danshan Posted February 23, 2019 Report Share Posted February 23, 2019 I am not a modeler but I am pretty sure that is wrong.the -12 or the idea I think the idea is pretty solid do you think someone can actually model better than the top power ranking places out there right now, I mean they do a pretty darn good job, so this leaves the job of the guy trying to set a line to really just adjust for injuries or wweather or rest or whatever you need to adjust for. I think modeling is quicky becoming a thing of the past. I mean there is not a limit but it would be really hard to model must better than they are doing now. yes quantum computing could possibly do more but that would require more stats than we are getting now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FairWarning Posted February 23, 2019 Report Share Posted February 23, 2019 yes how can you know what to bet if you dont have a fair lineI make my own lines but mainly play team totals in bases. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danshan Posted February 23, 2019 Report Share Posted February 23, 2019 You are going to lose interest here fast with that danshan. I told you the Think Tank was the place for you. Now if you want to talk about Joe Flacco, you might get some interest. i dont think people will lose interest, i think there are some people who are actually interested in talking modeling and lines, why not? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danshan Posted February 23, 2019 Report Share Posted February 23, 2019 I make my own lines but mainly play team totals in bases. I think that can be very profitable but man it always seemed to me to get scary with injuries or trades, predicting that stuff so far out is brutal! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Always Call Heads Posted February 23, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2019 the -12 or the idea I think the idea is pretty solid do you think someone can actually model better than the top power ranking places out there right now, I mean they do a pretty darn good job, so this leaves the job of the guy trying to set a line to really just adjust for injuries or wweather or rest or whatever you need to adjust for. I think modeling is quicky becoming a thing of the past. I mean there is not a limit but it would be really hard to model must better than they are doing now. yes quantum computing could possibly do more but that would require more stats than we are getting now.The idea. Yes, Sagarin numbers will be pretty accurate and will be a basic coinflip on the average. But you are not betting the average. I'd love to be able to bet Sagarin's on college football/ Beating professional sports lines is going to be pretty much impossible for that reason but to do it, you will have to be a lot better than Sagarin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Always Call Heads Posted February 23, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2019 i dont think people will lose interest, i think there are some people who are actually interested in talking modeling and lines, why not?Not here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Always Call Heads Posted February 23, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2019 the -12 or the idea I think the idea is pretty solid do you think someone can actually model better than the top power ranking places out there right now, I mean they do a pretty darn good job, so this leaves the job of the guy trying to set a line to really just adjust for injuries or wweather or rest or whatever you need to adjust for. I think modeling is quicky becoming a thing of the past. I mean there is not a limit but it would be really hard to model must better than they are doing now. yes quantum computing could possibly do more but that would require more stats than we are getting now.also the reason the top power ratings do a good job is because they incorporate the line. That is one of their dirty little secrets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danshan Posted February 23, 2019 Report Share Posted February 23, 2019 The idea. Yes, Sagarin numbers will be pretty accurate and will be a basic coinflip on the average. But you are not betting the average. I'd love to be able to bet Sagarin's on college football/ Beating professional sports lines is going to be pretty much impossible for that reason but to do it, you will have to be a lot better than Sagarin.Sag is the model and the adjustments are made by the bettor, this is the key, they do the model work and you do the adjustment work Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FairWarning Posted February 23, 2019 Report Share Posted February 23, 2019 I think that can be very profitable but man it always seemed to me to get scary with injuries or trades, predicting that stuff so far out is brutal!I try to play short term stats vs long term. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Always Call Heads Posted February 23, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2019 Sag is the model and the adjustments are made by the bettor, this is the key, they do the model work and you do the adjustment workI don't think you are going to win by having average numbers and making adjustments. That ain't how it works. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sol Aristatel Posted February 23, 2019 Report Share Posted February 23, 2019 I try to play short term stats vs long term. You are sounding sharper by the post -FW-. Keep it rolling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FairWarning Posted February 23, 2019 Report Share Posted February 23, 2019 I don't think you are going to win by having average numbers and making adjustments. That ain't how it works.Depends on the adjustments, but yes Sangarin and Kenpom are the most popular and reflected in the line. