WeinkeToWarrick Posted June 13, 2019 Report Share Posted June 13, 2019 Seems smart Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingKolzig Posted June 13, 2019 Report Share Posted June 13, 2019 some pitchers are better innings 2-6..........like Clemens i think sucked in the first. so good starters will always be around for 6-7 innings as they gain momentum Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kovacsbar Posted June 13, 2019 Report Share Posted June 13, 2019 MLB will adapt statistically soon. Baseball Reference has already altered the formula for WAR but fortunately have kept daily WAR logs. This guys get paid by performance and both the MLBPA and player agents are not gonna let this new approach morph into a way to cheapen payroll. https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2019/3/25/18280667/opener-war-warp-ryan-yarbrough-tampa-bay-rays-relief-pitchers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kovacsbar Posted June 13, 2019 Report Share Posted June 13, 2019 https://www.sports-reference.com/blog/2019/03/2019-war-update/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FairWarning Posted June 13, 2019 Report Share Posted June 13, 2019 https://www.sports-reference.com/blog/2019/03/2019-war-update/Good find, thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingKolzig Posted June 13, 2019 Report Share Posted June 13, 2019 most of the time its just good to put a starter in 5+ innings then it is a bunch of guys Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FairWarning Posted June 14, 2019 Report Share Posted June 14, 2019 most of the time its just good to put a starter in 5+ innings then it is a bunch of guysBut teams can stack a lineup knowing who the starter is and assuming they will see that pitcher 2X min. Start a RP and no one knows how long he's in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danshan Posted June 14, 2019 Report Share Posted June 14, 2019 do you think books might lower MLB game limits if they dont have a real good grip on who is pitching? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Always Call Heads Posted June 14, 2019 Report Share Posted June 14, 2019 disagree there are some big reasons to start with a reliever in the 1st inning instead of the 9th 1) make sure he goes against the top of the lineup2) if he is going to pitch 1 inning anyway, the 1st is just as important as the 9th3) "true" starter has to potentially go through the top of the lineup 1 less time even if he's pitching the same # of innings i hate it for betting purposes, but any team not doing this is just plain stupid... like when nobody was following analytics, rotating their outfield/infield defensively, etc etc It might be an advantage on some small scale. But on the other hand, if your starter does poorly, you have wasted an outing for a top reliever in a good spot. You will definitely not maximize the use of the reliever. If there is an advantage, I think it is small. Playoffs would be something different. By the way, now that Yankee Doodle has had his estrogen rage can we get this IP ban lifted. Or at least ban this one too. I am all for love between consenting degens but it has its dangers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kovacsbar Posted June 14, 2019 Report Share Posted June 14, 2019 do you think books might lower MLB game limits if they dont have a real good grip on who is pitching?The biggest ass pain so far is late openers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rito Posted June 14, 2019 Report Share Posted June 14, 2019 Only late openers are teams that haven't announced a starter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Always Call Heads Posted June 14, 2019 Report Share Posted June 14, 2019 What kind of changes does this cause? I can see it maybe changing FF. But the game odds I would not think would change much and if they do, it is probably an advantage. The same pitchers are going to pitch and throw the same number of innings so I don't see how the forecast changes much. If anything, it probably overestimates the impact of the change. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TobyTyler Posted June 14, 2019 Report Share Posted June 14, 2019 i have noticed couple times a Rays beat writer (i think was Rays) had tweeted what their pitching plan was for the second pitcher in after speaking to coach, and he also speculated third in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Always Call Heads Posted June 14, 2019 Report Share Posted June 14, 2019 I have not followed baseball in forever. The last I heard, the stats guys were advocating using closers at times when the game was potentially on the line such as 6th or 7th. Are they using the "closer" in the the first or just a good set up guy? This seems the complete opposite of what the stats guys have advocated in the past. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danshan Posted June 14, 2019 Report Share Posted June 14, 2019 less certain conditions seems to cause lower limits and higher vig! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Always Call Heads Posted June 14, 2019 Report Share Posted June 14, 2019 I don't really see any advantage to this at all. I can see it a decent idea back in the 80s when you had platooning but platooning is dead. Relief pitchers are marginal pitchers. They are good because they can come in blowing hot and face weaker hitters that are more likely to be overwhelmed by their stuff. When you use a reliever in the first, you are matching him against the type of hitters he is least likely to be able to get out and doing it with the bases empty when there is no leverage to his appearance. The starter is the guy most equipped to get out the top of the lineup. That is why he is a starter. And he is most equipped to get them out in the first inning. That is when he has his best stuff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danshan Posted June 14, 2019 Report Share Posted June 14, 2019 Rays kinda started a thing with bullpen days, they would bring in a short reliever for the 1st inning and bring in a middle reliever for the middle and if needed go to a closer or a short reliever at the end. something like 3 outs, 10-15 outs, and ??? based on current game situations and pitcher performance, "bullpen day" now its something offenses have really not tried to counter as far as I know and I am not sure what the counter would be but they will create one! books obviously cannot predict accurately who is pitching and how long so I would think if the line starts getting not very efficient they will lower limits and increase juice Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Always Call Heads Posted June 14, 2019 Report Share Posted June 14, 2019 Rays kinda started a thing with bullpen days, they would bring in a short reliever for the 1st inning and bring in a middle reliever for the middle and if needed go to a closer or a short reliever at the end. something like 3 outs, 10-15 outs, and ??? based on current game situations and pitcher performance, "bullpen day" now its something offenses have really not tried to counter as far as I know and I am not sure what the counter would be but they will create one! books obviously cannot predict accurately who is pitching and how long so I would think if the line starts getting not very efficient they will lower limits and increase juiceOK, that seems about right. They are riffing off the four-man rotation idea. I guess you can get a few good games out of it. But in the end, you are going to overexpose the bullpen. If you don't have the starters, you are not going to compete but that does not matter when it comes to betting the game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kovacsbar Posted June 14, 2019 Report Share Posted June 14, 2019 Only late openers are teams that haven't announced a starter the teams going with openers are often more undecided. Flip the 1's and 2's after lineups posted. I just don't bother with these reliever opener games right now. I can't calculate an edge with any accuracy at all other than first innings which I avoid basically because of what happened with your wager yesterday. If umpire is being a dick I want a chance to adjust to adjust. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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