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SUNDAY---PHIL/BRADY vs. TIGER/MANNING---ESPN EXPERTS make recomindations


FISHHEAD
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Mickelson/Brady (+180)

Fallica: Even though Medalist is basically Woods' home course, I'm taking the 'dog here. The way the match will be structured, we're probably getting nine holes where it will be Woods' or Mickelson's score counting, then nine holes where each partner's play will matter a lot more. And I wonder if there will be a point where Mickelson and Brady start talking on the back nine and get under the skin of Woods and Manning just a little bit.

 

One can be assured this is an event Mickelson will really want to win. It's the big stage, with marquee names and for a great cause. There aren't many players out there like Mickelson who get up for an event like this. That little bit of extra drive, motivation and trash-talking expertise could be all the difference in what should be a fun, entertaining, close match.

Bearman: As much as I would love to play the "revenge/slighted from November" card like Michael Jordan did in every episode of "The Last Dance," Woods just doesn't get up for events like this, and the value isn't there. If it was a major and Woods had been slighted or lost before, sure. If it was even money, maybe. But as we saw last year in Tiger/Phil Part I, Mickelson cares a whole lot more in events like this. He treats the matchups with Woods as Super Bowls, while Woods points to the scoreboard in majors to do his talking.

Brady has dominated Manning in their respective NFL careers, but that has absolutely nothing to do with the golf matchup, so ... sticking to golf, the course favors the short game, and that is where Mickelson shines. The course, the event and the nearly 2-1 value has me on the 'dog.

Woods/Manning (-200)

 

 

 

 

Marks: All the stars align for Woods and Manning to win. As Fallica noted, Medalist is Woods' home course, and Manning has a better handicap than Brady, who presumably has been spending more time studying Bruce Arians' Tampa Bay Buccaneers playbook than hitting balls on a driving range. Woods' driving accuracy and strokes gained on approach will be key, and his competitive nature will not allow Mickelson to go up 2-0 in these types of competitions. Strategy will be crucial on the back nine in alternate shot, and Woods' accuracy on the tight fairways will help his team dominate after the turn.

It seems like a lot of juice on Tiger/Peyton, but I don't see Phil and Tommy Boy pulling this out. However, there are prop bets that Mickelson and Brady could help you cash in on. For example, I can see Mickelson getting aggressive on the short par-4 first and posting the lone birdie. Also, Mickelson is longer off the tee than Woods and Brady is known to smack it, so look for them to dominate the par-5s.

The notable props I like (via DraftKings):

Mickelson/Brady win hole No. 1 (+335)

Mickelson birdies No. 1 (+500)

Mickelson longest drive on No. 3 (+105)

Brady longest drive on No. 3 (+105)

Woods closest to the hole on Nos. 4 and 8 (+125)

Woods and Manning holes 10-18 winners (-110)

Mickelson/Brady most par-3s won (+120)

Mickelson/Brady most par-5s won (+120).

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