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Official Dem Nominee Thread (NO POLITICS - JUST BETTING TALK)


tailsyoulose
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Great, common sense article:

 

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/what-biden-really-needs-vp-pick

 

What Biden Really Needs From a VP Pick
 

We are in an incredibly volatile time and a stable political environment. President Trump's political standing, while still weak, seems to have stabilized. Yet, at the same time we don't seem to be making any real progress in getting the COVID-19 crisis under control. 

Every one of our major normal political touchstones (campaign rallies, political conventions, and non-stop campaign process stories) has been eliminated or greatly altered. This means political reporters, activists and cable news chatters are bereft of much of their traditional sustenance. 

But, one campaign staple has remained: the hand-wringing and over-analyzation of the Vice Presidential vetting process. 

I usually avoid getting sucked into the VP speculation frenzy. No one votes for — or against — a presidential candidate because of his/her running mate.

That's doubly true this year. The race for the White House isn't so much between Biden and Trump; it is between Trump and not-Trump. Or, as Kabir Khanna, an election analyst for CBS news put it: "While most Trump supporters say they're mainly voting for him because they like him, about half of Biden voters say opposition to Mr. Trump is driving their vote. Together, this means that across parties, most voters are basing their decisions mainly on how they feel about the president. Biden backers appear to express less enthusiasm, in part, because they are driven more by antipathy toward Mr. Trump than loving their candidate."

But, won't this the lack of "enthusiasm" for Biden's candidacy hurt him? And, can't the right VP pick help to mitigate that? 

 For one, we know that anger — not love — is the greatest motivator for voting. And, we know that there's more deep antipathy to Trump than strong approval for him. In the latest Fox News poll (July 12-15), 45 percent of Americans strongly disapprove of the job Trump is doing as president; that's 17 points higher than those who strongly approve of the job he's doing. 

That gap — with more strongly disapproving than approving of Trump — has been there since the beginning of his presidency.

Veteran pollster Mark Blumenthal argues that it's misleading to assume that enthusiasm to vote automatically translates into the intent to vote. For example, when respondents of the Economist/YouGov survey were asked if they are "enthusiastic" about their candidate, "better than two-thirds of Trump supporters (68%) felt "enthusiastic" about him compared to 40 percent of Biden supporters who felt the same about him." So, a win for Trump, right?

But, when you drop the word "enthusiasm" from the question and replace it with the word "important" ("how important is voting for President this November,"), the gap disappears. Just as many Biden voters (92 percent) as Trump supporters (91 percent) consider voting this year to be very important. Blumenthal also points to recent studies by CBS and the Democratic polling firm Global Strategy Group which found that a person's stated enthusiasm wasn't predictive of whether they showed up to vote. 

It's also true that younger voters, and especially younger voters of color, have long been cool to Biden's candidacy. Putting a Black woman on the ticket doesn't suddenly turn them into Biden stans. But, it does at least say to these voters that he understands the important role that Black voters and, specifically, Black women play in the party. Putting the first woman of color on a major party ticket would also help mute the very unhistoric candidacy of yet another older, white guy. 

At this moment of racial reckoning, it would be riskier for Biden not to choose a woman of color as his Vice President. The choice of Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer or Sen. Elizabeth Warren feels like the political equivalent of 'not reading the room.' 

Given Biden's age, his VP pick will also get more attention than usual from voters. After all, it's not inconceivable that this person will be asked to step in to take over the most stressful job in the world. This isn't the time for outsiders. Someone who understands how Washington works — and has been a part of it — is a plus. The four most-oft mentioned Black women; former UN Ambassador Susan Rice, Reps. Val Demings and Karen Bass and Sen. Kamala Harris, all have Washington experience. But, none of them have been tested and vetted the way Harris has. She didn't run a flawless campaign. But, she has experience on the presidential stage that the others don't. She's not a household name, but she is familiar. And, while she doesn't have the depth of White House experience as Rice, she has notably less baggage. According to press reports, Harris's biggest drawbacks are that she is overly ambitious, opportunistic and disloyal. These are things insiders care about; regular voters could care less. They just want to be assured that their president is loyal to them

Biden is in the enviable position of leading this race with less than four months to go. He doesn't need to convince voters that Trump isn't doing a good job — a majority already feel that way. What he does need to do is assure them that he isn't a risky pick. One way to do this is to pick a VP that voters see as capable and experienced enough to take over if he can't continue to do his job. It's really not any more complicated than that. 

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If Biden picks a white woman would the Back Dems be like "Fuck this ninja" or would they still reluctantly help him win?

