Propswatcher Posted August 16, 2014 Report Share Posted August 16, 2014 To keep the BS to a minimum I'll jump right in. NFL win totals are the first gauge I use when looking at a team for the year. The market has settled in on these, but there is definite value specifically going against some market moves. Here's my win totals for this upcoming year. Couple teams worth going against the market IMO. Bears U 8.5 +145 : The defense was absolutely brutal last year. They gave up 6.2 yards per play, that was last in league, they haven't done enough in the offseason to make the D better. SOS was 30th last year, that will be tougher with a Vikings improvement and Rogers back for GB. NYJ U 7 +140 : I just can't figure out why money is coming on the over here. By expected pythag wins the Jets were the luckiest team in the NFL in 2013. Their expected wins were 5.37 they exceeded that by almost 3 wins. With Geno and Vick as the QB's I'll take the under thanks. Here's the rest of my win totals. [TABLE] [TR] [TD]Arizona[/TD] [TD]6.85[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Atlanta[/TD] [TD]8.16[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Baltimore[/TD] [TD]8.45[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Buffalo[/TD] [TD]6.31[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Carolina[/TD] [TD]6.76[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Chicago[/TD] [TD]7.85[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Cincy[/TD] [TD]8.22[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Cleveland[/TD] [TD]6.17[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Dallas[/TD] [TD]6.92[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Denver[/TD] [TD]11.6[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Detroit[/TD] [TD]8.28[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Green Bay[/TD] [TD]9.92[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Houston[/TD] [TD]7.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Indy[/TD] [TD]8.75[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Jax[/TD] [TD]4.83[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]KC[/TD] [TD]7.43[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Mia[/TD] [TD]7.99[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Minny[/TD] [TD]6.85[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]NEW Eng[/TD] [TD]11.14[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]New Orl[/TD] [TD]10.87[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]NYG[/TD] [TD]7.06[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]NYJ[/TD] [TD]5.58[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Oakland[/TD] [TD]5.16[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Philly[/TD] [TD]9.72[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Pit[/TD] [TD]8.85[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]SD[/TD] [TD]7.8[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Sea[/TD] [TD]11.3[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]SF[/TD] [TD]11.14[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]St. Louis[/TD] [TD]6.8[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Tampa[/TD] [TD]6.82[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Ten[/TD] [TD]7.34[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Wash[/TD] [TD]7.58[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trytrytry Posted August 16, 2014 Report Share Posted August 16, 2014 do your numbers add to a full correct number of wins and losses for the league? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Propswatcher Posted August 16, 2014 Author Report Share Posted August 16, 2014 Yes they do. Pretty much the way win totals are done is use power ratings to come up with lines for every game, then convert the line into a winning % for that game. Each game will have a win value, E.G. Broncos .9 wins, Raiders .1 wins. Some crazier folks will use a random number generator to simulate how each game plays out over many seasons. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FakeDeemer Posted August 16, 2014 Report Share Posted August 16, 2014 The browns easily get 7 wins this season Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GameBred Posted August 16, 2014 Report Share Posted August 16, 2014 Great post. Any idea how/why a half-win in NFL season win totals is worth ~50-cents? I have heard this for years and have just accepted it but I would love to know how they determine that. If you could shed any light, I would appreciate it. Thank you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Propswatcher Posted August 17, 2014 Author Report Share Posted August 17, 2014 Personally I haven't run the specific numbers, but the cent value is in relation to how many games and how much a win is worth. CFB has less games so each game is worth more. (Not earth shattering info here.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Propswatcher Posted August 17, 2014 Author Report Share Posted August 17, 2014 Here's the Pythagorean wins for each team from last year. For those unfamiliar, pythagorean are expected wins based off points scored vs points given. E.G. A team that won a lot of close games but lost a lot of blowouts will have a lower expected pythag win total. Over the years it is a good angle/help to determine which teams progress/regress in wins the next year. [TABLE] [TR] [TD]2013[/TD] [TD]pthag wins[/TD] [TD]actual wins[/TD] [TD]difference[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Arizona[/TD] [TD]9.47[/TD] [TD]10[/TD] [TD]-0.53[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Atlanta[/TD] [TD]5.9[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #93c47d]1.9[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Baltimore[/TD] [TD]7.1[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]-0.9[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Buffalo[/TD] [TD]6.73[/TD] [TD]6[/TD] [TD]0.73[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Carolina[/TD] [TD]11.67[/TD] [TD]12[/TD] [TD]-0.33[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Chicago[/TD] [TD]7.32[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]-0.68[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Cincy[/TD] [TD]11.09[/TD] [TD]11[/TD] [TD]0.09[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Cleveland[/TD] [TD]5.47[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #93c47d]1.47[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Dallas[/TD] [TD]8.15[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]0.15[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Denver[/TD] [TD]11.67[/TD] [TD]13[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #e06666]-1.33[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Detroit[/TD] [TD]8.47[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #93c47d]1.47[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Green