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It's Jones with the bad line @-700 not Heritage +840 you big dummy...

How are the windows coming along Teddy?  Get to lickin' you twink :scooter

 

 

Thank you for your email. 

 

We can confirm the odds are currently at 

 

Fight Winner 

 

Jon Jones -700 

 

Anthony Smith +400 

 

Odds can be updated at any time. 

 

If you have any follow up questions we are here to help. 

 

Regards, 

 

Keven 

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I'd love to see Ngannou win the belt but I'm not convinced he has shored up his ground game enough to beat Cormier or Stipe.  His last 2 fights(wins) have both been early KOs and we did not really see him tested.  I really like him he is kind of a gentle giant but I don't think he matches up well against the 2 guys I mentioned.  That said, all he has to do is touch someone and they go to sleep so you can never count him out.

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When it comes to UFC Fight Night 145 Prague on Saturday, which features Jan Blachowicz vs. Thiago Santos in the main event, you need to hear what MMA expert Kle Marley has to say. The preliminary card starts at 11 a.m. ET on ESPN2, followed by the main card on ESPN+ at approximately 2 p.m. ET. 


Marley won the first-ever 'ToutMaster' UFC betting contest sponsored by MMAOddsBreaker and appears regularly on multiple MMA betting/DFS shows. He watches every single fight for every single UFC card and does extensive research before each event.


Over the last nine months alone, $100 bettors who have followed Marley's picks are up nearly $17,000! It's an astonishing cash rate that shows the depth of Marley's knowledge.


At the highly anticipated UFC on ESPN 1 last week, Marley posted another winning record and gave followers a strong underdog winner when accurately predicted Andre Fili (+120) winning by decision over Myles Jury. For UFC Fight Night 145 Prague, we can tell you Marley is backing Petr Yan (-260) to prevail via unanimous decision against Josh Dodson.


Marley also has picks locked in for Blachowicz vs. Santos and every other fight on this stacked card. You ABSOLUTELY need to see his picks before making any picks of your own. 


 

Here are Marley's picks and writeups (odds courtesy William HIll US) 


Damir Ismagulov vs. Joel Alvarez: Ismagulov via second-round TKO (-250)


This is a pretty solid curtain-jerker we have here. Neither guy is a very well known, which is probably why this is the first fight, but they are both skilled and only have a combined three losses in 35 total fights. Ismagulov is going to look to keep this fight standing because he does have a big edge in the striking department. If he does go for takedowns, I think he will land them, but I think Alvarez only shot to victory in this fight is a submission, so I don't think going for takedowns would be wise. I think Ismagulov will use his wrestling to defend takedowns and I think he keeps this fight on the feet for as long as the fight lasts. If he doesn't get a KO on the feet, then he should win a unanimous decision. Its submission or bust for Alvarez, in my opinion.  


Rustam Khabilov vs. Diego Ferreira: Khabilov via split decision (-130)


I think the winner of this fight will be ranked in the top 15 after this fight, and I think this will be a close fight. I think Khabilov will be the guy landing the harder shots on the feet, but Ferreira should be the guy fighting at the higher pace. If this is a 15-minute striking match, then I think it will be a close decision. I think if either guy can get top control on the ground then that could steal rounds and possibly win the fight. I do think Khabilov is the more likely fighter to land takedowns, but I think Ferreira is the more dangerous fighter on the ground with his submission ability.  I think this would be a dog or pass fight for me if I was looking to bet it, but I am going to lean with the slight favorite to get the job done by a close split decision. 


Michel Prazeres vs. Ismail Naurdiev: Prazeres via unanimous decision (-410)


I think Naurdiev is a solid prospect from what I have seen, but he is getting a real tough UFC debut here against Prazeres. Prazeres is a tank and if he wants to get takedowns then I think he will get them. He is willing to chain wrestle to get the fight to the mat where he wants it, and if he gets on top then I think he will grind out a win by being the stronger guy and better grappler. If he wants to test his standup game, then I think Naurdiev would stand a much better chance at winning. I just think if the striking isn't going well for Prazeres then he will get takedowns and he is just too good on top to let Naurdiev submit him from the bottom. However, at -410 and the biggest favorite on the card, I would say this is another dog or pass fight.  


Polo Reyes vs. Damir Hadzovic: Reyes via unanimous decision (-125)


This should be a fun, strike-filled fight. I don't see either fighter going for takedowns unless they get hurt on the feet and use takedowns as a way to recover. Either guy could get a knockout in this matchup, but if it goes all 15-minutes then I have to lean with Polo Reyes. I think he will be a bit bigger and he also strikes at a much higher pace. If he lands the harder strikes on the feet and is the one pushing the pace, I think it will be tough for Damir to get the judges nod. 


Gillian Robertson vs. Veronica Macedo: Robertson via second-round submission (-140)


This is my least-favorite fight on the card. I don't see this being a fun fight if it stays standing, but I do think Macedo would have the slight edge on the feet and I would pick her to win if that were the case. I don't see either fighter being able to get a (T)KO, and if it does stay standing for 15-minutes I think it will be a low paced, close fight. However, I do think Robertson has a decent edge on the ground and that is why she is the favorite here. I think if she can land takedowns then she can win the fight that way. She could lock up a submission, but even if she doesn't then I would think the wrestling and top control would at least give her the nod from the judges.  