The latter, but not as enthusiastically and maybe not in as great numbers.  It would be a stupid move by a guy who doesn't need to make a stupid move at this point.   Just read what Maxine Waters said.   That's all one needs to know.   Will Maxine still vote for, campaign for, and hope for Biden?  Of course, but maybe some of her followers won't.   I keep coming back to it, but it's a truism.  Do no harm.  That should be the Biden Mantra for VP, and Kamala does the least harm,  to the base Biden needs to win.  

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Makes me want to bet even more on Whitmer actually.

There are times to be a contrarian, and times to realize it makes no sense to be.  I'm usually a contrarian.  Not this time because common sense says this isn't the time to be one.   Biden would have too much to lose to not go with conventional thinking.   If he was down in the polls, then he could say F it, and get risky, like McCain did.   He's not.  

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The latter, but not as enthusiastically and maybe not in as great numbers.  It would be a stupid move by a guy who doesn't need to make a stupid move at this point.   Just read what Maxine Waters said.   That's all one needs to know.   Will Maxine still vote for, campaign for, and hope for Biden?  Of course, but maybe some of her followers won't.   I keep coming back to it, but it's a truism.  Do no harm.  That should be the Biden Mantra for VP, and Kamala does the least harm,  to the base Biden needs to win.  

 

Maxine Waters' opinion means absolutely nothing. No one remotely cares what she thinks. No one remotely cares what a bunch of fuktards on twitter think either.

 

Biden is already being smeared by feminist nazis because by picking a woman he is "enforcing female submission" or some such bullshit.

 

Picking a black woman will get him called a racist by those woketards just as much as picking a white woman. Perhaps even more, since when you give them an inch they just keep clawing at you ten times harder.

 

The VP does not need to be black. 

 

Raimondo is still in the game BTW.

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Maxine Waters' opinion means absolutely nothing. No one remotely cares what she thinks. No one remotely cares what a bunch of fuktards on twitter think either.

 

Biden is already being smeared by feminist nazis because by picking a woman he is "enforcing female submission" or some such bullshit.

 

Picking a black woman will get him called a racist by those woketards just as much as picking a white woman. Perhaps even more, since when you give them an inch they just keep clawing at you ten times harder.

 

The VP does not need to be black. 

 

Raimondo is still in the game BTW.

Maybe to you, maybe to me.  But her voice and her opinion do matter.   You let your feelings influence your betting, and that is always a mistake.  

The VP does need to be a minority woman.  The only question is if Biden is smart enough and logical enough to get it, or if the logical people in his campaign will be persuasive enough to get him to see the logic and act on it.  I think he/they will.  They usually do, especially when a candidate is playing it safe, as Biden should be.  

When is the last time a total out of left fielder like Raimondo got it?   Please don't say Palin.   She was heavily pushed by Party insiders like Kristol and Schmidt(who will never forgive himself).  I know all about the flight logs.  More irrelevant noise, IMO. 

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Sold!!@

 

But its not a good retirement home.

Bedrooms all upstairs.

Yard=tons work

On plus side

It comes with lawn mower and hot tub. Legion, moose,eagles,golf course,3 restaurant bars,ace hardware,walmart all within 3 miles.

Yet its in the country.

 

But to go from Miami Beach to here? You have lost your mind.

I would keep a home here as well
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I'm not sure Biden ever said it was going to be a Black woman, just a woman.  In any event, it morphed into thinking it would be a black woman because the best qualified candidates are Black Women at this time, and it makes political sense.   Now that it's been assumed it'll be a black woman, it almost has to be, because he'll suffer backlash if it isn't.   If you doubt that, read this article.   IMO, The Whitmer float, other Floats are just noise.   It'll be one of the top 2, The Giant or Rice. 

 

 https://thehill.com/homenews/house/511145-maxine-waters-says-biden-cant-go-home-without-a-black-woman-being-vp

 

Maxine Waters says Biden 'can't go home without a Black woman being VP'

Biden, NEVER said (explicitly) that it would be a Black Woman:

 

An interview from July 20th, where Biden explicitly states that he is NOT (necessarily) committed to choosing a Black Woman.

 

Biden says four Black women are on his VP list, but won’t commit to choosing one

 

Biden told MSNBC’s Joy Reid on the premiere of her prime time show “The ReidOut,” however, that he is not committed to a Black woman definitely being his running mate.

 

“I am not committed any but the people I’ve named and among them are four Black women,” Biden said.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/20/bide...osing-one.html

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What are you hearing Tails.....talk to me

 

well kiss your bass bets goodbye i think shes dead in the water. 

 

duck has life though:

 

yuRGNHj.png

 

this could very well be a scam (ie dont go bet a shit ton on it), but ive looked at the wiki edits, and they are pretty extensive, and ALL relate to her image regarding identity politics, citizenship, etc etc. if someone was doing this to try to manipulate the market, its a hell of a commitment just to try and make a few bucks.

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