milwaukee mike Posted February 17, 2019 Report Share Posted February 17, 2019 no way does ngannou/velasquez go 5 rounds tonight... 36 year olds that weigh 250 lbs just don't have that kind of stamina granted it's -700 but that still looks like value Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sweeper Posted February 17, 2019 Report Share Posted February 17, 2019 Cain takes him down all night just like Stipe did. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
milwaukee mike Posted February 17, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 17, 2019 Cain takes him down all night just like Stipe did. stipe was in good shape and was still dead tired... ngannou was even more dead tired and now is another year older cain has gone 5 rounds ONCE, and that was 7 years ago, ain't happening again Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teddy kgb Posted February 17, 2019 Report Share Posted February 17, 2019 Do you guy follow Kyle Marley on twitter? He just went tout but it seems to be only $10 a month for all his UFC picks.....seems to be pretty damn good but it reads like any other tout script so i don't know.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTiger Posted February 17, 2019 Report Share Posted February 17, 2019 Do you guy follow Kyle Marley on twitter? He just went tout but it seems to be only $10 a month for all his UFC picks.....seems to be pretty damn good but it reads like any other tout script so i don't know.. You are better off reading the MMA thread at 2+2, the better/more serious threads at Sherdog, and the threads here. Spend that $10 on refreshments for the fights. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teddy kgb Posted February 17, 2019 Report Share Posted February 17, 2019 You are better off reading the MMA thread at 2+2, the better/more serious threads at Sherdog, and the threads here. Spend that $10 on refreshments for the fights. I bought it anyway....10 bucks why not Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teddy kgb Posted February 17, 2019 Report Share Posted February 17, 2019 13 plays.....12 chalk and a +115 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
milwaukee mike Posted February 17, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 17, 2019 I bought it anyway....10 bucks why not give us the picks and we can discuss Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
milwaukee mike Posted February 17, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 17, 2019 13 plays.....12 chalk and a +115 every single chalk won last week... no way that kind of stuff happens again, i would lean all dogs just to flip the script Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teddy kgb Posted February 17, 2019 Report Share Posted February 17, 2019 When it comes to UFC on ESPN 1 on Sunday, which features Cain Velasquez vs. Frances Ngannou and James Vick vs. Paul Felder, you need to hear what top MMA expert Kyle Marley has to say.Marley won the first-ever 'ToutMaster' UFC betting contest sponsored by MMAOddsBreaker and appears regularly on multiple MMA betting/DFS shows. He watches every single fight for every single UFC card and does extensive research before each event.Over the last nine months alone, $100 bettors who have followed Marley's picks are up nearly $19,000! It's an astonishing cash rate that shows the depth of Marley's knowledge.At UFC 234 last week, Marley continued to amaze, nailing nine of 11 fights for a huge profit. He said, for instance, that Shane Young would beat Austin Arnett by a 30-27 unanimous decision. The result: Young won the lightweight bout with all three judges scoring it 30-27!Just three weeks ago, Marley said Henry Cejudo, a +175 underdog, would beat TJ Dillashaw by TKO -- and that's exactly what happened. He's the same expert who called Amanda Nunes' stunning upset of Cris Cyborg in UFC 232 and nailed Max Holloway's TKO of Brian Ortega in UFC 231. Anyone who has followed him is WAY up.We can tell you Marley is backing Manny Bermudez at -190 (13-0) to beat Benito Lopez (9-0, +160) in a clash of unbeaten bantamweights. "The Bermudez Triangle" has demolished the opposition so far in his young career. Only twice in 13 matches has the 24-year-old been pushed to the third round.Marley also has very strong picks for Cain Velasquez vs. Frances Ngannou and James Vick vs. Paul Felder. You ABSOLUTELY need to see his picks before making any picks of your own. Here are Marley's picks and writeups:Alexandra Albu via unanimous decisionI am not real impressed with either of these fighters but I think Albu will be much stronger than Emily Whitmire. Albu is the more likely fighter to finish the fight as well. I think she will be the one landing the harder shots and doing more damage on the feet, and I think her strength will help her if this fight goes to the mat. I think she can get takedowns and work some ground-and-pound to help her get the judges' nod, or a finish. The worry with Albu is that all that muscle drains her quickly and she gasses late