Bay[/TD] [TD]7.75[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]-0.25[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Houston[/TD] [TD]4.18[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #93c47d]2.18[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Indy[/TD] [TD]9.42[/TD] [TD]11[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #e06666]-1.58[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Jax[/TD] [TD]3.12[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]-0.88[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]KC[/TD] [TD]11.09[/TD] [TD]11[/TD] [TD]0.09[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Mia[/TD] [TD]7.48[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]-0.52[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Minny[/TD] [TD]6.09[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #6aa84f]1.09[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]NEW Eng[/TD] [TD]10.5[/TD] [TD]12[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #e06666]-1.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]New Orl[/TD] [TD]10.8[/TD] [TD]11[/TD] [TD]-0.2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]NYG[/TD] [TD]5.57[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #e06666]-1.43[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]NYJ[/TD] [TD]5.37[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #e06666]-2.63[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Oakland[/TD] [TD]4.93[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]0.93[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Philly[/TD] [TD]9.37[/TD] [TD]10[/TD] [TD]-0.63[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Pit[/TD] [TD]8.23[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]0.23[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]SD[/TD] [TD]9.22[/TD] [TD]9[/TD] [TD]0.22[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]SF[/TD] [TD]11.54[/TD] [TD]12[/TD] [TD]-0.46[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Sea[/TD] [TD]12.83[/TD] [TD]13[/TD] [TD]-0.17[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]St. Louis[/TD] [TD]7.57[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]0.57[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Tampa[/TD] [TD]5.26[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #93c47d]1.26[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Ten[/TD] [TD]7.52[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]0.52[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Wash[/TD] [TD]4.79[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #93c47d]1.79[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Mods can we merge the two NFL win total threads, thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GameBred Posted August 18, 2014 Report Share Posted August 18, 2014 Personally I haven't run the specific numbers' date=' but the cent value is in relation to how many games and how much a win is worth. CFB has less games so each game is worth more. (Not earth shattering info here.) [/quote'] Thank you PW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying Dutchman Posted August 18, 2014 Report Share Posted August 18, 2014 Props, are you using Pythag on each game or season total? There is a fair amount of evidence that Pythag on each game is better. Also, as you go back in the years, you'll see the pythag football "factor" vary year-to-year. It might be interesting to use the pythag "factor" variation from each year as possible variation for this year. 2.37 is the typical factor published for the NFL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike75 Posted August 18, 2014 Report Share Posted August 18, 2014 Hey Kinger,everyone,like the new site,thumbs up! gotta post some of my opinions on this years NFL totals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thebrush5 Posted August 19, 2014 Report Share Posted August 19, 2014 Big move from a few of my locals on the saints division title to -170/-175, -120 on 5dimes. It was +120 - +145 a few weeks ago. Did I miss something? Sorry to change the subject a little but didn't think it deserved its own thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Propswatcher Posted August 21, 2014 Author Report Share Posted August 21, 2014 Dutchman, I did use the season pythag. The game to game would be better, quite a bit of legwork there. I did use the usual 2.37 factor. It would be interesting to see the variance on those year to year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Propswatcher Posted August 21, 2014 Author Report Share Posted August 21, 2014 Big move from a few of my locals on the saints division title to -170/-175' date=' -120 on 5dimes. It was +120 - +145 a few weeks ago. Did I miss something? Sorry to change the subject a little but didn't think it deserved its own thread.[/quote'] No worries. Saints are quite the darlings this year. I mentioned in the the NFC South thread, but lots of smart guys I know love them this year. Personally they are my pick to win the NFC. They also happen to be loved by the recreational/novice bettor. I'm sure every local, offshore, and Vegas book were taking one way action to win the division. Carolina expected to regress, Falcons are soft on D and their O line, and Tampa is inferior on overall talent. An adjustment had to be made. In your case with your locals at -170 that is quite a shaded line. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fifty cint Posted August 21, 2014 Report Share Posted August 21, 2014 I like The Chargers over. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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