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Tampa Bay Downs Winter 2018/Spring 2019


rdalert447
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Fri 2/1/19

 

Two bagger today:

 

Race 5

$20 win #7 Deesse 20-1

$1 exbx 7/ALL

$1 P3 7/ALL/3

 

Weatherington has crazy ROI here in extremely limited starts. Most of the ROI comes from her long layoff horses, which this isn’t. But I’m not gonna split hairs on apotential 70-1 shot. Maybe the dirt to turf move wakes it up.

 

Race 7

$20 win #3 Silver Duke 12-1

$2 Ex 3/ALL

 

Raymond has good numbers here up and down the board, but his ROI really takes off with his longer layoffs(60 days plus), like this one. First start for Raymond, first start in Florida, and first start for a brand new owner. Literally the owners first race as named owner. All seems pretty sneaky to me. Add in the fact that the previous trainer shares a last name with the new owner, and that trainer won with this horse at 66-1, and my alarms start ringing.

 

Good luck, folks.

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Saturday 2/2/19

 

If anyone’s still reading.......

 

Race 2

$20 win #2 Peyton’s Proud Girl 6-1

$2 Ex 2/ALL

Deaton has great ROI off long layoffs here, and this one’s coming back from a three month rest. Goes first out off a private transaction, something I’m always on the lookout for.

 

Race 5

$20 win #2 Go to Win 15-1

$2 Ex 2/ALL

$2 DD 2/3

Last race was too high a class jump for him. Went from a low level claimer, which he won, to a Starter Optional in which only one horse was available for the claim. Toss it. Horse has four wins in the last year at today’s level, theee if them coming over this course in sprints.

 

Race 9

$20 win #10 Soby Junior 8-1

Arboritanza had a nice W the other day, so hoping it’s finally a sign that his barn is ready to roll. Last year, his bread and butter were with horses making their third plus starts of the meet and this is start # 4. He’s like Ochoa where I’m scared to jump off....

 

7-85, -$1746

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Sun 2/3/19

 

Race 1

$20 win #7 Babie Monster 8-1

$2 exbx 5-7

$2 DD 5,7/1

$1 P3 5,7//1/ALL

Arboritanza, third start of meet. His go-to angle needs to start clicking.

 

 

Race 2

$20 win #1 Aurea Aura 4-1

Granitz is having his usual steady meet. I should’ve been cashing in all along on his cheapies instead of swinging for the fences. Would be in much better shape.

 

Race 6

$20 win #4 Jersey Street 6-1

$2 exbx 4-6

.50c tri 4,6/ALL/4,6

 

Aldana Gonzalez looks like she’s about to go on a run, as her horses are running great all of a sudden. I’ll stay on board, despite Spieth.

 

I’ll update the scoreboard in a bit.

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Stumbled upon something that has potential. Was taking a similar beating last meet until trainer J.C. Gotera went on a tear, single handedly turning a $900 deficit into a winning meet. So I've been waiting for him to show up. He hasn't started one horse all meet, yet is tackling Turfway Park for the first time ever. Weird for a guy who dominated the second half of the Tampa meet last year. I'm starting to think he got denied a trainers license, or didn't pursue one, and here's why:

 

There's a trainer at Tampa named Alfredo Lichoa who is starting many horses previously trained by Gotera. And Gotera has run a handful of horses at Turfway previously trained by Lichoa. So theses sneaky fvcks are sending horses back and forth for one reason or another. Something's fishy. Here's the intriguing part; Lichoa has only eight career wins, all in the last 6 months, averaging $20 a pop.

 

This may sound bad, but one thing I've noticed since I started betting Florida racing the last couple years is you have to pay attention to these no name Hispanic trainers. They show up out of nowhere, hit a big bomb or two, then you never hear from them again. Almost as if they know they got away with something, so they don't even bother applying for trainers licenses in the same jurisdictions again.

 

So while perusing tomorrow's card, I noticed Lichoa with a few, so be alert, men.

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