Jump to content

Belmont Long Shots


rdalert447
 Share

Recommended Posts

NYRA has me by the balls. Seeing what trends develop during the Belmont meet helps me formulate opinions going into Saratoga. So, against my better judgement, I'll be playing long shots sparingly at this $hit meet . Please chime in with any info or picks.

 

Good looking card today. 1330 start time sucks.

 

Race 2

$20 win #2 Problem Solving 12-1

Baker had an 8-1 winner the other day, and he's a guy who wins them in bunches when his barn is right, in all different scenarios. Will try and catch him on a run.

 

Race 3

$20 win #4 Champagne Event 30-1

I think the value with Ryerson lies with his lesser known owners. The Generazio owned entrants usually get bet(see race 7 today). This one's never been on turf, so sky's the limit on odds. Only win came with Lopez up, a former Monmouth go to guy for the trainer.

 

Race 9

$20 win #3 Sugar Curl 12-1

Cannizzo was dominant here last summer, but it was hard to get a price. So far, early in the meet, he's had a horse run second at 22-1 and a great third at 12-1. He stands winless so far, so jumping aboard before the public wises up.

 

Anyone playing today?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I bet these today:

 

Race 4

$20 Win #8 Nakamura 15-1

$2 exbx 1-8

I’ve seen this act before. Longer half of Motion entry, going long on turf, with a Maryland based jockey named for price enhancement. Boxed it with the shorter Motion.

 

Race 7

$20 Win #4 Light the Vow 8-1

Sticking with Baker, who’s horse ran good yesterday. This one was competitive with Allow level horses just three weeks ago.

 

Race 8

$20 Win #1 Black Tide 6-1

Not exactly a long shot but based on Cannizzo’s meet last year and his horse’s under the radar performance thus far, I want to stay on him.

 

Anyone have anything?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

Played another three bagger. Hoping to break my maiden.

 

Race 2

$20 win #10 Causeur 10-1

Motion had two horses run really well yesterday. A winner at 7/2 and a fourth at 29-1. McCarthy was on that long one and gave a really good ride, so will stick with this combo hoping they came loaded. Maybe first time gelded will get this horse over the hump.

 

Race 7

$20 win #9 Inheritthewind 6-1

Rice has a rep as a turf sprint specialist, but the value lies with her turf routers. I try to play her in that mode whenever a decent price appears, while the rest of the public bury her sprinters based on a one meet anamoly years ago.

 

Race 11

$20 win #8 Bigger Picture 12-1

Maker dominates these turf Marathons here. The time to get on board is with his lesser known ownership groups, as the Ramsey owned entrants tend to get buried on the tote.

 

Anyone playing?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Race 5

$20 Win #1 Frosty Gal 10-1

No way will we get 10-1 after scratches, but Tagg showing signs of life, and you always get some value on his dirt runners in NY.

 

Race 8

$20 Win #5 Rectify 8-1

$2 DD 2,5/7

After a monster break out meet here last year, Nevin off to a smoking start again. She’s hard to get a price on, although she snuck a 30-1 across last year.

 

Race 9

$20 Win #7 Street Cat Sam 15-1

After watching this one’s last race, I was hoping Ferraro would wheel it right back. Speed effort followed by a quick return is the trainer’s go to move. If you have the inclination, watch the replay of its last outing. Speed four wide all the way around, still trying hard to the line after giving way in the stretch. I’m a fan of the lesser known Lezcano. Ultra agressive rider unafraid to use the whip, Chop Chop Chavez style.

 

Good luck, men!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Played two today, so far....

 

Race 6

$20 Win #8 Beyond Honor 10-1

Ryerson for one of his lesser known owners. Like the early speed horse has shown in the past.

 

Race 8

$20 Win #8 Blugrascat’s Smile 15-1

I’ll keep betting Baker until the wheels fall off. He’s on fire. Luzzi is terrible but already has a W for Baker this meet.

 

Might be back later. Toner horses in the feature look good, and Ill have to make a decision between Baker horses in the finale.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...

Playing four today. Need to break through with a longish one....

 

Race 4

$20 Win #7 Playinwiththeboys 8-1

$2 exbx 1-7

$2 DD 1,7/6

Baker has two fantastic NY BREDS going in this race, and arguments can be made for both. Landed on this one as I think the 5 and a half month layoff is a little too long for the #1 to go wire to wire against this tough field. Looks like a speed/fade setup for next out with that one, which will allow the #7 to stalk and pounce. Horse hasn’t run a bad race in two years with two different trainers at three different tracks. Impressive.

 

Race 5

$20 Win #6 Courageous Change 10-1

My favorite angle. Ferraro, quick wheelback, off a speed/fade type effort,

 

Race 7

$20 Win #1 Presence of Mind 30-1

Playing both Weaver horses today. His NY string is usually prepping for Saratoga this time of year, but he’s winning at Gulf and Monmouth, so me thinks he might have one trick up his sleeve in NY.

 

Race 8

$20 Win #11 Mo Maverick 15-1

See race 7. Don’t know if we get a win from these two, but both look poised for big efforts.

 

Anyone playing today??

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...