in the fight like she did in her UFC debut. She was still able to get a win in that fight though, and I would assume she has worked on her cardio, so I am picking her to get the job done by a 29-28 unanimous decision.Luke Sanders via TKORenan Barao used to be a UFC champion and was considered one of the best P4P fighters in the world. That was about five years ago, though, and since then he is 2-6 and looks like a shell of his former self. This pick is more of a fade on Barao than it is me trusting Luke Sanders. Sanders is only 2-3 in the UFC, but I think he has more power at this point and I think he will have the wrestling advantage as well. After the downfall we have seen from Barao, I am not sure I could pick him over almost any legit UFC fighter these days.Jessica Penne via SubmissionThese fighters have a combined UFC record of 1-5. I would imagine the loser gets cut here and my guess is that will be Jodie Esquibel. I have never been impressed with Esquibel and I don't think she is really anywhere near UFC level, but she does have a winnable fight here because Penne has looked just as bad lately and is now 36, coming off nearly a two-year break. Penne has looked good in the past though and is the more well-rounded fighter, so I have to lean to her. On the feet this fight will be very close, but if Penne can get the fight to the ground then that will be the edge she needs, and she could pick up a submission. If she can't get the sub, then the ground game should at least give her the judges' nod, assuming she can get it there. If this fight stays standing for 15 minutes then Esquibel could pull off an upset in a close fight. Scott Holtzman via Unanimous DecisionHoltzman and Nik Lentz are similar-style fighters but I have to give the edge to Holtzman pretty much everywhere. I think he will be the more active fighter and he should be the stronger fighter as well, which should help him control where this fight takes place. I think he has more power on the feet, and I think he has the better wrestling [skills] as well. The only worry I have here with Holtzman is the guillotine from Lentz. Nik does have one of the best guillotines and he could catch Holtzman with it if he gets sloppy with takedowns. I expect Holtzman to keep this fight standing for the most part and if it's closer than he would like on the feet, he will use his wrestling to get the job done. Lentz is hard to finish so I will pick this to go all 15 minutes, but Holtzman is the pick here and I expect a 30-27 win. Andrea Lee via Split DecisionI think this fight is closer than the line indicates, but Lee is the rightful favorite. The longer this fight stays at distance, the more it will benefit Lee, and if she can stay on the outside and pick her shots then she should get the win. If Ashlee Evans-Smith can get this fight into the clinch or to the mat, then she should have the edge and she could pull the upset. I think Smith will be the better wrestler in this match and that is probably her only path to victory. I don't see her having much of a shot on the feet and I think Lee has a chance of stuffing takedowns and keeping this standing. I am going to lean with Lee to win two rounds with her striking, but I think Smith steals at least one round by getting a takedown or two and using her top control. Manny Bermudez via SubmissionThis is one of my favorite fights on the card and I think both of these guys will have solid UFC careers. Benito Lopez is a well-rounded fighter and I think he should have a slight edge on the feet in this matchup. He has a great ground game as well, but he is going against a guy with some of the slickest submissions I have seen. Bermudez will be the more dangerous guy if this fight hits the mat. I don't see this fight going the distance, so I would think TKO if Lopez wins and a submission if Bermudez wins. But I have to go with the favorite in this spot. He's been slightly more impressive so far. If Bermudez can get the fight to the ground, I don't think it will take long for him to lock up a submission.Jimmie Rivera via TKOI have gone back and forth on this fight and I almost went with the underdog, Aljamain Sterling. I am very high on both these fighters and I think both could contend for the title. Rivera is going to have the way better boxing and he will be the guy throwing the harder shots. Sterling will be looking to work his kicks on the feet, but ultimately he wants to get this fight to the ground. If he can get takedowns, he can win this fight via submission or a decision, if he can get them consistently. However, if this fight stays on the feet I have to give RIvera the edge and he could win via KO or a striking decision. Rivera does have 100% takedown defense in his UFC career so that is what made me side with him. I think he will be able to keep this fight standing; he will be the more active fighter on the feet and he also will be throwing the harder shots. I think he lands something hard along the way that drops Sterling and I think he finishes it up with