rito Posted March 21, 2019 Report Share Posted March 21, 2019 Don’t waste your time building a baseball model. Can’t be beaten. BAUSI'm working on one right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kovacsbar Posted March 21, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 21, 2019 Finished mine will test for two weeks starting April 25 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machiavelli Posted March 21, 2019 Report Share Posted March 21, 2019 Bill James is a genius , a lot of his numbers need depth.. He says his stats are orphans, it's up to you to adopt and adapt.I like him. Was just messing with ya. I like to blend analytics with old school scouting and wisdom. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MonkeyF0cker Posted March 21, 2019 Report Share Posted March 21, 2019 Finished mine will test for two weeks starting April 25 JFC. Clueless. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brayden11 Posted March 21, 2019 Report Share Posted March 21, 2019 Finished mine will test for two weeks starting April 25Hmm..Maybe it'll bail you out hole you dug in the Sinker 100 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MonkeyF0cker Posted March 21, 2019 Report Share Posted March 21, 2019 Hmm..Maybe it'll bail you out hole you dug in the Sinker 100 Highly doubtful if he doesn't know how to test a model before betting it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kovacsbar Posted March 22, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 22, 2019 No I think I'm pretty well berried there but we'll see. Variance is a two way street and I'll make an effort Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BAUS Posted March 22, 2019 Report Share Posted March 22, 2019 I'm working on one right now.Keep us posted. BAUS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brock Landers Posted March 22, 2019 Report Share Posted March 22, 2019 Baseball has changed to the point where first 5 innings is one of the only bets, or totals, to make. Starters rarely go more than 6 innings anymore and bullpens are a crap shoot more than half the time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MonkeyF0cker Posted March 22, 2019 Report Share Posted March 22, 2019 Baseball has changed to the point where first 5 innings is one of the only bets, or totals, to make. Starters rarely go more than 6 innings anymore and bullpens are a crap shoot more than half the time. They are? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajt Posted March 22, 2019 Report Share Posted March 22, 2019 Baseball has changed to the point where first 5 innings is one of the only bets, or totals, to make. Starters rarely go more than 6 innings anymore and bullpens are a crap shoot more than half the time.Idiot Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FairWarning Posted March 22, 2019 Report Share Posted March 22, 2019 They are?For the most part yes. You use 3-4 RP every game, chances are someone is going to blow up. At least in the five inning bet, you get 5 innings of AB’s if you have them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kovacsbar Posted March 22, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 22, 2019 Baseball has changed to the point where first 5 innings is one of the only bets, or totals, to make. Starters rarely go more than 6 innings anymore and bullpens are a crap shoot more than half the time.Weather changes, substitutions and unpredictable batting orders, extra innings. Full game = crapshoot Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rito Posted March 22, 2019 Report Share Posted March 22, 2019 Then 5i lines should = game line right Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FISHHEAD Posted March 22, 2019 Report Share Posted March 22, 2019 Baseball has changed to the point where first 5 innings is one of the only bets, or totals, to make. 1st inning YES/NO run scored Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kovacsbar Posted March 22, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 22, 2019 Then 5i lines should = game line right Does all available information create a more efficient market in a five inning market ? Sure it does. The law of large numbers dials that in even tighter. Samples are way more consistent as well. Should be way tougher to beat right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kovacsbar Posted March 22, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 22, 2019 If I wanna use the success of a starting lineup against the spin rate of C.C. Sabathia's cutter in my model, it doesn't apply at all to innings 6-9. So I'm a sitting duck for that market. I can replicate the science of 5 innings and grind out 8-10% or throw my money in the shitter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kovacsbar Posted March 22, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 22, 2019 Matchbook helps often but I'm mostly Pinnacle so that's even tougher. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MonkeyF0cker Posted March 22, 2019 Report Share Posted March 22, 2019 Does all available information create a more efficient market in a five inning market ? Sure it does. The law of large numbers dials that in even tighter. Samples are way more consistent as well. Should be way tougher to beat right? Too bad you're looking at it backwards. The game line is not based off of the 5 inning line. And if people can't figure out how to handicap bullpens, that's a huge advantage over the market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MonkeyF0cker Posted March 22, 2019 Report Share Posted March 22, 2019 If I wanna use the success of a starting lineup against the spin rate of C.C. Sabathia's cutter in my model, it doesn't apply at all to innings 6-9. So I'm a sitting duck for that market. I can replicate the science of 5 innings and grind out 8-10% or throw my money in the shitter. Because CC Sabathia is always going to go at least 5? LOL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brock Landers Posted March 22, 2019 Report Share Posted March 22, 2019 Baseball is THE most random sport of all Handicap bullpens? That's a daily crap shoot Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MonkeyF0cker Posted March 22, 2019 Report Share Posted March 22, 2019 Baseball is THE most random sport of all Handicap bullpens? That's a daily crap shoot Just like a "crap shoot", the odds can be estimated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FISHHEAD Posted March 22, 2019 Report Share Posted March 22, 2019 Baseball is THE most random sport of all Handicap bullpens? That's a daily crap shoot ……….and also according to your bible, spring training wagering should be avoided at all costs. Did you buy this bible on ebay, or write it yourself???? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rito Posted March 22, 2019 Report Share Posted March 22, 2019 Does all available information create a more efficient market in a five inning market ? Sure it does. The law of large numbers dials that in even tighter. Samples are way more consistent as well. Should be way tougher to beat right?Then why are limits so much lower Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rito Posted March 22, 2019 Report Share Posted March 22, 2019 If I wanna use the success of a starting lineup against the spin rate of C.C. Sabathia's cutter in my model, it doesn't apply at all to innings 6-9. So I'm a sitting duck for that market. I can replicate the science of 5 innings and grind out 8-10% or throw my money in the shitter.8-10% holy shit must have best model ever made Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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