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Belmont Long Shots

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21 replies to this topic

#1
rdalert447

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NYRA has me by the balls. Seeing what trends develop during the Belmont meet helps me formulate opinions going into Saratoga. So, against my better judgement, I'll be playing long shots sparingly at this $hit meet . Please chime in with any info or picks.

Good looking card today. 1330 start time sucks.

Race 2
$20 win #2 Problem Solving 12-1
Baker had an 8-1 winner the other day, and he's a guy who wins them in bunches when his barn is right, in all different scenarios. Will try and catch him on a run.

Race 3
$20 win #4 Champagne Event 30-1
I think the value with Ryerson lies with his lesser known owners. The Generazio owned entrants usually get bet(see race 7 today). This one's never been on turf, so sky's the limit on odds. Only win came with Lopez up, a former Monmouth go to guy for the trainer.

Race 9
$20 win #3 Sugar Curl 12-1
Cannizzo was dominant here last summer, but it was hard to get a price. So far, early in the meet, he's had a horse run second at 22-1 and a great third at 12-1. He stands winless so far, so jumping aboard before the public wises up.

Anyone playing today?

#2
jasson621

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I'm in as usual rd good luck


Sayeret Matkal


#3
richsox24

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Tailing as well. 

 

Lets hope we get one.  



#4
rdalert447

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Blah. Slow start.

#5
rdalert447

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I bet these today:

Race 4
$20 Win #8 Nakamura 15-1
$2 exbx 1-8
I’ve seen this act before. Longer half of Motion entry, going long on turf, with a Maryland based jockey named for price enhancement. Boxed it with the shorter Motion.

Race 7
$20 Win #4 Light the Vow 8-1
Sticking with Baker, who’s horse ran good yesterday. This one was competitive with Allow level horses just three weeks ago.

Race 8
$20 Win #1 Black Tide 6-1
Not exactly a long shot but based on Cannizzo’s meet last year and his horse’s under the radar performance thus far, I want to stay on him.

Anyone have anything?

#6
WeinkeToWarrick

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Love black tide’s style

#7
richsox24

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Good luck Rd!

 

Never knew you hit that Saratoga pick 6 last year.  I actually had that 8x.  What a score! Lol 



#8
barryrunsome

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Tailed all 3.
Broke Landers is down 300K lifetime. Could win every single bet placed for the next 5 years and would still be in the RED

:lebrick :deemer

#9
joeybagadonuts

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I did too
"Cryptic bets, hot dog/hamburger discussion, threats, wigger cucumber, and so on. Good thread. Helps with the insomnia and is more fun than Statistics homework."

#10
rdalert447

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Tailed all 3.

 
 

I did too


Loll. Oh boy......

#11
rdalert447

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I actually had that 8x.  What a score! Lol


Loll. We all buried it!

#12
shooterman

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Just betting the Irish nags like usual. Boxing exactas with your nags....



#13
barryrunsome

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Well that ended horrifically
Broke Landers is down 300K lifetime. Could win every single bet placed for the next 5 years and would still be in the RED

:lebrick :deemer

#14
rdalert447

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Played another three bagger. Hoping to break my maiden.

Race 2
$20 win #10 Causeur 10-1
Motion had two horses run really well yesterday. A winner at 7/2 and a fourth at 29-1. McCarthy was on that long one and gave a really good ride, so will stick with this combo hoping they came loaded. Maybe first time gelded will get this horse over the hump.

Race 7
$20 win #9 Inheritthewind 6-1
Rice has a rep as a turf sprint specialist, but the value lies with her turf routers. I try to play her in that mode whenever a decent price appears, while the rest of the public bury her sprinters based on a one meet anamoly years ago.

Race 11
$20 win #8 Bigger Picture 12-1
Maker dominates these turf Marathons here. The time to get on board is with his lesser known ownership groups, as the Ramsey owned entrants tend to get buried on the tote.

Anyone playing?

#15
jasson621

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GL today rd, Santa Anita has a good card today I am heading out there in about 2 hours.


Sayeret Matkal


#16
rdalert447

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Good luck Jasson. Post some picks. Or pics.

#17
rdalert447

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Race 5
$20 Win #1 Frosty Gal 10-1
No way will we get 10-1 after scratches, but Tagg showing signs of life, and you always get some value on his dirt runners in NY.

Race 8
$20 Win #5 Rectify 8-1
$2 DD 2,5/7
After a monster break out meet here last year, Nevin off to a smoking start again. She’s hard to get a price on, although she snuck a 30-1 across last year.

Race 9
$20 Win #7 Street Cat Sam 15-1
After watching this one’s last race, I was hoping Ferraro would wheel it right back. Speed effort followed by a quick return is the trainer’s go to move. If you have the inclination, watch the replay of its last outing. Speed four wide all the way around, still trying hard to the line after giving way in the stretch. I’m a fan of the lesser known Lezcano. Ultra agressive rider unafraid to use the whip, Chop Chop Chavez style.

Good luck, men!

#18
rdalert447

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Pathetic start to the meet....

#19
KingRevolver

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Who do you like this weekend, Redder?



#20
WeinkeToWarrick

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I keep playing pick 3’s and going 2/3 with Irad finding new ways to fuck me every time (either losing when I include him or winning when I cut him)

#21
rdalert447

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Played two today, so far....

Race 6
$20 Win #8 Beyond Honor 10-1
Ryerson for one of his lesser known owners. Like the early speed horse has shown in the past.

Race 8
$20 Win #8 Blugrascat’s Smile 15-1
I’ll keep betting Baker until the wheels fall off. He’s on fire. Luzzi is terrible but already has a W for Baker this meet.

Might be back later. Toner horses in the feature look good, and Ill have to make a decision between Baker horses in the finale.

#22
rdalert447

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Who do you like this weekend, Redder?


In the Preakness, I bet the 3 Sporting Chance to win, and also boxed with the 8 in exacta. Then played a .50c tri 3,8/ALL/3,8. Good luck today.




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