win .5 units
Panama advances from Group G (+1100 @ 5Dimes) .2 units to win 2.2 units
Belgium wins Group G (-115 @ Bookmaker) 1.15 units to win 1 unit
Colombia wins Group H (+135 @ Bookmaker) 1 unit to win 1.35 units
Japan advances from Group H (+230 @ 5Dimes) 1.5 units to win 3.45 units
Poland doesn't advance from Group H (+150 @ 5Dimes) 2 units to win 3 units

Saudi Arabia/Russia under 2.5 (-134 @ 5Dimes) 2.68 units to win 2 units
Egypt +.5 Uruguay (+122 @ 5Dimes) 1 unit to win 1.22 units
Iran +.5 Morocco (-149 @ 5Dimes) 1.49 units to win 1 unit
Portugal/Spain over 2.5 (+132 @ 5Dimes) 1 unit to win 1.32 units
France -1.5 Australia (-130 @ 5Dimes) 1.95 units to win 1.5 units
Peru -.5 Denmark (+268 @ Bookmaker) 1 unit to win 2.68 units
Costa Rica +.5 Serbia (-115 @ 5Dimes) 1.15 units to win 1 unit
Sweden -.5 South Korea (+118 @ 5Dimes) 1.5 units to win 1.77 units



#5
KingRevolver

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:cheers

Great job last time, Tommy.

#6
TobyTyler

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Thanks for posting

When does it start?

#7
joeybagadonuts

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Tommyl sharp as it gets with soccer.
"Cryptic bets, hot dog/hamburger discussion, threats, wigger cucumber, and so on. Good thread. Helps with the insomnia and is more fun than Statistics homework."

#8
jasson621

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Took some time(drinking Pinot's today) but have tailed them all,GL Tommy.


Sayeret Matkal


#9
Machine Gun Teddy

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When does it start?

Tommy does all the capping creating 25 plays and you can’t even find out in your own when the damn thing starts?

You should send Tommy $500 and ask him to put your bets in for you

- Bet Devil


#10
TobyTyler

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Tailing

Lol teddy

#11
easy does it

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Get your germany futures in now. Going back to,back
I’m a stiff. Don’t do any business with me

#12
TommyL

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Two more futures...

Top Goalscorer - Timo Werner (+1600 @ 5Dimes) .4 units to win 6.4 units
Top Goalscorer - Mohamed Salah (+4000 @ 5Dimes) .15 units to win 6 units

 

Apologies in advance to both of them as I just increased their risk of injury over the next 60 days...



#13
TommyL

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Figure that I'll just put any friendless that I play over the next month in this thread too.

 

One for today (from 5Dimes)...

Saudi Arabia +.5 Greece (-161) 1.61 units to win 1 unit



#14
TommyL

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Goes in about 10 minutes (from 5Dimes)...

Egypt -.5 Kuwait (-110) 1.10 units to win 1 unit



#15
TobyTyler

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Missed it

#16
TommyL

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Missed it


I wanted to see the lineups, and didn’t find them until about 20 minutes before kick (shockingly, coverage of a random friendly in Kuwait isn’t great).

#17
RudyRuder

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tommy can we fade usa here?



#18
TobyTyler

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I wanted to see the lineups, and didn’t find them until about 20 minutes before kick (shockingly, coverage of a random friendly in Kuwait isn’t great).

no problem , i would have mushed

#19
TommyL

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Uruguay to win Group A (-105 @ 5Dimes)   1.575 units to win 1.5 units



#20
rito

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Uruguay to win Group A (-105 @ 5Dimes)   1.575 units to win 1.5 units

 

I got a lot of this at +110, +108, +107, +105



#21
TommyL

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I got a lot of this at +110, +108, +107, +105

 

I really don't like Uruguay that much, but Russia is ridiculously over-valued, Saudi Arabia is crap, and I'm coming to grips with the fact that I burned $ playing Egypt (especially if this injury is at all serious, which it looked like it could have been).  Hopefully Morocco gets as lucky as Russia with their draw in 2026...



#22
rito

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  Hopefully Morocco gets as lucky as Russia with their draw in 2026...

 

lol :(

 

 

my model only has uruguay at ~ 48% but I'm pretty sure I'm overrating Russia a lot.



#23
rito

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Salah out of WC.

 

Ramos should be executed.



#24
Sam Losco

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Salah out of WC.

Ramos should be executed.

well now i dont feel so good about my egypt making it out of the group futures

#25
rito

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well now i dont feel so good about my egypt making it out of the group futures

 

yea i had a good price before now it got slammed the other way






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