some ground-and-pound. Andre Fili via Split DecisionThis is a super-close fight. Myles Jury and Andre Fili are both well-rounded fighters with a lot of high level experience. I expect this to be an all-around MMA fight where both guys have their moments on the feet and on the ground. I don't see either guy having a big edge and I think we are going to see a fun, 15-minute close decision. With Fili being the +140 underdog, I have to side with him if I am betting this fight. The ground stats for these two fighters are very similar, but on the feet Fili lands 1.12 more significant strikes per minute and I think that pace will be what gets the job done.Vicente Luque via SubmissionThis is my most confident pick of the card: I think Luque dominates this fight anywhere it goes. I expect him to be the better and more dangerous fighter on the feet, but I think he has an even bigger edge on the ground and there is much less danger there as well. I think Luque can win this fight via KO or a unanimous decision, but I see him looking for takedowns and if he can get them then I think he works his way to a submission. I think Bryan Barberena's only real shot is getting a KO, but Luque has never been KO'd in his career.Kron Gracie via SubmissionKron is the son of Rickson Gracie and the grandson of Helio Gracie, the family that created Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. To me, this looks like a setup fight for him to get a win in his UFC debut. And if this fight hits the mat even once, I think he gets it. Alex Caceres has been submitted six times in his career and he isn't so great on the feet that he can easily finish it there, or even keep it there. I think Gracie shoots for takedowns early and often and if he can complete them he will win via submission. I expect him to finish this fight in the first round and look very impressive doing it. Cynthia Calvillo via Unanimous DecisionThis is a clear striker vs. grappler matchup. Courtney Casey will be looking to keep this fight on the feet, and if she can, she should win. However, she does not have great takedown defense and Calvillo will have a big edge on the ground. I don't think Casey has the power to finish this fight standing so I have to favor Calvillo here; she should be able to consistently land takedowns and she might only need one to work her way to a submission. Her edge on the ground is much bigger than Casey's edge on the feet and if she can't pull off a submission then she should win a clear 30-27 with takedowns and top control throughout the fight. James Vick via Unanimous DecisionA couple days ago Vick was the underdog. Now the line has flipped and he is the slight favorite. I agree with the line movement and he is my pick for this fight. I think he should be around a -125 favorite here so if the line gets much higher than that, the value would be on Paul Felder. I think this fight is most likely going to stay standing for the majority and if it does hit the ground then I would give a slight edge to Vick. On the feet it is a close fight and Felder is probably more likely to get a knockout. But, if this fight goes to a decision, I expect the boxing from Vick to be the deciding factor. I think he will use his size and his jab to his advantage, and I see him playing it safe and not getting into any brawls with Felder. If he can avoid the KO, then I think Vick gets his hand raised.Cain Velasquez via TKO - (1u play at -182 odds)Francis Ngannou is a very scary striker and he has the power to KO anyone. Cain Velasquez was the main event when UFC debuted on FOX back in 2011 and he ended up losing that fight via KO. Now he is the main event on the ESPN debut and he is facing another heavy-handed striker. So, that is the worry here. However, I think it is only a worry for about six minutes of the possible 25. Cain is going to set a pace that Francis has never seen before and if Cain can land takedowns then he should dominate and wear down Ngannou. If Cain can make it out of Round 1, which I expect him to, then Ngannou is only live for another minute of so of the fight before Cain drags him into deep water. I don't see Ngannou being able to last five rounds with Cain so I think he get's TKO'd along the way. I think Cain lands takedowns early and uses his heavy top game and ground-and-pound to tire out Ngannou. Then I think he finishes him between Rounds 2 and 4. A few days ago, Cain was around -235 on the betting line and that was a little too high for my liking. But I think if we can get him under -200, then he is a good play and I had to take a one-unit shot at -182. As long as he can avoid the early KO, he should win and he should win impressively. 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milwaukee mike Posted February 17, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 17, 2019 no way is he up 190 units in the last 9 months on ufc he would have to go 10-3 every card Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teddy kgb Posted February 17, 2019 Report Share Posted February 17, 2019 no way is he up 190 units in the last 9 months on ufc he would have to go 10-3 every card Have you heard of the guy? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sweeper Posted February 17, 2019 Report Share Posted February 17, 2019 is this on regular espn? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