Chris Fishgold vs. Daniel Teymur: Fishgold via third-round submission (-215)


This should be a fun fight. Both guys are pretty wild on the feet and I would expect this to be a crazy fight as long as it stays standing. I would give Teymur an edge in the striking department, but Fishgold would likely be the guy throwing more volume. I think Fishgold will be smart here though and go for takedowns and if he can land them, he should win this fight. He is a dangerous submission grappler and he should be able to dominate on the ground. I think he ends up finding a submission at some point in this fight, but even if he can't then I would favor him in a decision. I think Teymur's best path to victory is getting the knockout early in the fight.  


Carlo Pedersoli vs. Dwight Grant: Grant via KO (+110)


This is a good matchup. I think this is a close fight and guys could land heavy shots on the feet that end it. I think Grant has more power and I think he would be more likely to get the KO, especially because Pedersoli was knocked out only five months ago. But I think Pedersoli is the more well-rounded fighter and if he can get the fight to the ground then I think he could lock up a submission. If the fight stays standing for 15 minutes, then I think he is the rightful favorite and I think him striking at the higher rate would help him get his hand raised. However, I hate seeing fighters come back so fast after being knocked out cold, and I don't see that going well against a heavy striker like Grant. I am going to take the underdog in this matchup and I think he gets it done. . 


Magomed Ankalaev vs. Klidson Farias De Abreu: Ankalaev via unanimous decision (-230)


These are two solid prospects, and this is one of the fights I am looking forward to the most on the card. I think De Abreu is a live dog here, but he will need to get the fight to the mat and probably get a submission. If he can't get the fight to the mat then I think Ankalaev wins a decision, or maybe even knocks him out. I also think Ankalaev can land takedowns of his own and work some ground and pound, but I don't think that would be in his best interest. 


Petr Yan vs. John Dodson: Yan via unanimous decision (-260)


I am very high on Petr Yan and I think he could be a future champion. Dodson has had a couple shots at the title, and has beat the champ TJ Dillashaw, but times have changed and now he is the underdog against the up and coming prospect. I think the only way Yan loses this fight is by getting knocked out. He is going to be landing the better shots and he will be striking at a much higher pace. I think this fight stays standing as long as it lasts, but I think if there were takedowns then it would be Yan getting them. I think this is going to be a 3 round impressive performance for Yan where he picks up a clear 30-27 victory.


Liz Carmouche vs. Lucie Pudilova: Pudilova via unanimous decision (+120)


This is a striker vs grappler match. Carmouche is the grappler and she is now 35 years old and will be traveling over to the Czech Republic to fight a 24-year-old solid prospect in Pudilova, in her home country. I think Carmouche can land takedowns in this spot, but I don't see her getting a finish at all, and if she can't keep the fight on the ground and in top control, then she will get pieced up on the feet. Pudilova is the much better striker and she throws strikes at the higher rate as well. With this being in her home country, I don't see the judges giving it to Carmouche if it is close, and I think Pudilova is also the more likely fighter to finish as well. I am taking the underdog here.


Michal Oleksiejczuk vs. Gian Villante: Oleksjejczuk via unanimous decision (-190)


I think the line is right on this one and I think Oleksjejczuk is the rightful favorite. I think he is going to be the fighter landing more striker and if there are takedowns in this fight I would think he is the one getting them. Both guys could get knocked out on the feet, but if this is a 3-round striking match, which is what I expect, then I favor Oleksjejczuk to get his hand raised at the end. 


Marcos Rogerio de Lima vs. Stefan Struve: de Lima via split decision (-130)


 Struve is going to be 10 inches taller and has a 9-inch reach advantage in this fight. He is also good off his back and could get a submission from the bottom. He should also have the better gas tank, so he is a live underdog in this spot. However, I think he is slowing down and probably coming to the end of his career. I think de Lima is the more likely fighter to get a knockout and I think he could get it standing or with ground and pound. I think he would be the guy getting takedowns as well, and if he doesn't get submitted then he should be winning on the ground as well. I am not confident in this pick, but I will go with the favorite to squeak out a decision. I think he will land the harder shots, maybe even get a knockdown, but ultimately doing more overall to get the judges nod. 


Thiago Santos vs. Jan Blachowicz: Santos via TKO (-110) 


This should be an awesome fight. Both guys are on a roll and the winner could be in title contention after the fight. I think Santos is the more dangerous striker and he also strikes at the much higher pace, landing 5.02 significant strikes per minute compared to 3.64 from Jan. If this fight stays standing then I think Santos gets a KO or a decision win by being the better striker and landing the harder shots, at the higher rate. However, the path to victory for Jan is by getting this fight to the ground and using his grappling to win a decision that way or even work towards a submission. The line for Fight Doesn't Go To Decision is currently -400 and, if there is going to be a finish, I favor Santos. He is going to be my pick by 2nd round knockout. 




 



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I put in a parlay on Prazeres, Fishgold and Yan.

 

then I like Thiago Santos by KO and will also put a bit by him winning in round 1 and round 2....if you have never seen Santos fight, be sure to tune in.  He is an absolute savage and brings constant forward pressure.  He looks even better since he moved up a weight class and doesn't have to suffer from the weight cut anymore.  

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