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Tampa Bay Downs Winter 2018/Spring 2019


rdalert447
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Trying to figure it all out now. So far:

 

Race 2

$20 win #3 Sister Drama 15-1

$2 Ex 3/ALL

$1 P3 3/ALL/3

 

This one checks all the boxes for Arboritanza. He has great ROI with distance turn backs, with second starts of meet, and with quick wheelbacks. Plus he’s using Uske this meet so far, and I’ve been a fan since H. Allen Jerkens used her.

 

Race 4

$20 win #3 Fast Point 4-1

$1 P3 3/ALL/1

 

Usually don’t like playing Ochoa at such low odds, but this one has three things about it I like. Quick wheelback, huge jock upgrade to Camacho Jr, and it’s been a money burner. I like following the money burners because they usually pop at better prices when everyone else gives up.

 

I’ll be back for the sixth...

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Arboritanza horse walks out of the gate, closes for third at 18-1. Frustrating. Rest of my plays:

 

Race 6

$20 win #1 My Computer 30-1

$2 DD 1/2

$1 P3 1/2/All

$1 P3 1/ALL/9

I'm playing all Ochoa's long ones this meet

 

Race 8

$20 win #9 My Bariley 6-1

$1 P3 9/ALL/8,9

Nice back class and Granitz has one double digit winner already this meet. Great ROI for an under the radar guy.

 

Race 10

$20 win #8 Mancora 30-1

$2 ExBx 8/2,9

 

Ochoa bomb again. Guy owes me.

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Sat 12/22/18

 

Weather wreaking havoc on these cards....

 

Race 7

$20 win #4 Union Ranks 12-1

$2 exbx 4/1,5,12

$2 DD 4/4,8

 

Sinkiewicz strong suit is dirt routes. This one is off the turf and now being run at a mile and forty yards, so all systems go. Going turf to dirt and making a huge jock upgrade to Camacho, seems like the trainer is trying to shake things up. He had a double digit winner the other day, so hopefully the barn is ready to roll.

 

Race 10

$20 win #10 Soby Junior 10-1

$2 Ex 10/All

 

Arboritanza has great ROI with second starts of the meet and beyond, as well as distance turn backs. This one fits both bills, and looks to be a square price. Trainer kept us waiting a while last year before he started to roll, hoping he’s ready a little earlier.

 

2-24, -$494

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Sun 12/23/18

 

A rare Sunday card at Tampa:

 

Race 5

$20 win #12 JP Hellish 15-1

$1 exbx 12/ALL

Arboritanza has very limited stats with fts 2 y/o’s here, so who knows what we get? But couldnt live with myself if he blew up the board on a day I’m looking to play.

 

Race 7

$1 P3 ALL/6/9

 

Race 8

$20 win #6 Doodle Hopper 10-1

$2 exbx 1-6

$2 Ex 6/ALL

 

Riggatieri has scaled back considerably from 2-3 years ago, but still hits at a nice clip with good ROI. This one was competitive here vs Allow level back in Feb/March, and we could toss his last race vs similar. Horse had its head turned when the gate opened, spotting the field a few lengths. Should get an inflated price on a horse that fits, from a sharp barn.

 

2-27, -$584

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Wed 12/26/18

 

Two bagger today:

 

Race 4

$20 win #8 Amberjack 9/2

$2 Ex 8/ALL

$2 exbx 4-8

Second and third time over the course is the way to go with trainer Ali. Made the mistake of playing him early in meet, first over, when the stats and ROI are glaring second and third time. Someday I’ll learn discipline.

 

Race 9

$20 win #5 We’ll Composed 10-1

$2 Ex 5/All

 

I know I’m not getting 10-1 here, but I’ll be out all day and can’t monitor. Trainer Raymond has nice ROI all over the chart, and second time over the course is no different. First effort was a decent third, so the morning line is a bit strange. Same jock, tiniest of stretchout, same level. So no big changes. Hopefully gets ignored somehow....

 

Good luck, folks!

 

2-29, -$664

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Fri 12/28/18

Gotta cut into this figure.

 

Race 4

$20 win #5 Grand Nenuco 10-1

$2 ExBx 5/9,10

$1 P3 5/ALL/3

Conflicting stuff with this horse. At 5 years old only has 15 career starts and coming off a 5 and a half month layoff. Tells me there's some health issues to worry about. BUT the stats are good when it does get on the track, with 3 W's in the last year and 4 total in its 15 starts. Ochoa is a trickster so not gonna talk myself off one of his long ones.

 

Race 6

$20 win #3 Pure Praise 8-1

$2 ExBx 3/1,7

Another conflicting deal. A rare claim by Lerman two starts back, has had all its career success on DIRT. So Lerman enters him on TURF a few days ago, race gets moved to DIRT after some rains so Im thinking its time to pounce. Nope, Lerman scratches and horse is re-entered today on TURF. So Lerman either thinks the horse has a turf future, or he's setting up for a turf to dirt move next start. Worth a twenty to find out.

 

Might be back for the first race if we get a square price on the Ochoa entrant.

 

2-31, -$736

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