RaiseThese Posted July 21, 2020 Report Share Posted July 21, 2020 TeddyGumshoes is still working on the 3 killed case in Florida Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rito Posted July 21, 2020 Report Share Posted July 21, 2020 It's a Bayesian stats problem, I started a thread about it before. Math aside, teddy understands the concept. Boat say virus test is 99% accurate and 1% of people have virus and we test 1ña bunch of people and you get a positive result. What is the chance you actually have the virus (ie not a false positive). Or what are the chances you do have the virus but test negative? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boatboatboat Posted July 21, 2020 Report Share Posted July 21, 2020 1% and some change Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeman Posted July 21, 2020 Report Share Posted July 21, 2020 It's a Bayesian stats problem, I started a thread about it before. Math aside, teddy understands the concept. Boat say virus test is 99% accurate and 1% of people have virus and we test 1ña bunch of people and you get a positive result. What is the chance you actually have the virus (ie not a false positive). Or what are the chances you do have the virus but test negative?if we're doing 7-800K tests a day, how many false positives are there(approx)? And i dont think current tests are 99%, more like 95-98. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rito Posted July 21, 2020 Report Share Posted July 21, 2020 1% and some changeTo which question Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boatboatboat Posted July 21, 2020 Report Share Posted July 21, 2020 what are the chances you do have the virus but test negative? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rito Posted July 21, 2020 Report Share Posted July 21, 2020 what are the chances you do have the virus but test negative?It's slightly different but close enough Now the other one, you've tested positive. What are the chances you have the virus? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boatboatboat Posted July 21, 2020 Report Share Posted July 21, 2020 98% and quite abit of change Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boatboatboat Posted July 21, 2020 Report Share Posted July 21, 2020 What I'm having trouble wrapping my mind around out of all the test that initially show incorrect results is there a higher percentage of those that shows and incorrect positive then there are ones that show an incorrect negative Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rito Posted July 21, 2020 Report Share Posted July 21, 2020 98% and quite abit of changeI will spare the math for this thread but it's more like 50%. Consider 100 tests (1 person has it). Tests will return positive on that person 99% of the time. The other 99 are negative 1% of them will test positive (approx 1 person). So 2 people have tested positive but only one has it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rito Posted July 21, 2020 Report Share Posted July 21, 2020 What I'm having trouble wrapping my mind around out of all the test that initially show incorrect results is there a higher percentage of those that shows and incorrect positive then there are ones that show an incorrect negativeBecause most people do not in fact have the Coronavirus. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rito Posted July 21, 2020 Report Share Posted July 21, 2020 Now when you are testing only people with serious symptoms then the population is probably not at 1%. But we are testing a fuck load of people that aren't symptomatic, for work or whatever reasons. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boatboatboat Posted July 21, 2020 Report Share Posted July 21, 2020 If the people tested are 50% C19 pos and 50% C19 neg. And they are tested, is the test anymore likeky to show a false pos, than a false neg? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rito Posted July 21, 2020 Report Share Posted July 21, 2020 No then you are 99% correct both way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boatboatboat Posted July 21, 2020 Report Share Posted July 21, 2020 Maybe all those big brain fellers was right???? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FISHHEAD Posted July 22, 2020 Report Share Posted July 22, 2020 COVID-19 deaths in Nevada yesterday were most yet in one day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boatboatboat Posted July 22, 2020 Report Share Posted July 22, 2020 Hoax Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeman Posted July 22, 2020 Report Share Posted July 22, 2020 COVID-19 deaths in Nevada yesterday were most yet in one day.two days in a row of 1 prior fish - what does that tell you? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FISHHEAD Posted July 22, 2020 Report Share Posted July 22, 2020 two days in a row of 1 prior fish - what does that tell you? Disaster? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FISHHEAD Posted July 23, 2020 Report Share Posted July 23, 2020 1000+ deaths today from Covid-19 in USA Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeman Posted July 23, 2020 Report Share Posted July 23, 2020 1000+ deaths today from Covid-19 in USANot bad, it was 3000+ for a month or so if you'll recall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaiseThese Posted July 23, 2020 Report Share Posted July 23, 2020 Sweet news unless you are a CoronaBro who just wants to spread negative and often false scary news CDC says actual covid case count could be 6 to 24 times higher than official estimates. If I gotta explain why that is goodnews then you are a CoronaBro https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/21/cdc-study-actual-covid-19-cases/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rito Posted July 23, 2020 Report Share Posted July 23, 2020 1000+ deaths today from Covid-19 in USANone of those people died today. 8,000 deaths in USA today not from covid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boatboatboat Posted July 27, 2020 Report Share Posted July 27, 2020 1 by 1 Ohio schools are starting to announce that this coming school year the start will be delayed and it will all be done online Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeman Posted July 27, 2020 Report Share Posted July 27, 2020 1 by 1 Ohio schools are starting to announce that this coming school year the start will be delayed and it will all be done onlineit takes courage to do the right thing, not surprising that the type of people running school districts lack courage, is it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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