milwaukee mike Posted February 17, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 17, 2019 Have you heard of the guy? yeah, he has some decent analysis there, but he is a lying tool like every tout Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bfo Posted February 17, 2019 Report Share Posted February 17, 2019 is this on regular espn?Main card is, prelims on ESPN+. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teddy kgb Posted February 17, 2019 Report Share Posted February 17, 2019 I get all sports for $10 for 30 days....pretty cool and cheap just for the read.....heres Golf if anyone cares...has Horses alo The model's projected top 10:1 Dustin Johnson (8-1)2 Justin Thomas (11-1)3 Rory McIlroy (12-1)4 Bryson DeChambeau (16-1)5 Jon Rahm (12-1)6 Tommy Fleetwood (33-1)7 Tony Finau (28-1)8 Xander Schauffele (25-1)9 Bubba Watson (20-1)10 Matt Kuchar (28-1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTiger Posted February 17, 2019 Report Share Posted February 17, 2019 yeah, he has some decent analysis there, but he is a lying tool like every tout Concur. But I don't agree with his Cain V. selection. I think Cain's day passed him by. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teddy kgb Posted February 17, 2019 Report Share Posted February 17, 2019 They nailed a big race yesterday but I cant find the box so dont know what 1st paid or how they did top 4 4) 1. War of Will (5-2) - I don't see him losing unless he doesn't break well from the outside post position; has dusted the competition in both of his races on dirt and looks the part of a 3-year-old that we will be taking about a lot in May and June. Might be my Derby favorite if he looks like I think he will this weekend!(10) 2. Limonite (10-1) - Has hit the board in all four starts; love Steve Asmussen-trained horses off a layoff in this spot.(8) 3. Owendale (6-1) - Will improve off his first start as a 2-year-old, but not good enough to get the win.(1) 4. Plus Que Parfait (10-1) - Didn't have a great trip in the Lecomte; should be coming at the end if the pace is honest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sweeper Posted February 17, 2019 Report Share Posted February 17, 2019 what track? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
milwaukee mike Posted February 17, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 17, 2019 here's my usual bet for action there are 4 fights with totals of 1.5 rds... at least 3 of those should be finishes... so then you only need 3 out of the other 9 2/17/19 5:30pm MMA Props Fighting 10064 Fights to go distance under 7½ -185* vs Fights to go distance over 7½ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeinkeToWarrick Posted February 17, 2019 Report Share Posted February 17, 2019 They nailed a big race yesterday but I cant find the box so dont know what 1st paid or how they did top 4 4) 1. War of Will (5-2) - I don't see him losing unless he doesn't break well from the outside post position; has dusted the competition in both of his races on dirt and looks the part of a 3-year-old that we will be taking about a lot in May and June. Might be my Derby favorite if he looks like I think he will this weekend!(10) 2. Limonite (10-1) - Has hit the board in all four starts; love Steve Asmussen-trained horses off a layoff in this spot.(8) 3. Owendale (6-1) - Will improve off his first start as a 2-year-old, but not good enough to get the win.(1) 4. Plus Que Parfait (10-1) - Didn't have a great trip in the Lecomte; should be coming at the end if the pace is honest.That favorite won at even money and none of their other three finished second. They did not nail the Risen Star at Fairgrounds in the slightest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
housepicks Posted February 17, 2019 Report Share Posted February 17, 2019 I’d like to max bet Cain but that number coming so far down from the opener has me concerned. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
milwaukee mike Posted February 17, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 17, 2019 I’d like to max bet Cain but that number coming so far down from the opener has me concerned. i wouldn't touch it i think cain is gonna get rocked Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
housepicks Posted February 17, 2019 Report Share Posted February 17, 2019 You may want to look at KO in rd1 or 2 from Ngannu. My thoughts are inline with Teddy’s tout. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sweeper Posted February 17, 2019 Report Share Posted February 17, 2019 Not a good weekend for Nigerians, Cain TKO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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