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Saratoga Thoughts 2018


rdalert447
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Handful I’m looking to play today at decent prices:

 

Race 1

#4 Tweedia 8-1

Cox is impossible to get a price on up here these days, so striking while the opportunity presents itself. He hasn’t done anything the first two weeks, so hopefully the bettors are off the scent.

 

Race 2

#8 Paynter’s Prize 15-1

Baker had an in and out meet at Belmont, so I know he’s got a few that have to be ready here. He hasn’t done much here yet, so getting on board. I prefer his dirt starters to the turfers, so glad this came off. Rosario, who I can’t stand, is riding awesome.

 

Race 4

#4 Bitumen 8-1

Parx shippers are tearing it up, with at least 3 w’s and Uriah’s great effort yesterday. I’ll stick with them.

 

Race 6

#8 Royal Angel 20-1

Kimmel runners are quietly doing well for the first time in forever. Back in his heyday, he would surprise once a meet with a 2 year old.

 

Race 7

#5 Wushu Warrior 15-1

Only viable time to play Chris Englehart up here is on dirt, sprinting or routing, allowance level and under.

 

Race 10

#1 Realm 10-1

Tagg gets ignored up here on dirt, but has some nice wins over the years. Another nostalgic play but price should be right.

 

Race 11

#5 Miss Sizzle 15-1

Baker again. See race 2.

 

I’ll have Win bets on all, and fool around with some exotics, which I’ll probably screw up.

 

Anyone playing?

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***PREMIUM PLAY***

 

Race 7

$1 P3 5/ALL/2

 

Race 9

$20 WIN #2 Majestic Dunhill 8-1

$2 ex 2/ALL

$2 DD 2/ALL

Weaver went up in flames with yet another over bet horse in today's fifth. He's 0 fer since winning the feature on opening day, burning ALOT of money along the way. I think it's a good time to jump aboard as the bettors may be off the scent. He's a guy who points his entire barn towards this meet every year. Everyone knows it yet he still averages 11 winners per meet and sneaks a few long ones across. This horse broke its maiden here last year at 7-1, and has come back running off a 7 month layoff with two straight scores. Can't see getting the morning line on it, but anywhere near that would be swell.

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Another handful Im looking to play today:

 

Race 2

#1a Southern Phantom 7/2

There was a lot of chatter about this one in its debut due to its strange face(see pic below). Ran decent but green at the start. With two Pletcher’s and an Asmussen in here, should get every bit of the morning line, and probably more. Plus we get two for one with the Lukas entrant. Trainer Guillot is quoted as aiming for a Grade I at the end of the meet with this one.

 

Race 5

#10 Abatement 15-1

Horse ran good first time in the States, off a long layoff, going steeples to flat. Should be some improvement off that effort. Carmouche aboard signals an intent to be closer to the front early. Trainer’s father, the legendary Tom Voss, used to win with these steeple horses on the flat often up here at big prices. Matter of time before she pulls it off.

 

Race 7

#6 Violent Times 20-1

Horse seems to have injury problems, but trainer showed a lot of confidence throwing it into stakes action off a long layoff, off a maiden breaker. Never been on turf so should get a huge price from a sharp outfit, in a wide open race.

 

I’ll have Win bets on all the above, and screw around with some exotics. Anyone in action today?

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Another handful Im looking to play today:

Race 2

#1a Southern Phantom 7/2

There was a lot of chatter about this one in its debut due to its strange face(see pic below). Ran decent but green at the start. With two Pletcher’s and an Asmussen in here, should get every bit of the morning line, and probably more. Plus we get two for one with the Lukas entrant. Trainer Guillot is quoted as aiming for a Grade I at the end of the meet with this one.

Race 5

#10 Abatement 15-1

Horse ran good first time in the States, off a long layoff, going steeples to flat. Should be some improvement off that effort. Carmouche aboard signals an intent to be closer to the front early. Trainer’s father, the legendary Tom Voss, used to win with these steeple horses on the flat often up here at big prices. Matter of time before she pulls it off.

Race 7

#6 Violent Times 20-1

Horse seems to have injury problems, but trainer showed a lot of confidence throwing it into stakes action off a long layoff, off a maiden breaker. Never been on turf so should get a huge price from a sharp outfit, in a wide open race.

I’ll have Win bets on all the above, and screw around with some exotics. Anyone in action today?

Good luck RD. I'm playing a couple today. Like the 8 in race 2. Big fan of Asmussen firster. I'll exbox your 1 with it.

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