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NCAA Tournament Plays and Discussion


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why would anyone want a ton of random futures this year? just take the NO on kentucky if that's the game plan

 

the futures prices are way overpriced with kentucky as a 50/50 favorite, and way too much juice in them. duke at +1000 for example, normal year it might make sense but with a huge chalk let's assume kentucky wins half the time. duke would have to win 1 out of 5 of those "others" for the future to make sense! ain't gonna happen

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why would anyone want a ton of random futures this year? just take the NO on kentucky if that's the game plan

 

the futures prices are way overpriced with kentucky as a 50/50 favorite, and way too much juice in them. duke at +1000 for example, normal year it might make sense but with a huge chalk let's assume kentucky wins half the time. duke would have to win 1 out of 5 of those "others" for the future to make sense! ain't gonna happen

 

:bulb

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I bet a lot of very long futures with the expectation of hedging out of some in the elite 8 and/or Final Four.

 

Futures are always juiced heavy - this year is no different. People always say just open parlay it, which mathematically makes sense, but with limit restrictions and the likes eventually I won't be able to go all in.

 

I think Kentucky is overrated and overvalued.

 

For the record, Duke was +175 last time I checked, and I am locked in at +1050. Duke wasn't +1000 when I checked last unless I am funded at the wrong books.

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I bet a lot of very long futures with the expectation of hedging out of some in the elite 8 and/or Final Four.

 

Futures are always juiced heavy - this year is no different. People always say just open parlay it, which mathematically makes sense, but with limit restrictions and the likes eventually I won't be able to go all in.

 

I think Kentucky is overrated and overvalued.

 

For the record, Duke was +175 last time I checked, and I am locked in at +1050. Duke wasn't +1000 when I checked last unless I am funded at the wrong books.

 

think it was +750, pretty sure that's a typo! i was just using a round number...at +750 the bet is even more horrible than at +1050

 

it's ok if you're taking one flier, but every additional future you bet, and every hedge you make just costs more and more juice

 

like i said though, if you want to fade kentucky just fade kentucky without all the other monkeying around... chances are you're going to lose money even if kentucky doesn't win it by getting too cute

:cheers

 

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I'll start this off by saying I had my worst year since I started betting college basketball - ended up with a loss on the season for the first time in a long time; I noticed many had the same outcome. That said, last year I had a great year and a horrible tournament ATS - did hit the winner, saving my tournament - so maybe, this year it will be reversed and I will have a shitty season and a great tournament. I think my numbers are still pretty efficient, I just think I reacted slowly this - not making the necessary adjustments in time.

 

For starters, I have the following futures already locked in:

 

SMU: +5000

UNC: +1500

Duke: +1050

 

(Only one of these that I bet that now has value is Duke)

 

I added the following yesterday:

 

Iowa: +22500

Maryland: +8000

Texas: +12500

Okie State: +42500

 

These are the sides I played for the 1st round:

 

Ga State +9

Texas -1 1/2

SMU -4

VCU +4

New Mexico St +10 1/2

Okie State +1 1/2

 

 

I may add more later.

 

What do you like? What are you on? What are your thoughts? Good luck.

 

 

I'm vs Timely with Baylor, hopefully i could record my 1st opposite victory ever against you

I'm on Tex but everyone else is too, so worried.

SMU i like but held off due to no tourney experience

VCU i like but held off due to no feel on ohio st

NM ST idk

Okie St I'm on ORE

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why would anyone want a ton of random futures this year? just take the NO on kentucky if that's the game plan

 

the futures prices are way overpriced with kentucky as a 50/50 favorite, and way too much juice in them. duke at +1000 for example, normal year it might make sense but with a huge chalk let's assume kentucky wins half the time. duke would have to win 1 out of 5 of those "others" for the future to make sense! ain't gonna happen

 

exactly

 

this guy pissed money down the toilet with all those ridiculous random futures. SMU and Iowa to to win the national title??? LOLOLOLOLOLOL OK

 

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exactly

 

this guy pissed money down the toilet with all those ridiculous random futures. SMU and Iowa to to win the national title??? LOLOLOLOLOLOL OK

 

Based on your plays and posts, you would know better than most how to piss money down the drain so maybe you're onto something.

 

Tribe, great game by Northeastern. That little lul in the 2nd half early ended up costing them.

 

Shocked that Georgia State is leading with Hunter having 2 points and no Harrow.

 

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Baylor isn't doing shit in this tournament. They don't have someone to control the basketball. 16 turnovers already. Ga State is a good perimeter defensive team' date=' but this is terrible.[/quote']

 

Would be such a different game if Harrow was healthy enough to play. Gotta give GA St. credit for hanging in there with Ware and RJ being absolute no-shows

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Would be such a different game if Harrow was healthy enough to play. Gotta give GA St. credit for hanging in there with Ware and RJ being absolute no-shows

 

Yeah, it's brutal that I'm not going to cover this game. Hunter is overrated - I don't see the quickness to play at the next level - I was a big fan of the guy last year, but he just hasn't gotten any better.

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Yeah, it's brutal that I'm not going to cover this game. Hunter is overrated - I don't see the quickness to play at the next level - I was a big fan of the guy last year, but he just hasn't gotten any better.

 

 

It's a lot easier for him to shine when Harrow is able to drive to the hoop at will and kick it out to RJ. Without Harrow, RJ has to create his own shot and I don't think he has the talent to do that.

 

I have always wondered why mock drafts have him going at the end of the 1st round/beginning of 2nd round when I have watched Marcus Thornton for W&M the entire season create his own shot and have a very underrated quick first step when blowing by defenders, yet isn't on any mock draft radar...

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Based on your plays and posts, you would know better than most how to piss money down the drain so maybe you're onto something.

 

Tribe, great game by Northeastern. That little lul in the 2nd half early ended up costing them.

 

Shocked that Georgia State is leading with Hunter having 2 points and no Harrow.

 

"Based on my plays and posts"???

 

I am hitting, literally, close to 90% since I started posting. All documented and everyone here knows this.

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It's a lot easier for him to shine when Harrow is able to drive to the hoop at will and kick it out to RJ. Without Harrow, RJ has to create his own shot and I don't think he has the talent to do that.

 

I have always wondered why mock drafts have him going at the end of the 1st round/beginning of 2nd round when I have watched Marcus Thornton for W&M the entire season create his own shot and have a very underrated quick first step when blowing by defenders, yet isn't on any mock draft radar...

 

Difference is one 6'6 and the other will probably come in at about 6'3. Thornton is a tweener - he's like Osiris Eldridge when I was at ISU. Eldridge has the talent to play in the NBA, but he's 2 inches too short so he performed well in the D-League but never got a shot in the NBA. NBA isn't fond of 6'3 shooting guards.

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