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danshan Posted February 23, 2019 Report Share Posted February 23, 2019 I don't think you are going to win by having average numbers and making adjustments. That ain't how it works. the model numbers are the base and you adjust accordingly. I still fully model and generate my own power rankings but the argument to stop modeling and model adjustments more than the team is becoming popular. Times are changing, the information is there use it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Always Call Heads Posted February 23, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2019 Depends on the adjustments, but yes Sangarin and Kenpom are the most popular and reflected in the line.No, the line is reflected in KenPom. Heritage tried using KenPom as openers a few years ago and got killed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Always Call Heads Posted February 23, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2019 the model numbers are the base and you adjust accordingly. I still fully model and generate my own power rankings but the argument to stop modeling and model adjustments more than the team is becoming popular. Times are changing, the information is there use it. Maybe. I don't think it is going to win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danshan Posted February 23, 2019 Report Share Posted February 23, 2019 Team SAG SAG MY PR Rockets 92.49 -2.49 -5.83 Warriors 95.81 -5.81 -12.11 Raptors 95.48 -5.48 -7.82 Jazz 92.95 -2.95 -7.78 Trailblazers 93.17 -3.17 -4.82 Nuggets 93.18 -3.18 -6.30 Celtics 95.01 -5.01 -6.77 Thunder 94.04 -4.04 -8.11 Seventysixers 92.78 -2.78 -7.02 Cavaliers 81.7 8.30 7.30 Bucks 97.04 -7.04 -9.87 Wizards 88.39 1.61 -0.41 Spurs 90.85 -0.85 -2.98 Clippers 90.39 -0.39 0.29 Heat 89.35 0.65 -0.27 Timberwolves 91 -1.00 -0.99 Pacers 92.67 -2.67 -3.55 Pelicans 91.19 -1.19 -0.57 Hornets 89.03 0.97 -0.85 Lakers 89.72 0.28 -1.59 Pistons 89.29 0.71 -2.60 Mavericks 88.75 1.25 -1.42 Nets 87.66 2.34 -1.36 Kings 88.85 1.15 -0.75 Magic 89.55 0.45 -1.61 Bulls 84.79 5.21 3.39 Knicks 83.36 6.64 6.41 Hawks 82.44 7.56 2.78 Suns 81.49 8.51 6.17 Grizzlies 87.59 2.41 1.83 column 2 is sags rating and 3 is mine, you can see how similar they really are now these are power rankings and do not include adjustments for player injuries or rest but the similarity is close enough that using sag would nearly give me the same results on most games. IS sag doing something better than me, I doubt it but its close enough it can save a ton of time and give you more time to focus on the adjustments. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Always Call Heads Posted February 23, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2019 Team SAG SAG MY PR Rockets 92.49 -2.49 -5.83 Warriors 95.81 -5.81 -12.11 Raptors 95.48 -5.48 -7.82 Jazz 92.95 -2.95 -7.78 Trailblazers 93.17 -3.17 -4.82 Nuggets 93.18 -3.18 -6.30 Celtics 95.01 -5.01 -6.77 Thunder 94.04 -4.04 -8.11 Seventysixers 92.78 -2.78 -7.02 Cavaliers 81.7 8.30 7.30 Bucks 97.04 -7.04 -9.87 Wizards 88.39 1.61 -0.41 Spurs 90.85 -0.85 -2.98 Clippers 90.39 -0.39 0.29 Heat 89.35 0.65 -0.27 Timberwolves 91 -1.00 -0.99 Pacers 92.67 -2.67 -3.55 Pelicans 91.19 -1.19 -0.57 Hornets 89.03 0.97 -0.85 Lakers 89.72 0.28 -1.59 Pistons 89.29 0.71 -2.60 Mavericks 88.75 1.25 -1.42 Nets 87.66 2.34 -1.36 Kings 88.85 1.15 -0.75 Magic 89.55 0.45 -1.61 Bulls 84.79 5.21 3.39 Knicks 83.36 6.64 6.41 Hawks 82.44 7.56 2.78 Suns 81.49 8.51 6.17 Grizzlies 87.59 2.41 1.83 column 2 is sags rating and 3 is mine, you can see how similar they really are now these are power rankings and do not include adjustments for player injuries or rest but the similarity is close enough that using sag would nearly give me the same results on most games. IS sag doing something better than me, I doubt it but its close enough it can save a ton of time and give you more time to focus on the adjustments. That's fine but you have to be BETTER than the line. You have to be better on the select number of games that you can win and that is not going to happen using Sag numbers unless you have some killer adjustments. You have to have killer numbers and killer adjustments. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FairWarning Posted February 23, 2019 Report Share Posted February 23, 2019 That's fine but you have to be BETTER than the line. You have to be better on the select number of games that you can win and that is not going to happen using Sag numbers unless you have some killer adjustments. You have to have killer numbers and killer adjustments.To beat the NBA this time of year, I find it easier to play on schedule spots. Numbers are just too tight. I don’t play much NBA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danshan Posted February 23, 2019 Report Share Posted February 23, 2019 I dont try and win, I try to get as close as possible to the closing line and bet the games once they hit max limits that show they have room to grow or go back to the closing line, hence generate line value! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machiavelli Posted February 23, 2019 Report Share Posted February 23, 2019 I like Dan's energy. Def very serious, but.....Sol be trying to enlighten him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danshan Posted February 23, 2019 Report Share Posted February 23, 2019 i forgot minnesota played last night so add another 1.5 so what is that 13.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rito Posted February 23, 2019 Report Share Posted February 23, 2019 Durito actually wrote some interesting stuff but he is another one of the good ol boys, I know everything and I cant listen or waste my so valuable time with people below my level. well folks I might have been at that dumb level but not anymore. I look at most things these jokers right now and just laugh. I spend my time with people that actually know this shit and chat with them not jerkoffs who are just good ol buddies who are living off their antique fame. These guys like this durito bag and ol timer are washed up and long gone. they need to put the keyboard down and go get their jello and nurse call at their retirement homes, the new guys are in town!Nah just people than can't write. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rito Posted February 23, 2019 Report Share Posted February 23, 2019 I dont try and win, I try to get as close as possible to the closing line and bet the games once they hit max limits that show they have room to grow or go back to the closing line, hence generate line value!Brilliant. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Downsouth Posted February 23, 2019 Report Share Posted February 23, 2019 Rito vs Danshan. How much? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danshan Posted February 23, 2019 Report Share Posted February 23, 2019 Brilliant. yeah I see, no lines, lines before lines come out shows skill. you dodge duck weave and dive but wont post any lines. Typical 1950s bettor talk. "I really like quinniapac after a 2 game win streak, I know coach Jones personally, his mom is in the same retirement home I am in" dont get mad durito bag you will get med call soon and shoot if you wait another few days you wont even remember this conversation! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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